Jim Thomson 
UFC 254 Fight Island.
KHABIB VS. GAETHJE.
We have an action-packed UFC fight card tonight! UFC 254 Fight Island, Khabib vs. Gaethje starts with two early preliminary fights, four dynamic preliminary fights. It follows up with six excellent fights on the main menu at Fight Island, Abu Dhabi. This is a fight card with 24 fighters scheduled to go to battle. I cannot wait to watch this massive TWELVE fight fiasco and Gaethje’s shot at the title! It is going to be epic!
In my UFC DFS lineups, I will have 100% exposure to the Main Event. The Main Event is a five-round fight. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mention category. My Main Event target will be a top play. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 254 Fight Island, Khabib vs. Gaethje.
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MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Alex Olivera -115 (DK 8500) (FD $16) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov -115 (DK 7700) (FD $14).
This is one of my favorite fights to target. The odds that this fight ends in a finish are very high. Olivera is 22-6-1 in his professional career. He has been finished in 50% of his losses and has the potential to finish his opponents, but that is where I will differ. Shavkat Rakhmonov came into this fight as a decent size underdog and has now been bet down by the public to a coinflip at -115. The public is correct, in my opinion.
Rakhmonov currently has twelve wins and zero losses in his professional fighting career. He has never been finished in his career as he is undefeated. Every one of his fights has ended inside the distance, meaning he has knocked out or submitted every opponent he has faced. Coming into his UFC debut, I feel that it will be more of the same, and Shavkat will work Olivera into the ground and finish him late in the fight.
With Shavkat coming in as an underdog, his salaries on both Draftkings and Fanduel are too low, in my opinion. He is a steal! His winning odds of -115 line up for also one of my favorite bets of the day as well. I will have minor shares of Olivera due to his KO potential, but I will not get carried away. Rakhmonov is by far my favorite value of the card on both DK and FD.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Shavkat Rakhmonov -115 (DK 7700) (FD $14). THIRD-ROUND TKO.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET:
Magomed Ankalaev -315 (DK 8900) (FD $19) vs. Ion Cutelaba +255 (DK 7300) (FD $9).
Ankalaev is lined up for another amazing performance. This UFC fight could and should be very short-lived. Ankalaev is on a four-fight winning streak, with three of those four coming by way of finish. Magomed throws some heavy strikes and could absolutely knock out anyone in his division. He has already proven he could destroy Cutelaba, as he already finished him in his most recent fight in the first-round. Magomed Ankalaev has a record of thirteen wins and only one loss, and that loss came back in 2018, where he was caught late in the third-round by a triangle choke. He has been out for blood ever since that fight.
Cutelaba has fifteen wins in his career, but he also has five losses, and out of those five losses, four of them came via finish. Three of those finishes came early into the fight. Cutelaba is another heavy hitter that could easily knock the lights out of anyone, but in this fight, I think that Ankalaev will get the better of him and catch him with a clean overhand in the first-round again. This is another fight I will have minimal shares of the opponent due to the potential for an off-chance KO. Expect this to be a repeat of their last meeting.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Magomed Ankalaev -315 (DK 8900) (FD $19) FIRST-ROUND TKO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET:
Jacob Malkoun +195 (DK 7100) (FD $10) vs. Phil Hawes -250 (DK 9100) (FD $19).
This fight is one that confuses me a bit, but not enough to fade my projected TOP SCORING fighter of the fight card. Malkoun has an overall record of four wins and zero losses. Yes, only FOUR wins in his career, and he is making his UFC debut. Jacob is a very fresh fighter with minimal experience and is lined up to make a debut in the UFC that fighters wait years and years for. Two of his four wins have come by way of KO and the other two via decision. He has not fought any big-named opponents and has not fought anyone with a ton of experience. In my opinion, he is not ready for the challenge he faces with squaring off against Phil Hawes.
Phil Hawes has a professional record of eight wins, two losses and is also making his UFC debut. Hawes is on a four-fight win streak, with every one of those coming by way of first-round knockout. Hawes is by far the more experienced fighter and is the overall better fighter, in my opinion. Phil comes out of the gate fast and with power. He can destroy his opponent by strikes or sneak them into submission. Hawes is a great all-around fighter and should have no issue with Malkoun. He should light him up with many strikes in the first-round and then finish him off with a nasty cross late in the first. I will have very small shares of Malkoun in my UFC DFS lineups, only because his pricetag is so low that you can fit other heavy favorites into your lineups.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Phil Hawes -250 (DK 9100) (FD $19). FIRST-ROUND TKO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTION:
(No specific order unless noted)
(ANOTHER TOP PLAY) Jung Da Un -340 (DK 9400) (FD $22)
(Another TOP VALUE) Tai Tuivasa -120 (DK 7900) (FD $15)
(GPP ONLY) (RISKY) Nathaniel Wood +145 (DK 7500) (FD $13)
(MAIN EVENT) Khabib Nurmagomedov -340 (DK 9200) (FD $24) (70%)
(MAIN EVENT) Justin Gaethje +265 (DK 7000) (FD $18) (30%)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s TWELVE bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 20 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of about 75 percent of my lineups. This slate is very tough to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close in skillset. I will use a hedging technique on the fights that are closer in odds. I’m focusing on building a GPP winning lineup.
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Value, Locked-In, Top Scoring, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat or you can find me on Twitter @JThomsonDFS. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
