Allan Fabrykant UFC 289
NUNES V ALDANA
Tonight’s UFC action takes us all the way to Vancouver, Canada for the first UFC event in Canada in years! Today’s card will kick off at 7:00 PM ET. There are some incredible matchups on tonight’s card and the UFC is definitely bringing an incredible show to the Great White North. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11 fights that will end with a highly anticipated return of Amanda Nunes as she defends the UFC women’s bantamweight title against Irene Aldana. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 7:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 289 Nunes vs Aldana.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Charles Oliveira vs Beneil Dariush
Former Champ Charles Oliveira is looking to bounce back after a loss to current lightweight champ Islam Makachev. This is a tough matchup between two incredible competitors. Dariush on one hand has not lost in 5 years amassing an 8 fight win streak. While prior to his loss late last year, Oliveira held an incredible 11 fight winning streak that also lasted five years and included wins against the likes of Gaethje, Poirier, Ferguson and Chandler. To sum it all up, over the last five years, these two have amassed an incredible 19-1 record. This is the matchup we deserve as fans and to say it is close is an understatement. Dariush is coming into this fight as a slight favorite and I can understand why. Dariush is one of the best all-around fighters in the UFC having Black Belts in both BJJ and Muy Thai. That versatility is giving Dariush an edge in a lot of people’s minds. I am not on the same boat as many of those folks. I think that Oliveira will be the one pushing the action in this fight and when it comes to BJJ, Oliveira’s accolades completely overshadow those of Dariush. Oliveira is a third degree BJJ Black Belt like Dariush’s coach Romulo Barral and as we have seen in the Octagon Black Belts like Ferguson were getting torn apart on the mat. Unsurprisingly, Oliveira holds the record for the most Submission wins in UFC history as 16 well ahead of Miller and Maia at 11, Benny on the other hand only holds 5 Submission wins in the UFC. All this to say that when this fight goes to the ground, Benny is going to be treading in some deep water and in my opinion it will simply be too much for him to hande. Dariush’s only clear path to victory is if he keeps Oliveira at distance with kicks and grabs a decision or a flash KO. I don’t see a scenario where grappling will end will for Dariush, and unfortunately for him, I think he’ll only be able to hold off Oliveira’s grappling for so long.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Charles Oliveira SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Mike Malott vs. Adam Fugitt
In my opinion one of the most underrated fights on this card is Mike Malott vs Adam Fugitt, Mike has had quite a journey in the UFC thus far. After one of the fastest submission finishes in DWCS history as he submitted his opponent in under 40 seconds. That was followed up by two successive first round finishes, on knockout and one submission. In tonights, matchup Malott is rightfully coming in as a clear favorite and the main question I have is how will Malott finish this fight. Throughtout his career he holds a 100% finish rate and his only loss came on the regional scene against another top Canadian UFC talent, Hakeem Dawodu. Fugitt on the other hand is 1-1 in his UFC career thus far and has yet to rise the occasion against an opponent as strong as Malott. What I like most about Malott is that he is extremley fundamentally sound, he has great form on his strikes and his grappling is at a very high level, as he too is a BJJ black belt and has been since 2020. Honestly. I think Fugitt will have a very rough night at the office and that Malott will finish him in prime time in front of his home country fans.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Mike Malott FIRST ROUND SUBMISSION (possible SECOND ROUND KO).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Blake Bilder vs. Kyle Nelson
It was very hard for me to ignore how big of an advantage Bilder will have in tonight’s matchup against Kyle Nelson. Nelson has had a rough go with things as of late, with four losses, one draw and one win over his last six UFC fights whereas his opponent tonight, Bilder, has an undefeated 8-0-1 record including a clean decision win his his UFC debut earlier this year. Honestly, I think Bilder has an easier matchup in Nelson than his previous UFC opponent Shane Young and that was a fight that he handled with ease. Nelson will seriously struggle with Bilder’s elite level grappling and like many other fights on this card, I see a submission finish in this fight. Unfortunately for Nelson, his reaction time and striking technique is not at a UFC level his strikes landed per minute rate or SLpM is at 2.85 while his strikes absorbed per minute rate or SApM is at 4.89, those stats are terrible and the damage he has taken already throughout his career will definitely have an effect on his future peformances. If he loses tonight and amasses a 1-5-1 record in the UFC, I don’t see him lasting to much longer in the UFC roster.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Blake Bilder FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order
Amanda Nunes 5 ROUNDER
Marc-Andre Barriault
Maria Oliveira FADE
David Dvorak
Aiemann Zahabi
Miranda Maverick
Nassouradine Imavov (Chris Curtis is a good underdog play for DFS)
Dan Ige
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Malott to Finish -125
Marc-Andre Barriault -138
Blake Bilder -250
Amanda Nunes -334
