Allan Fabrykant 
UFC Vegas 68
LEWIS V SPIVAC
We are back state-side for today’s Fight Night card and we have the FOUR Road to the UFC Finals taking place tonight. Today’s action will kick off at 10:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a big heavyweight scrap with a lot of implications for the belt. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 10:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 68 Lewis vs Spivak.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Jeka Saragih vs Anshul Jubli
To get this out of the way early, yes Jubli is undefeated and Saragih is not but other than that minor fact, I honestly have no clue why the odds are this close. From what I’ve seen from Saragih, he’s been MAULING guys in the Road to the UFC. First he knocked out Singh with a spinning back fist then he got the first round KO to secure this shot. Jubli on the other hand had a cancelled fight and a very questionable split decision win. Despite getting a knockdown Jubli was outstruck and it came down to a very close third round. Even prior to the third round KO, Saragih was dominating the fight both on the feet and on the ground. Saragih simply has too many weapons in his arsenal and I haven’t seen enough from Jubli to believe that he’ll be able to compete in this matchup.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jeka Saragih SECOND-ROUND KO
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Tatsuro Taira vs. Jesus Aguilar
So, to start off the night we’ll be going back to a fighter who caused a bit of a scare in his debut but completely redeemed himself in his second fight with a second round submission over CJ Vergara. Tonight, he’ll be up against a debuting fighter out of Mexico who has had a good career to date but did not fight any really top quality fighters until his Contender Series win last August. Even in that fight, he had a clear grappling advantage over his opponent. Unfortunately for Aguilar, that couldn’t be more different from his matchup tonight. He is completely outmatched in the grappling department and if the fight transitions to the ground, its Taira’s world. My main issue with Aguilar is I don’t think he’ll try to avoid the grappling and will instead roll the dice. That kind of strategy doesn’t pay off often in the UFC. Fighters need a gameplan and need to stick with their best stuff and what gives them a stylistic advantage. In short, I think this is a great matchup for Taira and Aguilar is too green to adapt to this next level of grappling.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Tatsuro Taira FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Da Un Jung vs. Devin Clark
For our final breakdown, we’re going all the way to the co-main event of the night. Let’s cut straight to the chase here. Clark is a very one dimensional fighter. He will shoot for takedowns. That’s all he’s got and to Jung’s credit he’s been taken down once in his entire UFC career and in that fight he stuffed five of Ibragimov’s six takedown attempts. With an 88% TDEF rate, he should be able to neutralize the strongest part of Clark’s attack fairly effectively. Striking-wise Jung lands over a strike more per minute than Clark and defends 10% more of the shots thrown at him than Clark. Most importantly however, is that Jung packs serious power in his punches that I don’t think Clark will be able to handle after more than one round. It’s not always about the money shot and with Jung he has found success with accumulative powerful shots that are accurate, do damage and lead to a stoppage over time. I am confident that Jung will control the tempo of this fight and eventually secure the finish.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Da Un Jung SECOND-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Derrick Lewis 5 ROUNDER (Spivac is a great fighter and I think he is a much safer plan than Lewis but Lewis only needs one shot and I don’t think that Spivak can avoid the heavy hits once Lewis makes his in-fight adjustments on top of that, the DFS value is definitely on Lewis coming in as a +190 Underdog)
Marcin Tybura
Doo Ho Choi
Yusaku Kinoshita
Jeong Yeong Lee (I get why Lee is such a favorite in this matchup. He is an extremely high intensity fighter and will most likely blow Yi out of the water early but for DFS purposes Yi can have some value since I think his odds of winning the fight improve dramatically if he can survive Lee’s early onslaught. In short, I’m siding with Lee but I’m not against playing Yi, just if you roster Yi know the risks)
Rinya Nakamura
Ji Yeon Kim FADE
Jun Yong Park
Hyun Sung Park
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area, as such I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Nakamura -450
Taira by Submission/Finish -200
Saragih by KO/Finish +162
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings! (Main Card)
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
