Allan Fabrykant UFC VEGAS 56
VOLKOV V ROZENTRUIK
We’re back after a week layoff with another edition of Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! Tonight we have a solid card with interesting fights throughout the night. Today’s slate will start at a VERY EARLY 1:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 14-fights that will end with a big heavyweight fight which has a lot of implications for the title picture. Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 1:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is acceptable but not required. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 56 Volkov vs Rozenstruik.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Karine Silva (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $16) vs. Poliana Botelho (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $15).
The odds have this as quite a close fight but from what I’ve seen I think this is a bit of a mismatch, especially when it comes to their BJJ skills. Not to discount her striking which is very technical and packed with power. Karine is making her UFC debut with 6 submission wins under her belt along with an outstanding 8 KO wins. Of course, Karine is taking a big step up in competition for her UFC debut but if we’re being honest, Botelho is not the most daunting opponent for a UFC debut. Botelho has lost three of her last four fights and these were fights that Botelho really should have won. Karine is a great prospect for the UFC and I know that her skill set will be enough to pass this test
MY UFC DFS PICK: Karine Silva (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $16). SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Erin Blanchfield (-550) (DK 9600) (FD $22) vs. JJ Aldrich (+400) (DK 6600) (FD $8).
This one shouldn’t even be close. Erin’s striking fundamentals are so far advanced over Aldrich that this one should not be close. If I were to predict exactly how this fight would go. It would start with Blanchfield establishing her jab early then slowly picking apart Aldrich with an insanely high strike count until the final bell. Aldrich currently holds a negative striking differential despite being on a three fight winning streak in the UFC. Blanchfield on the other hand is landing 5.53 SLpM and only absorbing 2.07 SLpM for an overall striking differential of 3.46. That is extremely significant in this matchup. Futhermore, Blanchfield is averaging 5 takedowns per fight with a 90% take down accuracy. This adds another layer to the fight where Blanchfield can begin to change levels on Aldrich to keep her completely out of the fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Erin Blanchfield (-550) (DK 9600) (FD $22) UNANIMOUS DECISION (Possible SECOND ROUND KNOCKOUT)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Rinat Fakhretdinov (-250) (DK 9200) (FD $20) vs. Andreas Michailidis (+200) (DK 7000) (FD $10)
Oh boy, there seems to always be one of these fights and on this card, it’s this fight. This is a complete mismatch in skillset and there’s really no way to make it any clearer, Fakhretdinov will knockout Michailidis, it just depends on whether it happens in the first or second round. Fakhretdinov is coming into his UFC debut with a 20-2-0 record and an 80% finish rate. Whereas, Michailidis is coming into this fight with 2 losses in his last three fights, with the only win coming against the non-UFC caliber KB Bhullar. Michailidis executed an interesting strategy for his last fight against Alex Pereira. Considering Pereira had a significant striking advantage due to his extensive kickboxing career, Michailidis would hold him down and grapple his way to a decision. That worked for about one round until Michailidis caught a brutal knee to the face in the second. He can’t even execute that strategy in this matchup since unlike Pereira, Fakhretdinov is very talented in the grappling department. Michailidis has no edge in this matchup and I am very confident that Fakhretdinov will get it done early.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Rinat Fakhretdinov (-250) (DK 9200) (FD $20) FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik +125 (DK 7600) (FD $17) (5 ROUNDER)
Movsar Evloev -400 (DK 9400) (FD $21)
Jeffrey Molina -175 (DK 9000) (FD $18)
Mike Triziano -250 (DK 9100) (FD $20)
Ode Osbourne -188 (DK 8900) (FD $19)
Askar Mozharov GPP +200 (DK 7500) (FD $13)
Joe Soleki -170 (DK 8800) (FD $18)
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (FADE) +100 (DK 7900) (FD $15)
Damon Jackson -600 (DK 9500) (FD $23) (Daniel Argueta DEEP GPP Play)
Benoit Saint-Denis -163 (DK 8500) (FD $17)
Tony Gravely -138 (DK 8400) (FD $16)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
