Allan Fabrykant UFC VEGAS 55
HOLM V VIEIRA
Welcome back to another edition of Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! Tonight we have a solid card with interesting fights throughout the night. Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11-fights that will end with a women’s bantamweight fight which is essentially a title eliminator. Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is acceptable but not required. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 55 Holm vs Vieira.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Polyana Viana (+110) (DK 7900) (FD $14) vs. Tabatha Ricci (-160) (DK 8300) (FD $16).
This fight is very low level in general and I think on the feet both of these fighters are very evenly matched but Viana’s skill set on the mat is what makes me confident in making her today’s value target. Viana has won her last two fights by first-round submission (both by Armbar), whereas Ricci has only won one UFC fight where she was outstruck and largely dominated the fight through her grappling. Ricci will not be able to do that against Viana tonight. Ricci was also on the receiving end of a very brutal knockout from Manon Fiorot where she was outstruck 84-17. Viana also holds better SLpM and SApM rates compared to Ricci. I think underdog odds for Viana are very lucrative here and if you’re building parlays with a bit of risk, I would strongly recommend Viana. Polyana Viana is also a viable option in DFS formats.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Polyana Viana (+110) (DK 7900) (FD $14). UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Jonathan Martinez (-250) (DK 8900) (FD $21) vs. Vince Morales (+200) (DK 7300) (FD $9).
Martinez is an extremely technical fighter and at this point has been well entrenched in the UFC roster. Despite Morales two fight-winning streak, I think his status in the roster is much less solidified. Morales has only beaten cans in the organization and I am really not confident in Morales’ skill set in this matchup. The most important weakness that scares me away from Morales is that he cannot defend kicks well at all. Unfortunately for Morales, Martinez’s game plan is heavily dominated by kicks. This will set the tone for the fight as Martinez will set the tempo of the fight with his kicks and ultimately use them to get a decisive advantage over Morales. My one concern with this matchup is that Martinez drags this out to a comfortable decision.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jonathan Martinez (-250) (DK 8900) (FD $21) SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Jailton Almeida (-600) (DK 9400) (FD $22) vs. Parker Porter (+450) (DK 6800) (FD $20)
There’s a huge difference in skill in this matchup. Parker is now fairly washed and Almeida is a fiery new prospect who already has a first-round KO in the UFC under his belt, just three months ago. Almeida was initially set to fight Maxim Grishin on this card and has been gifted a much easier matchup in Porter. Almeida has a stronger skill set both on the feet and on the ground. So, no matter how this fight plays out, I don’t see this fight lasting long and I don’t see Porter lasting too long before Almeida puts him out.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jailton Almeida (-600) (DK 9400) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Ketlen Vieira +200 (DK 7100) (FD $13) (5 ROUNDER) (Holly Holm is an excellent option but the value in this fight is on Vieira)
Santiago Ponzinibbio +125 (DK 8000) (FD $15) (This is a very interesting dog pick, both fighters in this one are very evenly matched but my concern for Pereira is the same concern that I’ve always had with him. Low fight IQ, he actively puts himself in unnecessarily risky positions for entertainment purposes. He cannot fight like that against someone with the skill and power of Ponzinibbio)
Chidi Njokuani -250 (DK 8700) (FD $22) (Dusko Todorovic is an ok underdog play for DFS purposes)
Uros Medic +110 (DK 7800) (FD $12) (Extremely close fight here, the value is squarely on Medic and I think he gets the KO in this one. Medic will have to be very careful with his cardio)
Jun Yong Park -200 (DK 9000) (FD $19)
Joseph Holmes (FADE) -200 (DK 8800) (FD $19) (I really don’t think either fighter is really strong here but Amedovski has struggled a lot in the UFC compared to when he was a finishing machine in Bellator. Don’t count Alen out but realistically, I’d just fade this fight)
Felipe Colares -200 (DK 8600) (FD $18) (Although it wouldn’t be extremely surprising if Hooper pulled out the win here, I think the UFC finally matched Hooper up with someone that he’ll struggle against. As per usual, Hooper cannot punch to save his life and will rely heavily on his jiu-jitsu to get him through this one)
Elise Reed (FADE) -160 (DK 8500) (FD $17) (Elise is ok and Hughes should legitimately be cut from the UFC. This fight has decision written all over it.)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
