Allan Fabrykant UFC VEGAS 54
BLACHOWICZ V RAKIC
What a card last week! We saw Oliveira prove his skills and we saw a new women’s champ in Carla Esparza! Tonight’s slate has some interesting matchup with lots of ranking implications and we also have two highly touted rookie fighters on tonight’s small card in Diaz prospect Nick Maximov and DWCS Alumni Jake Hadley. Today’s slate will start at 7:30 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 11-fights that will end with a light-heavyweight fight with a lot of title implications! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 7:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is acceptable. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 54 Blachowicz v. Rakic
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Amanda Ribas (+162) (DK 7600) (FD $12) vs. Kaitlin Chookagian (-188) (DK 8600) (FD $18).
Ribas was on quite the hype train in the Strawweight Division last year but hasn’t fought since her UD win over Virna Jandiroba. Other than losses to Polyana Viana (on the Regional Scene) and Marina Rodriguez, Ribas has been nearly unbeatable against Strawweights. Unfortunately, this fight is taking place a weight class up in the flyweight division which means that Kaitlin will have a noticeable height advantage in tonight’s fight. Although, that is the main reason why Chookagian is the favourite in this one, I still think Ribas has some of the best striking in the Strawweight divison (pretty much just behind Marina) and to count her out of any fight is not wise. If Ribas manages to win here, it’ll be a statement win and will set her up nicely for the title conversation. Unlike many of the underdogs on tonight’s card, I’m relatively comfortabe in siding with Ribas’ skillset besides the fact that I am fully aware as to why she is the underdog in tonight’s matchup. If you’re building lines on DFS, you’ll need those value plays to come through like Ribas. On top of that, this fight will most likely head to a decision so regardless we are dealing with a very safe floor for DFS.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Amanda Ribas (+162) (DK 7600) (FD $12). UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Nick Maximov (-400) (DK 9300) (FD $23) vs. Andrei Petroski (+300) (DK 6900) (FD $8).
In watching their tape, I just see a stark difference in skill set between these two fighters, Petroski had a decent run in the Ultimate Fighter but ultimately found his way into the UFC roster by crushing cans like Micheal Gillmore and Yaozong Hu. Now, I bet on Petroski when he went up against those fighters because his skillset was not my driving factor in the decision making process. In this matchup, Petroski’s skills will actively be tested by Maximov in ways that Gillmore and Hu simply weren’t able to do. Maximov has excellent grappling skills and in my opinion has a clear edge on the ground over Petroski who we have seen submitted on the Ultimate Fighter against eventual Ultimate Fighter, Bryan Battle. Maximov has not been finishing fights since entering the UFC which makes me believe that he may struggle a bit with actually putting Petroski away but I am confident that at the end of the fight Maximov will have his hand raised.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Nick Maximov (-400) (DK 9300) (FD $23) SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
(This fight was cancelled two weeks ago and is now on this card, the same breakdown still applies)
Tatsuro Taira (-250) (DK 9000) (FD $21) vs. Carlos Candelario (+200) (DK 7200) (FD $10).
Both of these fighters will be making their UFC debuts on tonight’s card and interestingly enough Candelario is coming into the UFC on a split decision loss in his most recent fight (which also happened to be on the Dana White’s Contender Series). His opponent is one of the most highly touted prospects coming out of Japan, Tatsuro Taira. Taira has a perfect 10-0-0 record with seven of those wins coming by first-round submission, so it should come as no surprise where Taira’s skill set lies. He’s got a lethal arsenal of front chokes and back chokes and although Candelario will be his biggest test to date, he should pass it with flying colours.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Tatsuro Taira (-250) (DK 9000) (FD $21) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Aleksandar Rakic -188 (DK 8700) (FD $22) (5 ROUNDER)
Ion Cutelaba -225 (DK 8900) (FD $19)
Davey Grant -275 (DK 9100) (FD $22)
Manuel Torres -138 (DK 8300) (FD $16)
Jake Hadley -220 (DK 8800) (FD $20)
Andrea Lee (FADE) -125 (DK 8200) (FD $16)
Michael Johnson -150 (DK 8400) (FD $17) (One of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC but is up against Alan Patrick who is terrible and may get cut after this fight)
Virna Jandiroba -188 (DK 8500) (FD $19)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
