Allan Fabrykant UFC VEGAS 53
FONT V VERA
We’re back with an interesting UFC card this weekend. Although like last week it may not have a lot of names that are notable right away there are some really interesting matchups and some names to watch for the future, including my personal favourite fighter Natan Levy! Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. After a lot of surprises in the last card with a late cancellation and a 1st round, DQ let’s hope tonight’s card goes much smoother! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12-fights that will end with a fight that has a lot of implications for the bantamweight division! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is acceptable. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 53 Font vs Vera
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Jake Collier (+110) (DK 7800) (FD $14) vs. Andrei Arlovski (-138) (DK 8400) (FD $17).
Oh wow… who would’ve thought that the ageless wonder Old Man Arlovski would still have a number by his name at the age of 43. That in and of itself is an incredible feat and adds to the illustrious career of Arlovski. Let’s face facts though, he is not what he used to be. He gasses out rather quickly, he doesn’t hit quite as hard and his chin is um suspect. All that being said… Collier is worse. Collier wins just enough against guys like Sherman (more on him later) and Villante to barely keep himself in the UFC but a loss against Arlovski would be more than enough justification to finally cut Collier for good. Collier has all of the same weaknesses as Arlovski without any of the excuses. Arlovski truly has nothing left to prove but if anyone is making a run at the top in their 40s it would be Arlovski. I only see this fight going past three rounds so I would recommend taking the fight going the distance at (-188). Either side of this fight is pretty risky but if you are looking at it for DFS purposes, go for the Pitbull Arlovski.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Andrei Arlovski (-138) (DK 8400) (FD $17). UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Alexandr Romanov (-2500) (DK 9600) (FD $23) vs. Chase Sherman (+1100) (DK 6600) (FD $8).
(This fight was booked last week and got moved to this week late in the card due to a minor health issue from Sherman. Everything below still applies)
This is Chase Sherman’s last fight in the UFC and this matchup is his walking paper. Sherman has dropped his last three fights, only beating Ike Villanueva in the UFC his losses came against Old Man Arlovski, Parker Porter and Jake Collier. Not exactly a who’s who of the heavyweight division. This fight however is against one of the biggest heavyweight prospects in the UFC with a perfect 15-0-0 record including a win against fellow heavyweight prospect Juan Espino. To put this as simply as possible, Sherman does not stand a chance. Romanov has excellent power, a surprisingly strong ground game for a heavyweight and crisp fight IQ. Not to mention, Sherman is coming into this fight on short notice after Tanner Boser dropped off this weekend’s card. Statistically, they’re not even close, Romanov easily edges out Sherman in all major stat categories. The only thing going for Sherman is his 77% takedown defence rate but he has not fought someone with the takedown abilities of Romanov. This will be another pit stop on Romanov’s rise to the top of the heavyweight division.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alexandr Romanov (-2500) (DK 9600) (FD $23) FIRST-ROUND KO (possible FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Tatsuro Taira (-250) (DK 9200) (FD $22) vs. Carlos Candelario (+200) (DK 7000) (FD $9).
Both of these fighters will be making their UFC debuts on tonight’s card and interestingly enough Candelario is coming into the UFC on a split decision loss in his most recent fight (which also happened to be on the Dana White’s Contender Series). His opponent is one of the most highly touted prospects coming out of Japan, Tatsuro Taira. Taira has a perfect 10-0-0 record with seven of those wins coming by first-round submission, so it should come as no surprise where Taira’s skill set lies. He’s got a lethal arsenal of front chokes and back chokes and although Candelario will be his biggest test to date, he should pass it with flying colours.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Tatsuro Taira (-250) (DK 9200) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Marlon Vera +100 (DK 7900) (FD $16) (5 ROUNDER) (I was in on Font before yesterday, he came in well overweight and did not look good on the scales, I am assuming he had a rough weight cut and it could come back to haunt him tonight. Something must’ve been really wrong as this was Font’s first weight miss of his career and it was significant.)
Andre Fili -250 (DK 9300) (FD $21)
Grant Dawson -163 (DK 8700) (FD $19)
Darren Elkins (FADE) -163 (DK 8600) (FD $19)
Krzystof Jotko -175 (DK 8800) (FD $18) (Meerschaert has a path to victory with the submission game, he is very viable for DFS, for parlays, I would leave this fight alone entirely)
Daniel da Silva -138 (DK 8200) (FD $15) (Although he had a rough debut against Jeff Molina, anyone would, the fact that the UFC put him up against Molina for his UFC debut says a lot. My one concern is da Silva’s cardio, which was enough to keep him off the main part of the article. He should have good chances against Fransisco who is not as good as his brother Deyverson)
Yohan Lainesse GPP +110 (DK 7700) (FD $15)
Natan Levy -188 (DK 9000) (FD $21) (I’m biased but Breeden is absolutely terrible)
Gina Mazany (FADE) -175 (DK 8900) (FD $20)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
