Allan Fabrykant UFC VEGAS 51
LUQUE V MUHAMMAD 2
What a card last week!! We went a crazy 11 for 12 on last weeks card, with the only fight we got wrong being a Split Decision. Today’s slate will start at 5:30 PM ET. After two title fights and the people’s main event last week we are coming into tonight with a lot of underrated plays and interesting matchups! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 14-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 5:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is acceptable. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 51 Luque vs Muhammad 2
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Trey Ogden (-138) (DK 8300) (FD $16) vs. Jordan Leavitt (+110) (DK 7900) (FD $15).
To start off the article we have an interesting matchup between debutant and former Fury FC Lightweight Champ Trey Ogden vs Jordan Leavitt who has had a couple of impressive UFC wins with his slam against Matt Wiman and his inverted Triangle Choke against Matt Sayles. Unfortunately for Leavitt, the flashiness has come at a cost, at times his fundamentals are very lacking and more well-rounded fighters have been able to get an edge on Leavitt as we saw when Claudio Puelles essentially held him down for their entire fight. One look at Ogden’s fights and you’ll know that he is more than comfortable transitioning the fight to the ground as he has secured 10 submissions in his 15 MMA wins. I think we are going to see a bit of a grapple-fest but if the fight does end up on the feet I am more comfortable with Ogden’s stand up game over Leavitt’s, on top of that, I feel that Ogden has a more well-rounded ground game and will come up on top during their grappling exchanges. I will also make it an important point that if Leavitt is lazy with his grappling or his takedowns, Ogden is the kind of fighter who can and will capitalize.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Trey Ogden (-138) (DK 8300) (FD $16). UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Drakkar Klose (-600) (DK 9400) (FD $23) vs. Brandon Jenkins (+450) (DK 6800) (FD $8).
Here we have the biggest mismatch of the entire slate, and for good reason too. Let me just put it out there before we start, Jenkins is not UFC material, not even close. It says a lot that the bookies still have Klose as a massive favourite despite him not fighting since 2020 when he was on the wrong end of a comeback win against Beneil Dariush who is now at the top of the UFC’s lightweight division. For those who remember, we were supposed to have a fight with Klose almost exactly one year ago, until tough guy Jeremy Stephens went for a cheap shove during faceoffs causing the fight to be postponed after the slate had locked. Before the Dariush fight, Klose was laying out some absolute pros such as Lando Vanatta and Bobby Green (close fight), and it’s pretty safe to say that this one should not be close on the feet nor on the ground. Klose also has a very impressive defensive game and I don’t see a way for Jenkins to put any pressure on Klose. This fight provides Klose with a great opportunity to make another run at the top and I do think that he has the quality to break into the rankings despite getting up there in age. It’ll all start for him with a statement win this weekend over Jenkins.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Drakkar Klose (-600) (DK 9400) (FD $23) SECOND-ROUND KO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Miguel Baeza (-175) (DK 8700) (FD $18) vs. Andre Fialho (+150) (DK 7500) (FD $12).
My boy, Miguel Baeza is back! After a rough 2021, Baeza has been granted an excellent matchup on this week’s card against Andre Fialho, both have very similar styles and I really don’t see this fight leaving the feet for as long as it lasts. I have been impressed with Baeza’s boxing fundamentals while Fialho has been less impressive. As Fialho’s fight with Pereira went on I could see his overall game deteriorate with his cardio as he proceeded to get picked apart by the flashy Brazilian over the later two rounds. To his credit, Baeza also has a well-developed jiu-jitsu game in his back pocket as we saw him nearly finish Williams on multiple occasions in their fight. The biggest difference between these two fighters however is their cardio, I feel much more comfortable with Baeza in the later rounds and I think that it’s even likelier that he nails a finish in the late second or even in the third round as Fialho’s style begins to deteriorate. All in all, I think this will be a bounce-back fight for the young MMA Masters produce.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Miguel Baeza (-175) (DK 8700) (FD $18) SECOND-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Vincent Luque (5 ROUNDER) -175 (DK 8500) (FD $21)
Pat Sabbatini -550 (DK 9200) (FD $22)
Martin Buday -250 (DK 9000) (FD $19) (Do not play Chris Barnett…)
Mayra Bueno Silva -450 (DK 9300) (FD $21)
Alateng Heili -175 (DK 8800) (FD $18)
Mounir Lazzez -188 (DK 8800) (FD $19)
Pannie Kianzad -400 (DK 9100) (FD $20)
Devin Clark -170 (DK 8600) (FD $17)
Gadzhi Omargadzhiev -138 (DK 8400) (FD $16) (Caio Borralho is a very solid GPP play)
Rafa Garcia -110 (DK 8200) (FD $15) (Jesse Ronson is a good GPP Play)
Istela Nunes -220 (DK 8900) (FD $20)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
