Allan Fabrykant UFC Vegas 50
SANTOS V ANKALAEV
We’re back after a crazy numbered card last week. We at WinDaily had a great night and we got some nice value, especially on Maryna Moroz! Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Today’s slate has some really interesting matchups with some heavy hitters and absolute killers stacked through the card! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 14-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is acceptable. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Vegas 50 Santos vs Ankalaev.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Terrance McKinney (+137) (DK 7900) (FD $11) vs. Drew Dober (-163) (DK 8300) (FD $19).
For those wondering, yes this is the same McKinney that fought two weeks ago and YES this is the second time that McKinney is list as our value target of the week. Last time he was at even money and came away with a first round RNC over Fares Ziam. Tonight, he’s hopping back in the octagon with Drew Dober on short notice. Unlike most short notice fights, McKinney is going on the quick turnaround and is coming into this fight very fit. Dober has fought some solid competition over his last two fights but hasn’t won a fight since 2020 with his biggest win coming against Alexander Hernandez. McKinney is in for his toughest test tonight but the bookies are still showing him no respect. Dober has had some struggles on the ground having been submitted four times since joining the UFC. McKinney averages over three takedowns a fight and with Dober’s takedown defense at a mere 55% he may have trouble with McKinney’s ground game. It is safe to say that this is a much closer fight than the bookies would have you believe and that McKinney has been undervalued again.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Terrance McKinney (+137) (DK 7900) (FD $11). SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Damon Jackson (-110) (DK 9600) (FD $16) vs. Kamuela Kirk (-110) (DK 6600) (FD $15).
For the second fight we will look at tonight we have another short notice matchup as Kamuela Kirk came in to replace Joshua Culibao. Kirk will be making his second UFC appearance after a decision win against Makwan Amirkhani last year. Kirk’s last fight was not very entertaining and he was taken down five times over fifteen minutes, with Amirkhani having ground control for over six minutes of the fight. Jackson is a strong BJJ practicioner and if Kirk gives him anywhere near that much time to work on the ground Kirk’s night is as good as over. Damon doesn’t have the strongest style but he can wear his opponents down with his grappling and take advantage of any openings his opponents give him. As the fight goes on, the more I’ll like Jackson. Damon Jackson is criminally underrated and for a fighter who has a good all around skill set I am strongly favouring his chances against the relatively green Kamuela Kirk.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Damon Jackson (-110) (DK 9600) (FD $16) SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Azamat Murzakanov (-188) (DK 9100) (FD $20) vs. Tafon Nchukwi (+162) (DK 7100) (FD $10).
Now we didn’t get to see a lot of Murzakanov during his Contender Series bout but what we did see was more than impressive. It took him only three minutes to knock his opponent clear out in one of the more ruthless knockouts I’ve ever seen on the Contender Series. What’s interesting about Murzakanov is that he can mix up his heavy striking with strong grappling, a combo that is a nightmare for a fighter like Nchukwi who can tend to tire out in his fights. Of course, both fighters have tremendous power but I would give the technique edge to Murzakanov. It’ll be interesting to see how Nchukwi attempts to handle the takedown attempts and the overall pressure from Murzakanov but from what I have seen from both fighters, I don’t see this one lasting very long.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Azamat Murzakanov (-188) (DK 9100) (FD $20) FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Magomed Ankalaev (5 ROUNDER) -550 (DK 9600) (FD $23)
Song Yadong -275 (DK 9200) (FD $22)
Khalil Roundtree +100 (DK 8000) (FD $15)
Sodiq Yusuff (FADE) -250 (DK 9100) (FD $21)
Alex Pereira -188 (DK 8900) (FD $20)
Javid Basharat -160 (DK 8700) (FD $18)
Miranda Maverick -350 (DK 9400) (FD $22)
Guido Cannetti GPP +125 (DK 7600) (FD $12)
Matt Semelsberger -200 (DK 9300) (FD $20) (AJ Fletcher GPP)
Gillian Robertson (FADE) -138 (DK 8500) (FD $21)
Dalcha Lungiambula -125 (DK 8300) (FD $17) (Cody Brundage GPP)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
*NEW* PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
