Allan Fabrykant UFC on ESPN 46
KARA-FRANCE v ALBAZI
After a break week from UFC action, we’re back in Vegas for a card thats jam packed with action! Today’s card will kick off at 6:00 PM ET. There are a lot of interesting and exciting fights in this one! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13 fights that will end with a mens flyweight fight between two fighters looking to make a splash into the top 3 of the division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 46 Kara-France vs Albazi.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Muin Gafurov vs John Castaneda
Gafurov is making his UFC debut following two impressive performances in LFA, a well-respected UFC feeder league. He also appeared in the Contender Series back in 2021 where he lost a close split decision. Now, Gafurov is getting his chance and it comes against a fighter who has really struggled to put things together as of late. He’s gone 2-2 over his last four UFC fights with his last fight being a savage knockout at the hands of Daniel Santos back in late 2022. Gafurov has a wide range of strikes in his arsenal including spinning kicks and punches that pack a surprising amount of power. Although I think it’ll start slow at first, I think Gafurov finds his timing in the second round and puts Casteneda away.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Muin Gafurov SECOND-ROUND KO.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Jim Miller vs. Jesse Butler
At nearly 40 years old, A-10 has still been grinding at the top level. He’s already got one fight under his belt this year and for his second bout he had two opponents drop out on this card. Despite that, he was able to find a matchup on short notice against regional standout Jesse Butler. Unfortunately for Butler, he has not faced anyone with pedigree of Miller who currently holds 11 submission wins in the UFC tied for the second most in UFC history. I think it’s going to be hard to see him not get submission #12 with this matchup. When grappling with Jim Miller, you’re simply in his world and taking nothing against Butler but he is in way over his head with this matchup. Despite, Miller’s age, he’s a clear favourite in this matchup for a reason. (For DraftKings users, he was priced for his old matchup, so he’s heavily discounted.)
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jim Miller SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Jamie Mullarkey vs. Muhammadjon Naimov
First and foremost, Mullarkey is an absolute savage and has come up big for us multiple times in underdog spots like against Khama Worthy and Devonte Smith. In this spot, there was no way I could ignore him. His opponent is a former Contender Series challenger Muhammadjon Naimov. He came up short against Collin Anglin who himself had a very underwhelming run in the UFC going 0-4 after the win against Naimov. Since the Contender Series fight, Naimov has been able to rack up a few wins but the competition he was facing is nowhere near the level of Mullarkey. Also of note is that this fight is a short notice matchup like the Miller fight as Mullarkey was initially matched up against Guram Kutateladze which originally had Mullarkey coming in as a big underdog. Honestly, there is levels to mixed martial arts and Mullarkey’s level is simply far superior to Naimov’s, I expect Mullarkey to take care of business quite handily in this matchup. (Like the last fight, DraftKings users have BIG VALUE on Mullarkey who is listed on the slate with his price vs Guram when he should be coming in as the most expensive fighter on the slate but is instead coming in as the third cheapest fighter.)
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jamie Mullarkey FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order
Amir Albazi 5 ROUNDER
Maxim Grishin
Tim Elliott
Elise Reed FADE
Luan Lacerda
Daniel Santos
Andrei Arlovski
Abubakar Nurmagomedov
Karine Silva
Alex Caceres FADE
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Muin Gafurov +100
Jamie Mullarkey -450
Luan Lacerda -150
Daniel Santos -220
