Allan Fabrykant UFC on ESPN 44
HOLLOWAY V ALLEN
After a whirlwind of a card last week, we are off to Kansas City to catch today’s UFC on ESPN card! Today’s action will kick off at 5:30 PM ET. Rematches, rising prospects and long-awaited returns. This card has a lot of close and interesting matchups for us to enjoy!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 14 fights that will end with a matchup between two top 5 fighters in the UFC Featherweight division. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 5:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 44 Holloway vs Allen.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Edson Barboza vs Billy Quarantillo
Let’s get this out of the way first, Barboza has been slipping a bit as of late. Although, it was against strong competition, he did lose his last two fights, whereas Billy Q has won two of his last three. This is all to say that I don’t think previous fight results tell the tale of how this fight is going to go. I think talent will. Barboza holds two black belts in both Muy Thai and Taekwondo as well as a Brown Belt in BJJ while Billy only has a Black belt in BJJ. Now, some would look at this fight and say that Barboza is simply too old, and that it’s a major reason for his decline and although he is 37, Billy is 34. Barboza’s age may have taken him out of the title conversation but it hasn’t made him uncompetitive. Not to mention, I haven’t been fully comfortable betting on Billy since I saw his loss to Tucker. In what seemed like a close fight on paper, Billy Q was absolutely dismantled in every aspect of MMA for 15 minutes, he was outstruck, he has no successful takedowns despite three attempts and was taken down seven times. I think Barboza can produce a similar result here where he is one step ahead of Billy for the entire 15 minutes.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Edson Barboza UNANIMOUS DECISION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Zak Cummings vs. Ed Herman
Both of these fighters are middle of the roster at this point and it is not likely that either will ever compete for a title given their age. Herman has only been in the Octagon twice since 2019 and in his most recent fight nearly two years ago, he lost via unanimous decision to Alonzo Mennifield. The same can be said for Cummings as he hasn’t fought since 2020. Now, although Cummings is moving up in weight, Herman doesn’t really hold any size or reach advantage. I also see better fundamentals out of Cummings compared to Herman. Especially as Herman got older (he’s 42 now) he’s throwing more looping punches and has had some seriously concerning cardio in his last fight. Both fighters hold BJJ Black Belts with Cummings having a higher degree belt however, I don’t see that being much of a factor here. I think we will have 15 minutes of stand up where Herman will eventually slow down and Cummings will take control of the fighy.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Zak Cummings UNANIMOUS DECISION.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Gaston Bolanos vs. Aaron Phillips
“DreamKiller” Bolanos is set to make his UFC debut tonight against Aaron Phillips, a fighter who is coming off a loss upon his return to the UFC. Both Bolanos and Phillips are proficient in Kicking martial arts with Bolanos being a professional Muy Thai fighter prior to jumping into MMA and Phillips holding a 4th degree Black Belt in Taekwondo. Prior to entering the UFC, Bolanos competed in the Bellator organization where he racked up a record of 6 wins and 3 losses including a spinning elbow KO and an incredible right hook knockout with one second left in the round during his last fight under the Bellator banner. That performance earned him a shot in the UFC and considering some of the matchups other fighters have gotten in their UFC debuts, Bolanos really lucked out. Despite four fights, Phillips does not hold a single UFC win, nor does he hold a win against a single strong fighter. Many of Phillips’ opponents held losing records when he fought them and none of his wins have had any UFC experience. It is safe to say that the jump in competition when one enters the UFC is very significant and Phillips has not proven that he can compete in that level. I think that Bolanos is very game and will try to put this one away early.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Gaston Bolanos FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Max Holloway 5 ROUNDER
Dustin Jacoby (Azmat Murzakanov is undefeated but this is a massive step up in competition for him, if anyone is taking that zero from him, it’ll be Jacoby. With that being said, Muzakanov is a decent GPP play but I still expect Jacoby to get it done)
Ion Cutelaba (Tanner Boser is terrible, since his fight against Arlovski, I’ve never had faith in him again, and he’s proven me right time and time again by losing to Illir Latifi and Rodrigo Nascimento)
Chris Gutierrez
Bill Algeo
Rafa Garcia
Matheus Nicolau (I do like Brandon Royval as an underdog here as well. He’s a solid Deep GPP play)
Piera Rodriguez (This one is close, many would lead towards Robertson because of her strong grappling but I think Piera has a decided advantage on the feet and can keep the fight there. I wouldn’t put money on this fight as there are too many unknowns but both fighters can hold DFS value)
Daniel Zellhuber
Bruna Brasil
Lucie Pudilova (Her opponent Edwards came in 0.5 lbs overweight)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Gaston Bolanos to Finish +115
Max Holloway -250
Bill Algeo -450
