Allan Fabrykant UFC on ESPN 37
KATTAR V EMMETT
Welcome back everyone to Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! What a card last week, it was completely packed with actions and despite a few surprises, we had some great hits including the Prochazka RNC with 30 seconds left! Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 14-fights that will end with a super high stakes featherweight including some interesting fights up and down the card. Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 37 Kattar vs Emmett.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Jeremiah Wells (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $15) vs. Court McGee (-125) (DK 8200) (FD $15).
Court McGee is the king of Decisions, his past 9 fights (since 2016), win or loss have all ended by decision. Wells offers a very unique challenge to McGee as not only does he have the power to put out a seasoned vet like Wallery Alves on his short notice UFC debut but he also has a BJJ black belt and a very clean RNC technique that he’s already pulled off in four of his 13 professional fights, including his last UFC fight. Statistically, Wells holds a noticeably higher striking differential (albeit based on a small sample) and a 13% higher strike accuracy. Wells has a seasoned record which includes titles reigns in both Cage Fury and CES. Although this fight could reach the judges cards, between these two fighters, the one with fight ending potential is definitely Jeremiah Wells, whether it be via KO or RNC.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jeremiah Wells (+100) (DK 8000) (FD $15). SECOND ROUND KO. (possible RNC or possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Cody Stamann (-600) (DK 9500) (FD $23) vs. Eddie Wineland (+450) (DK 6700) (FD $8).
This fight has one primary storyline. It surrounds the fact that Stamann is a very talented grappler and will take down someone with the wrestling skill level of Wineland at ease and cruise his way to a decision win. Wineland has dropped four of his last five fights with his last win coming in 2019 against Grigory Popov who no longer competes in the UFC. Wineland’s striking pattern is very easy to read and he throws with low volume. Wineland’s 45% TDEF will also come back to haunt him in this one as Stamann is a different breed of wrestler. Wineland has had a solid UFC career spanning all the way back to 2006 but now at 37 years old, this will most likely be his last walk to the Octagon. For what its worth Stamann has dropped his last three fights and he’s been given an extremely favorable matchup tonight to get his UFC career back on track.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Cody Stamman (-600) (DK 9500) (FD $23) UNANIMOUS DECISION
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Kevin Holland (-334) (DK 8900) (FD $20) vs. Tim Means (+250) (DK 7300) (FD $10)
Kevin Holland is arguably one of the most entertaining fighters in the UFC and unlike soem others, Holland can back up his talk with legitimate talent. Holland has a very versatile striking skill set with his rangey kicks, distrance strikes and targeted head shots that always keeps his opponents on edge. Holland also holds a decent striking output in his fights at +1.46. He has a tendency to overwhelm his opponents and can also catch them off guard while lulling them into a vulnerable position with his distracting fight style (he talks a lot…). This also can hurt him as his Fight IQ has suffered at times as a result of his in-octagon antics, especially against talented grapplers like Vettori and Brunson, Tim Means on the other hand doesn’t reach the same threat level in my mind. Holland will also hold a height and reach advantage over Means in this matchup. The botton line is, Holland should have an easy night at the office tonight, as long as he doesn’t get KO’d by headbutt again…
MY UFC DFS PICK: Kevin Holland (-334) (DK 8900) (FD $20) FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Calvin Kattar -225 (DK 8800) (FD $21) (5 ROUNDER)
Joe Lauzon +140 (DK 7900) (FD $14) (This one was between someone with a lot of Ring Rust and a washed-up version of Cowboy, realistically I don’t know if Lauzon is UFC calibre but I know Cowboy is not. This is an ideal fight for Lauzon to jump back into the UFC scene considering he hasn’t fought since 2019!)
Albert Duraev -225 (DK 8600) (FD $18) (Joaquin Buckley is a good underdog play for DFS, high ceiling with his KO power, Buckley is significantly outmatched on the ground though)
Guram Kutateladze +140 (DK 7800) (FD $14) (Damir is a solid choice, DFS wise I do not like Damir, he’ll try to grapple his way to a decision, Guram has all the value, Not only is he one of Khamzat’s training partners but he took Mateusz Gamrot’s 0 on short notice! Odds are Ismagulov will have an advantage on the ground but Guram is capable of a lot, has a clear path to victory and has the DFS value in this one)
Jasmine Jasudavicius (FADE) -250 (DK 9100) (FD $18)
Adrian Yanez -275 (DK 9400) (FD $22)
Gloria de Paula (FADE) -275 (DK 9200) (FD $19)
Kyle Daukaus -275 (DK 8700) (FD $19)
Phil Hawes -275 (DK 9000) (FD $20) (Even though I have Hawes, don’t count out Deron Winn)
Ricardo Ramos -334 (DK 9300) (FD $22)
Gregory Rodrigues -175 (DK 8500) (FD $17) (This one was very close, to me it came down to the strength of schedule and with RoboCop coming up to a split decision loss against Petrosyan in his last fight. That’s impressive, even in a loss. Although, the Jordan Williams loss from 2020 aged poorly, Marquez has fought cans and has a loss to Alessio Di Chirico)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Any 3/4 Combo of these five picks work well!
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
