Allan Fabrykant UFC Fight Night 221
YAN v DVALISHVILI
After one of the best cards of the year in UFC 285, we now go to Paradise, Nevada to catch today’s bouts. Today’s action will kick off at 3:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13 fights that will end with a top 5 bantamweight fight that had fireworks before the two fighters even stepped into the Octagon. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 3:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Night 221 Yan vs Dvalishvili.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Lucasz Brzeski vs Karl Williams
To clear the air on where both fighters stand here. Brzeski is coming into his second UFC fight after entering through the Contender Series, in his first bout he lost a very close split decision to Martin Buday where Brzeski outstruck him 118-66. Williams is making his UFC debut after a decision win on the contender series where he came in as the underdog and proceeded to control his opponent for over 10 minutes of the fight. Vegas odds have Williams coming in as a -250 favorite here and I think that is simply absurd. This is a much closer fight in my opinion and if I had to lean one way on it, I would lean toward Brzeski. Williams has not fought a single notable fighter and Brzeski will definitely be his toughest opponent.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Lucasz Brzeski UNANIMOUS DECISION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Vitor Petrino vs. Anton Turkalji
Petrino is making his UFC debut after scoring a comeback second-round KO in the Contender Series to keep his perfect, 7-0-0 record intact. Turkalji also had a perfect record coming into his last fight, his UFC debut against Jailton Almeida where he was demolished in about 30 seconds. Although I don’t think Petrino will be able to replicate the same domination that Almeida had, I think that Petrino will hold a clear striking advantage in this fight. My main concern for Petrino is Turkalji’s takedown attempts. He will shoot for them a lot, especially if the fight is not going his way. All this to say that I hope Petrino has drilled takedown defence in his fight camp and is prepared for any surprises Turkalji might throw at him. Overall though, I see Petrino taking this fight easily.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Vitor Petrino SECOND ROUND KO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Sedriques Dumas vs. Josh Fremd
Dumas will be bringing his perfect 7-0-0 record into the octagon today against Josh Fremd. Out of his seven fights, Dumas has finished six of them, including four in the first round. The last time we saw Fremd, he was getting handled by Tresean Gore and if Gore was able to take care of him that easily, I don’t think Fremd will have a prayer against Dumas. Whether it’s his quick hands or his grappling ability (BJJ Purple Belt). I think Dumas is well-rounded enough to get the job done quickly here. While Fremd is on the verge of being let go as if he loses tonight, he’ll be 0-3-0 in the Octagon.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Sedriques Dumas FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Petr Yan 5 ROUNDER (I won’t get into what caused the scuffle, but the bottom line is, emotions will be high in this one. I think we will see a usual routine that we see in a lot of Yan’s fights, a slow first, then once he has his reads, he explodes from there. This fight has a lot of important tension behind it, but at the end of the day, Yan is a gifted Muy Thai specialist, and I think he’ll have a clear advantage in this matchup. Especially considering Merab is a close teammate of Aljo’s, I think there will be many layers to the background of this fight.)
Alexandr Romanov (Battle of the Alex’s as Moldova’s Romanov goes against Russia’s Volkov. Volkov holds a height and reach advantage while Romanov has a grappling advantage. Realistically, I see this being a close fight but I think Romanov will be able to bring him down and take control of the fight from there.)
Nikita Krylov (This fight was supposed to take place last month but Krylov fell ill and the fight was cancelled in the middle of the card. Realistically, this is a close fight but I think Krylov is just a little better than Spann overall but they do generally have similar skillsets. This will be an interesting one to watch.)
Mario Bautista (He’s coming in a -1000 which is nuts. I definitely think Bautista will win but all the value is on Canetti and I wouldn’t fully count Canetti out either, he has surprised us before)
Davey Grant
Victor Henry FADE (Henry is too inconsistent, I think he can snag a decision win but it’s not worth the risk of him losing or a very low output fight)
Said Nurmagomedov (He has a clear advantage on the feet and although, I don’t want to disregard Martinez’s recent success and striking ability, Nurmagomedov’s grappling is just too good to ignore. I’m not sure if he’ll go for a lot of submissions or just ride out a decision purely from control time. Might not be worth the risk for DFS)
JJ Aldrich FADE (Aldrich is the favourite for a reason, Lipski is going down in weight to fight Aldrich and even though Lipski is from the heavier division, she doesn’t have a significant height or reach advantage. Both of these fighters have had rocky fights recently and this one could go either way but if I would have to choose, I would go Aldrich)
Bruno Silva
Carlston Harris (Gooden came in six pounds over and I still don’t think that will help him beat Harris, it could also mean that Gooden had a bad cut which would make things worse for him. Either way, I’m all in with Harris)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area, As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Sedriques Dumas to Finish -125
Vitor Petrino to Finish +150
Carlston Harris to Finish -150
