Allan Fabrykant 
UFC 290
VOLKANOVSKI V RODRIGUEZ
We are back in action with UFC 290, today, coming direct from Las Vegas for International Fight Week! Many top fighters and celebrities will be in town to catch all the action, and boy, do we have a super exciting fight card lined up. Today’s card will kick off at 6:00 PM ET. Be sure to tune in to catch all of today’s fights. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13 fights ending with two long-awaited title fights in the Flyweight and Featherweight divisions. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 290 Volkanovski vs Rodriguez.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Dan Hooker vs Jalin Turner
There aren’t a lot of stellar underdogs on this card, so to build lines for DFS, risks will have to be taken on fighters who have winning chances but aren’t necessarily in the best position to win the fight. This includes fighters like Alonzo Menifield, Robbie Lawler, Dricus Du Plessis and, for the purposes of the Value Target on this card, Dan ‘The Hangman” Hooker. Dan was previously ranked 7th in the lightweight division, but after four losses in six fights, his stock dropped, and now he is struggling to stay in the top 15. Hooker is a maniac in the octagon and holds a very high Strikes Landed per Minute rate or SLpM at 4.83 but also carries a very high Strikes Absorbed per Minute rate or SApM of 4.61. As we can see, he is definitely comfortable standing in the pocket and eating shots if it means he can do some damage of his own, and although this strategy has worked for him in the past, it is not the most effective way to win, and it won’t work forever. He’s coming up tonight against Jalin Turner, who is just coming off a close split-decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot earlier this year. Gamrot agreed to fight that night on short notice as Turner was set to fight Hooker, who had to pull out with a broken hand. Now, it’s Turner’s turn to add complications to this fight as he came in two pounds overweight, and this will do two things. It’ll fire up Hooker, and it may signify that Turner had a bad cut or possibly even some problems with his fight camp in the run-up to this bout. This uncertainty makes me like Hooker as a big underdog.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Dan Hooker UNANIMOUS DECISION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Bo Nickal vs. Val Woodburn
Honestly, this is one of the biggest mismatches in UFC history. Nickal is going to demolish Val Woodburn in a matter of minutes. He is the largest favorite on this card for a very good reason. Nickal burst into the UFC scene with a stellar performance in the Contender Series followed by a 3-minute beat down of Jaime Pickett, which saw Nickal win his first Performance of the Night bonus. Woodburn was set to compete in the Contender Series in about two months, but this a gnarly step up in competition, and this fight will not last long.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Bo Nickal FIRST ROUND KO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Vitor Petrino vs. Martin Prachnio
Petrino is an undefeated Brazilian prospect who is making his second UFC appearance following a decisive decision win in his last fight against Anton Turkalj earlier this year. Prachnio’s story in the UFC is one of just doing enough not to get cut. He started his UFC career with three straight losses, including a first-round KO loss to Sam Alvey. Since his terrible start, he has racked up three wins and one loss. This fight will be a big test for Petrino, as a win here will start his climb to the top of the UFC Light Heavyweight division. Knowing that, Petrino will have a massive chip on his shoulder with a big point to prove in front of the packed T-Mobile Arena.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Vitor Petrino SECOND-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Alexander Volkanovski 5 ROUNDER
Brandon Moreno 5 ROUNDER (Keep in mind that this is the third time they fought, and Pantoja won the first two bouts, but Moreno has made many significant strides in his progress since their last meeting)
Robert Whittaker (Dricus Du Plessis definitely has some winning chances, he is worth a look for DFS purposes, and I wouldn’t trust Whittaker on parlays)
Robbie Lawler (BIG UNDERDOG CALL)
Tatsuro Taira
Yazmin Jauregui
Alonzo Menifield
Cameron Saaiman
Jesus Aguilar
Esteban Ribovics
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Alexander Volkanovski -350
Bo Nickal to Finish Round 1 -300
Tatsuro Taira to Finish (SUB) -300
Yazmin Jauregui -400
