Allan Fabrykant UFC 288
STERLING V CEJUDO
We’re back with the biggest card of the month, coming by way of Newark, NJ, tonight UFC 288 is set to launch! Today’s action will kick off at 6:00 PM ET. There are great fights up and down this card and I can’t wait to break it all down for you!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a long-awaited grudge match for the UFC Bantamweight Championship. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 288 Sterling vs Cejudo.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Braxton Smith vs Parker Porter
I honestly don’t understand how Braxton Smith is an underdog in this matchup. Sure, he started his career in 2014 with a loss to Chase Sherman back in 2014 but fast forward to 2022 and he started his career again but now he is coming into his UFC debut with five straight wins, all coming by first-round KO. Although Porter will be the toughest opponent Smith has faced to date, by UFC standards this is a gift of a debut matchup. Despite three straight wins early on in his UFC career (none were impressive, all three had a judge scoring the fight 29-28), Porter has since been on the receiving end of two first-round finishes and now sees himself on the chopping block if he can’t get a result out of this fight. Smith is a power puncher with great movement and can be known to let a kick or two fly if the opportunity presents itself. Realistically, the odds show Smith as the underdog since in five real fights, we don’t know too much about him, especially how he would handle adversity. However, Porter’s fight style is well known at this point and I have not been impressed with what I’ve seen out of him, at plus money, I’m going for the newcomer Braxton Smith.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Braxton Smith FIRST-ROUND KO.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Movsar Evloev vs. Diego Lopes
For those who follow MMA news closely, you will have seen that Evloev was initially slated to fight Bryce Mitchell but Mitchell unfortunately had to pull out with a Back Injury. A big setback for the UFC as they previously tried to make this matchup late in 2022, but it also had to be canceled as Evloev pulled out with an undisclosed injury. In this case, the UFC was able to find a short-notice replacement for Evloev in Diego Lopes who was preparing for a fight in Fury FC two weeks ago which also got canceled. So, we don’t know too much about Lopes except that he has fought in the combat Jiu Jitsu Worlds twice, he cornered Alexa Grasso in her title win, and he lost a 29-28 fight in the contender series as he was held down for over seven minutes by Joanderson Brito. If Brito can hold Lopes down for seven minutes, Evloev will be able to hold him down for an hour, Evloev is a Master of Sport in Greco-Roman Wrestling back in Russia and has a perfect 6-0-0 record in the UFC and has an average of around five minutes of control time in all of his UFC fights. What will be interesting to see in this fight is how Evloev wins. To date, he does not have a finish in the octagon but tonight will be his best chance to secure a finish tonight against a short-notice fighter making his UFC debut. Realistically, the odds are as they are because of how unpredictable the fight is. Evloev is the heaviest favorite on the card but the specific finish odds are split between finish and decision because both seem very possible. Overall, Evloev to win is one of the safest picks of the card, the difficulty is picking how he will win. (Not great value for GPP, I would only consider him for Cash Games)
MY UFC DFS PICK: Movsar Evloev SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Khaos Williams vs. Rolando Bedoya
Khaos is back!! After nearly a year away from the Octagon, Williams returns to fight against Rolando Bedoya who is making his UFC debut following an 11-fight winning streak. Bedoya has had some questionable matchups throughout his run of wins but has also fought some legitimate competition. However, nothing compares to the level of competition he will be facing tonight. Williams is in the top 25 of the UFC welterweight division and he should be able to finish this fight cleanly as the odds suggest. Bedoya may cause some problems for Williams early but as the fight goes on I think Williams’ experience will start to come through and by the second round, Williams will have complete control of the fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Khaos Williams SECOND-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Aljamain Sterling 5 ROUNDER (This is a very close matchup. Although I have not been thoroughly impressed with Aljo throughout his career, he has been working very hard lately. He’s clearly putting in the work and his opponent hasn’t fought in the octagon in just under three years. It’ll be a lot of ring rust to shake off and I think Sterling can take advantage. I am not knocking Cejudo though, he can definitely pull a result out of this fight, but I am leaning more toward Aljamain in this one, especially as a slight underdog)
Gilbert Burns (It is time, Belal will get absolutely exposed tonight. He was able to handle Sean Brady but Burns is a different beast. Belal’s boring fight style will not work tonight, and the difference between these two when it comes to their ground games will be apparent right off the bat. Frankly, I think Burns has better hands than Belal, he can very much finish this fight on the feet. Either way, Burns is the better fighter and I am shocked that the odds are as close as they are tonight.)
Ikram Aliskerov
Claudio Ribero FADE
Kennedy Nzechukwu FADE
Charles Jourdain (Kron Gracie will have a clear grappling advantage in this one but I think that Jourdain will own the standup and Gracie has not fought since a 2019 loss to Cub Swanson, nearly four years of ring rust will have an effect on the fight)
Marina Rodriguez (This one is very close as the odds suggest, if there was more value on Jandiroba, I would suggest taking her to win because of the value but in this circumstance, even the odds are close. I’ll stick with the elite striking of Marina Rodriguez)
Drew Dober (Add this to your parlay, he’s gonna bully Frevola)
Jessica Andrade
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays (including the four legger below). Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Drew Dober to Finish -140
Ikram Aliskerov to Finish +100
Braxton Smith +140
Gilbert Burns -138
