Allan Fabrykant UFC 287
PEREIRA V ADESANYA 2
We’re off to Miami for today’s UFC card! Today’s much-anticipated action will kick off at 6:00 PM ET. Rematches, rising prospects and long-awaited returns. This card has it all!! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13 fights that will end with a rematch for the UFC Middleweight title. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 287 Pereira vs Adesanya 2.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs Kevin Holland
Something is throwing me off about Holland, and it’s making it hard to pick him in fights, even in fights where he’s the favourite. Holland has gotten into another backstage dust-up, this time with Jorge Masvidal, ahead of his main card matchup with Santiago Ponzinibbio. Thankfully, this time it didn’t lead to any fights getting rebooked. He will still be facing off against a game Ponzinibbio, who is coming off of a third-round knockout over a surging Alex Morono. Despite some bad luck, Ponzinibbio is a serious threat and one that Holland needs to take very seriously if he wants to win this fight. Unfortunately for Holland, I think he will get distracted and will find himself in serious trouble. His fight IQ has been a concern for me in the past, and if he wants to continue to have a career in the highest levels of the UFC, he will need to keep his focus on the fights.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Santiago Ponzinibbio UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible THIRD-ROUND KO).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Trey Ogden
La Jaula Bahamondes is returning to the octagon for his first fight in over a year. In his last two fights, Bahamondes has been responsible for two of the craziest high-light reel finishes I have seen with a perfectly executed Brabo Choke (like an inverted guillotine choke) and a gross wheel kick KO. Ogden is not at a level where he can compete with Bahamondes on the feet. Ogden absorbs more strikes per minute than he lands, and his strike output (3.73 SLpM) is not even half that of Bahamondes’ strike output (8.33 Strikes Landed per Minute/SLpM). On top of that, if Ogden is thinking of transitioning to the ground, he will have trouble doing so, with Bahamondes sporting an incredible 95% takedown defence rate. Realistically, there wasn’t a lot that impressed me in Ogden’s win over Daniel Zellhuber and with a guy as talented as Bahamondes, I can only see Bahamondes dominating in this matchup.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Ignacio Bahamondes SECOND-ROUND KO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Sam Hughes
I am truly impressed that Sam Hughes is still on the UFC roster after a razor-sharp win against Istela Nunes and a win against Elise Reed. It seemed as though Hughes may have solidified herself a roster spot in the women’s strawweight division. However, after a decisive loss to Piera Rodriguez and now tonight’s matchup against a highly touted, undefeated prospect in Jaqueline Amorim, I don’t think Hughes’ future in the UFC looks all that bright anymore. Amorim, a former LFA champ, BJJ Black Belt and IBJJF champ, will be making her UFC debut following four dominant performances in LFA, where she secured first-round finishes in all of those fights. I am expecting Amorim to continue that trend today with a first-round submission over Sam Hughes.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jaqueline Amorim FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION. (BIG VALUE ON FANDUEL)
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Alex Pereira 5 ROUNDER (Between UFC and Kickboxing Pereira is 3-0-0, and despite a strong start in their first fight, Adesanya ultimately lost to Pereira via a fifth-round KO. I can see a similar story playing out tonight where Adesanya may control the fight early on and will fade as the fight goes on. Both these fighters are really even in skillset, but as we have seen, Pereira has gotten the better of Adesanya time and time again.)
Gilbert Burns (This fight shouldn’t even be competitive. Masvidal hasn’t won since 2019, when he beat Nate Diaz for the “BMF title.” Since then, almost four years have passed, Masvidal has lost two title fights, and I don’t see a world where he beats Burns outside of a fluke KO. Burns is simply the better fighter, especially when it comes to grappling.)
Adrian Yanez
Raul Rosas Jr.
Chris Curtis
Joel Pfyer
Lupita Godinez
Luana Pinheiro
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke
Karl Williams
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Ignacio Bahamondes to Finish +115
Jaqueline Amorim -250
Gilbert Burns -450
