Allan Fabrykant 
UFC 283
TEIXEIRA V HILL
We are in Brazil today for the first numbered card of 2023!! Weigh-ins went well, and we finally have some good news on the gambling front, so a few jurisdictions that had bans on UFC bets have now lifted them! We have a lot of Brazilian talents showcasing on this card and many heavy favourites but we also have some interesting plays that are worth digging into. Today’s action will kick off at 5:30 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be a whopping 15 fights that will end with two vacant title fights, with Volk fighting a weight class up, creating an interim title fight, and a shoulder injury to Jiri Prochazka, creating the vacant Light Heavyweight strap. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 5:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 283 Teixeira v Hill.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Luan Lacerda vs Cody Stamann
Ok, so I get that Lacerda is a +300 underdog but I actually think he has a solid shot here. Don’t get me wrong, Stamann has a massive experience advantage and is a far superior wrestler but Lacerda has very admirable BJJ skills and if the fight ends up going to the ground I don’t think its all smooth sailing for Stamann. On top of that Stamann has struggled quite a bit as of late. He’s lost 3 of his last 4 UFC fights with his only win coming against a 38 year old Eddie Wineland who retired after the loss. Lacerda is on the opposite side of the spectrum, making his debut on a 10 fight winning streak after putting on dominating performances in the regional scene in Brazil and in LFA, even beating the likes of UFC Bantamweight Raulian Paiva. People have been quick to count Lacerda out of his debut but I don’t think that’s particular called for. If Lacerda can avoid any heavy shots early and impose his BJJ game early in the fight, I think he can really shock some people.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Luan Lacerda SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Gilbert Burns vs. Neil Magny
Wow, the UFC really created quite the showcase for Durinho. After taking the fight that nobody wanted to take against Khamzat Chimaev, Burns put on one hell of a performance, he took the supposedly invincible wonderkid to all five rounds. He took Chimaev to the deep end and let him know how tough the fighters can get at the top. Burns has been a company man for a while, taking the fights that nobody wanted, doing his time and working his way up the ranks. This fight is his payoff. In front of tens of thousands of roaring hometown fans Burns will have one of the easiest cakewalks in his career against an opponent in Magny who is somehow still in the top 15 of the welterweight division (Ranked 11th). I think this win would either set up a title fight with the winner of Edwards v Usman or it would set up a title eliminator with Covington. Either way, a win tonight should give Burns a direct path to his next title shot. Where to even begin with Magny, his recent career in the UFC has been shaky at best and he has put together some questionable performances even in some where he got his hand raised. Burns will have a significant advantage in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and even in the striking department I think Durinho Burns will have a clear edge. The only area where Magny has a clear advantage is in reach with over an over 9 inch difference but realistically, I think this fight only ends one way, with a Burns submission.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Gilbert Burns FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Ihor Poteria vs. Shogun Rua
We could possibly see the final send off for one of the legends of the game today in Shogun Rua and unfortunately, I don’t think it will end quite as he might hope. Rua has had a stellar MMA career even spanning back to the PRIDE days in 2004 where he was beating Quinton Jackson with Soccer Kicks and defeating the likes of Big Nog, the Reem, Machida, Coleman and Liddell. Rua’s resume is unmatched and now making his 25 walk to the UFC octagon tonight, the former UFC Light heavyweight champion has had one hell of a career. However, at 41 years of age and having lost his last two fights (barely losing the last one to OSP), it might finally be time to pass the torch. On the other side of the cage we have Ihor Poteria, who had a strong performance in the Contender Series with a first round finish via brutal ground and pound but his UFC debut fell up short against an onslaught from Nicolae Negumereanu. Tonight, however, as much as I want one more vintage performance out of Rua in front of the hometown crowd, I don’t think it’s in the cards.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Ihor Poteria FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Glover Teixeira 5 ROUNDER
Brandon Moreno
Jessica Andrade
Paul Craig
Gregory Rodriguez
Thiago Moises
Gabriel Bonfim
Jailton Almeida
Terrance McKinney
Nicholas Dalby FADE
Josiane Nunes
Daniel Marcos
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area, as such I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP, you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Burns -500
Moises -380
Andrade -500
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
