Allan Fabrykant UFC 282
BLACHOWICZ V ANKALAEV
We’re back in Vegas and with only a couple of cards left before the UFC goes on a holiday break, tonight is UFC 282, the final numbered card of the year! There was a lot of hype around these fights, with some getting put together last minute and others including new talent like Paddy Pimblett and the youngest fighter ever on the UFC roster, 18-year-old Raul Rosas Jr. Today’s action will kick off at 6:30 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12 fights that will end with a bout for the vacant light heavyweight championship after Jiri Prochazka’s shoulder industry. Now, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both very active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 282 Blachowicz vs Ankalaev.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Ilia Topuria vs Bryce Mitchell
I’m honestly surprised that this fight is as close as it is. Yes, both fighters are undefeated, and someone is losing their zero tonight, but this fight reminds me so much of Ilia Topuria vs Ryan Hall. Where we have a very talented grappler fighting against one of the best all-around fighters in the UFC. Sure, he was in the fight for a good chunk of time, he made Topuria work to get out of positions, but it was only a matter of time until he got caught. Let’s not forget, yes, Bryce is a BJJ Black belt, and so is Topuria. This matchup pits Mitchelle up against someone who is unlike any opponent he has ever faced before, whereas Topuria has had experience with guys who have a very similar style to Mitchell. Ultimately, I think this fight will start off close, and as the fight goes on, Topuria will take over the fight with his superior strike game.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Ilia Topuria SECOND-ROUND KO
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Raul Rosas Jr vs. Jay Perrin
Sure, the kid is 18, but he’s an absolute beast. He is a perfect 6-0-0, and he is being eased into the UFC with a matchup against a fighter in Jay Perrin, who is 0-2 in his UFC career and will most likely get cut after a loss to Rosas tonight. Rosas showed off some excellent tactical abilities in his Dana White Contender Series fight, where he even attempted a Suolev stretch against his opponent. That submission attempt came alongside three successful takedowns, 96 sig strikes and nearly 12 minutes of control time. This should be a great concern for Jay Perrin as he currently holds a 64% Takedown Defense rate and holds a negative strike differential (3.84 SLpM vs 4.07 SApM). I think by the end of this fight, a new star will be born, can’t wait to see the progression throughout his UFC career.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Raul Rosas Jr. SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible THIRD-ROUND SUBMISSION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz
Yep, we are including the main for tonight’s article. In some circumstances, I could even see Ankalaev beating Prochazka pre-shoulder injury but now, against Blachowicz, I think it should be considered a lock, Ankalaev is scary good. Three of his last four wins have come against current top 10s in the light heavyweight division, and he has looked even more dangerous throughout every one of those fights. Statistically, Ankalaev is a bit better than Blachowicz in that he lands more strikes and absorbs less while also holding a better striking accuracy and strike defence percentage. I think Ankalaev’s combos will ultimately prove to be too much for Blachowicz to handle, but the interesting thing about Ankalaev’s game is that he can also add kicks if he needs to, and he’s a master of sport in Combat Sambo, so if Blachowicz tries to bring the fight to the ground to avoid the onslaught, he’ll be met with a Dagestani handcuff and ground and pound. I don’t see an area of this fight where Blachowicz has a decided advantage. (other than having a longer reach and I don’t think that will be enough to win the fight)
MY UFC DFS PICK: Magomed Ankalaev THIRD-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Paddy Pimblett
Santiago Ponzinibbio (His opponent is coming in on short notice)
Dricus Du Plessis (This fight is very close, but I think that Till has not been able to come back to the fighter he used to be, and he is coming into this fight losing four of his last five, with over a year layoff and against a fighter with crazy power. As much as I like Till as a fighter, I think this is a bad matchup for him. I won’t fully count him out, but I’m on Du Plessis)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Edmen Shabazyan
Chris Curtis (Even though the hype train is now gone, Buckley was stringing together some good performances until he dropped the first two rounds to Imavov in his last fight and couldn’t come back. In tonight’s fight, even though Curtis is coming in as an underdog, he has surprised us before with wins over the likes of Phil Hawes, Brendan Allen and Rodolfo Vieira. I think that Curtis’ striking game is very underrated, and exposing someone like Buckley could see Curtis matched up against a top 10 opponent in his next fight)
Billy Quarantillo
Erik Silva
Cameron Saaiman (This one is harder to predict as both fighters are making their UFC debut with the same record 6-0-0. I will be leaning towards Saaiman in this one because he is more well-rounded and has had a better strength of schedule. If Koslow get’s the fight to the ground though, it could pose some problems for Saaiman as Koslow is an excellent grappler and submission artist)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will not be building any UFC Parlays, due to recent events involving suspicious betting patterns in a recent UFC fight. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Ankalaev -240
Pimblett -245
Ponzinibbio -180
Rosas Jr. -245
Topuria -145
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
(Alternatively you could add Dricus Du Plessis)
