Allan Fabrykant UFC 277
PENA V NUNES 2
Welcome back everyone to Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! After a couple of early cards with the last one coming from across the pond we are back with another numbered cared! The UFC has stacked this one up with two rematches for the main and co-main events. There are lot’s of hidden gems that we can lean towards for betting purposes. Today’s slate will start at 6:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13-fights that will end with a rematch for the women’s bantamweight title that will feature one of the greatest female fighters of all time in Amanda Nunes. Let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the possibility of low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 277 Pena vs Nunes 2.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Rafael Alves (+150) (DK 7200) (FD $10) vs. Drew Dober (-175) (DK 9000) (FD $20).
We’re starting off the article with an interesting matchup. Dober has been in the UFC since 2013 and has had a bit of a rocky road as of late despite some success in his long career. Dober has always been known as a hard hitter and his standup is definitely his path to victory in this matchup but a common theme in his losses is that he gets caught in deep submission (half of his UFC losses have come by submission). Alves is known for his wicked guillotine choke, if Dober gets complacent or ignores the threat, Alves is going to lock it up tight and end the fight. If the fight goes to the cards, I’d imagine that Dober would have an edge in a 15-minute fight but I cannot undersell Alves’ submission threat and the fact that submission defense has not always been Dober’s strong suit. The odds do give us some value on Alves but I think the outcome of the fight is still very much up in the air.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Rafael Alves (+150) (DK 7200) (FD $10). SECOND ROUND SUBMISSION
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Michael Morales (-600) (DK 9500) (FD $22) vs. Adam Fugitt (+450) (DK 6700) (FD $8).
I’ll give Fugitt credit, a win against Renfro is impressive in my books but he was given an extremley tough fight for his UFC debut. Morales is the latest talent coming out of Entram Gym and currently holds a 13-0-0 record, his last one of which came in an impressive performance against Trevin Giles. A win over Giles is a much more significant feather in ones cap than a win against Renfro. On top of that, Morales’ record is filled with First round finishes, mostly by strikes. Other than Renfro, Fugitt has fought a long list of nobodies and he’s facing a massive step up here in competition, one that I don’t think he’ll be able to handle. Morales has a lot of power and speed behind his shots and it has caught his opponents by suprise. I think there is a significant chance that Morales puts Fugitt away in one round.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Michael Morales (-600) (DK 9500) (FD $22) FIRST ROUND KO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Alejandro Pantoja (-188) (DK 8700) (FD $19) vs. Alex Perez (+162) (DK 7500) (FD $11)
We have a very high level flyweight fight in this matchup and it is not even the highest level flyweight fight of the night, that’s impressive for one card. Despite being the better fighter, Pantoja is not the one with the title fight under their belt, that would be Alex Perez, who in just 7 fights flew up the rankings to compete for the Flyweight strap, unfortunately he went on to be completely exposed on the ground by Figueredo, Pantoja also lost to Figgy but at least that fight was more competitive. Against Pantoja, Figgy largly kept the action off the ground, knowing Pantoja’s BJJ threat, whereas, against Perez, he locked in a Guillotine two minutes in. Perez will be struggling a lot tonight if his BJJ defense has not SIGNIFICANTLY improved as Pantoja representes a constant submission threat that I don’t think Perez will be able to beat back. Pantoja’s BJJ is just so technically sound that I don’t think Perez gets out of the first round. Lets not forget that Pantoja holds two wins against Brandon Moreno (one in TUF) and one against Kai-Kara France (also in TUF) [the two guys fighting for the interim strap tonight], whereas Perez’s win record comes nowhere near Pantoja’s, in comparing records alone, this fight is a complete mismatch, even more so when you begin to factor in Pantoja’s significant advantage on the ground. I am heavily leaning towards Pantoja ending this fight in one round, via submission.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Alejandro Pantoja (-188) (DK 8700) (FD $19) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Amanda Nunes -275 (DK 9200) (FD $23) (5 ROUNDER)
Brandon Moreno -210 (DK 8900) (FD $20) (5 ROUNDER)
Sergei Pavlovich -160 (DK 8200) (FD $17) (Never count out Derrick Lewis, I would consider him viable in DFS formats)
Magomed Ankalaev -600 (DK 9400) (FD $21)
Matt Semelsberger -163 (DK 8600) (FD $19) (Some value on Morono as an underdog for DFS purposes, I could see Morono taking this fight, it is very close in my books)
Hamdy Abdelwahab (GPP) +162 (DK 7700) (FD $11)
Drakkar Klose -210 (DK 9100) (FD $21)
Ji Yeon Kim (FADE) +100 (DK 7900) (FD $15) (Opponent came in overweight)
Nick Negumereanu -125 (DK 7800) (FD $15) (Potieria has some good value as a dog, if you need a value piece with some risk)
Orion Cosce -200 (DK 8800) (FD $18) (I think Cosce is more likely to win, however the value is on Blood Diamond, I think Cosce’s loss to Rowe was a big blemish on his record and he’ll need to rack up some solid performances to earn back trust. Also, Orion came in overweight too)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
