Allan Fabrykant UFC 276
ADESANYA V CANNONIER
Welcome back everyone to Win Daily’s Fight Night Deep Dive! We have one of the best cards of the year in front of us tonight with two belts getting put on the line tonight. Today’s slate will start at 6:00 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12-fights that will end with a lightweight fight between two future top contenders. Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 276 Adesanya vs Cannonier. If you haven’t already, be sure to check out this week’s WinDaily MMA Gambling Academy!
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Bryan Barberena (-110) (DK 7700) (FD $14) vs. Robbie Lawler (-110) (DK 8500) (FD $16).
If this fight happened five years ago, there is no question in my mind that Robbie would take it, but this is 2022, marking 20 years since Lawlers first UFC fight, there’s no question that he’s a specimen of an athlete but father time catches up to everyone and realistically Barberena will only have to catch him clean a couple of time to truly take control of the fight. Essenitally, Lawlers chin is his biggest liability after it has endured so much damage over the years. Robbie was on a four fight losing streak before his win against another aging vet in Nick Diaz, and unfortunately I don’t have confidence in Robbie after one win in his last five years. Barberena is also walking into tonight on a two fight winning streak, including a close win over Matt Brown which makes me believe that he should have no problem bringing the fight to Lawler tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Bryan Barberena (-110) (DK 7700) (FD $14). UNANIMOUS DECISION. (possible SECOND ROUND KO)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Jim Miller (-175) (DK 8700) (FD $20) vs. Donald Cerrone (+150) (DK 7500) (FD $10).
Now onto another fighter who should’ve retired a while ago, Donald Cerrone. His last performance against Morono was embarrassing to say the least and led to five losses and a draw over his last six fights. I will always respect what Cerrone was able to accomplish in the octagon in his prime but the reality is that his chin is shot, he’s slower and right now in his career he is nowhere near Jim Miller. Despite the fact that Jim is only one year younger, Jim is still winning fights and in impressive fashion too. In his last two fights, Jim put away two fighters who were considered prospects and he did it in a very convincing fashion with his looping shots. Jim can also compete with Cerrone on the ground as he has a number of submission victories to his name in the UFC. Both fighters have similar strike differentials with Cerrone landing and absorbing double what Jim has done throughout his UFC career. However, recently Cerrone has been absorbing more damage than landing. It’s safe to say that I’m leaning towards A-10 Miller in this one and I think Cerrone should look at his career thoughtfully after tonights fight no matter what happens.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jim Miller (-175) (DK 8700) (FD $20) FIRST ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Dricus Du Plessis (-160) (DK 8000) (FD $18) vs. Brad Tavares (+130) (DK 8200) (FD $11)
Dricus has impressed me ever since he stepped foot into the octagon back in 2020. Since then he’s rattled off another KO win against Trevin Giles and is now up against a very similar opponent in Brad Tavares. Brad has had a long history in the UFC, fighting since 2010 and competing against some of the best in the sport such as Israel Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. Unfortunately for Tavares, he could never make that leap from being a good UFC fighter to being a great UFC fighter. Despite that, he has consistently remained in the top 15 and will prove to be Du Plessis’ toughest challenge to date. I think that Tavares will struggle a lot with Du Plessis rangey kicks and fast strikes. Du Plessis made a name for himself through his K1-Kickboxing but has also rattled off 9 submission wins over his 16 career wins. Du Plessis is a very versatile fighter and will be able to take whatever Tavares throws his way in stride. I think that Du Plessis will prove to be a future contender in this division and that starts with a finish tonight against Tavares.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Dricus Du Plessis (-160) (DK 8000) (FD $18) FIRST-ROUND KO. (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION)
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Israel Adesanya -500 (DK 9400) (FD $23) (5 ROUNDER) (I don’t see a lot of competitiveness in this one, it’s almost as though Adesanya is trying to lap the division and Cannonier just happened to be next in line)
Max Holloway +170 (DK 7200) (FD $15) (5 ROUNDER) (Lots of Value taking Holloway by decision, I’ve seen it anywhere from +300 to +375, I also happen to think that Holloway won the first two)
Sean Strickland -110 (DK 7900) (FD $16) (Very close fight, I would have exposure to it on one side or the other. I think that Pereira has the better DFS value since it’s easier to see him go for the finish but Strickland could very well take Pereira down at will to neutralize the kickboxing and slow down the fight. This is most likely a title eliminator as well.)
Jalin Turner -150 (DK 8400) (FD $17)
Sean O’Malley -334 (DK 9300) (FD $22) (Struggled a lot here as O’Malley does have some holes in his striking and some deficiencies when defending shots, especially kicks, but I don’t think Munhoz will be able to expose O’Malley like Vera did. I think O’Malley fires shots from distance, racks up a lot of DFS points and takes a Decision win)
Andre Muniz -350 (DK 9200) (FD $21)
Maycee Barber (FADE) -300 (DK 9100) (FD $21) (Maycee Barber has soured me a lot, I don’t find her striking or any of her fundamentals to be all that impressive but it’s hard to back a fighter like Jessica Eye against her as Eye has lost 4 of her last 5 fights. I’d fade this fight altogether, since there are too many unknowns and not enough value on either side)
Ian Garry -175 (DK 8800) (FD $19) (I have some concerns with Garry and Gabe Green can provide some solid DFS value)
Jessica Rose-Clark -150 (DK 8600) (FD $17)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
