Allan Fabrykant UFC 274
OLIVEIRA V GAETHJE
We’re back with a banger UFC PPV card this weekend. We made some great plays last week and this week should be no different! We have a massive card coming up tonight with a lot of established vets, up and comers and of course the Wittman prodigies in the main and co-main event. Today’s slate will start at 5:30 PM ET. Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 15-fights that will end with two title fights, including the vacant lightweight championship in the main event! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 5:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is acceptable. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 274 Oliveira vs Gaethje
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Joe Lauzon (+150) (DK 7400) (FD $11) vs. Donald Cerrone (-175) (DK 8800) (FD $18).
We finally have the long-awaited return of Joe Lauzon after 3 years away from the octagon. The UFC decided to place him in a winnable matchup for his first fight back. Lauzon looked great in his last fight many moons ago but the important question of ring rust remains. Luckily for Lauzon, Cerrone has not won a UFC fight since before Lauzon’s last win all the way back in 2019. Cerrone is a legend but he has lost 5 and drew one of his last six fights, a loss here against Joe Lauzon might spell the end of his UFC career. Unfortunately for Cowboy, I have not seen anything from him over the last three years to be remotely confident in him against a guy like Lauzon, even with the Ring Rust.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Joe Lauzon (+150) (DK 7400) (FD $11). UNANIMOUS DECISION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Brandon Royval (-250) (DK 9300) (FD $20) vs. Matt Schnell (+200) (DK 6900) (FD $9).
Here we have two top level strikers in the flyweight division, unfortunately for Schnell, he is not quite at the same level as Royval. Schnell has more volume on average but Royval is the much more tactical striker and he also absorbs a lot less strikes than Schnell does which is a huge cause for concern against someone who hits as hard as Royval does. Realistically, I think the most drastic difference in skill level between these two is their ground game, Royval is simply much more of a threat on the ground and Schnell will struggle if Royval gets control in the grappling department but even on the feet, I would give Royval the edge and since he’s competitive everywhere when Schnell is not, I like Royval as a safe play tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Brandon Royval (-250) (DK 9300) (FD $20) FIRST-ROUND KO (possible FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Fernie Garcia (-150) (DK 8600) (FD $17) vs. Journey Newson (+125) (DK 7600) (FD $13).
I loved watching Garcia fight on the Contender Series, what an amazing performance. He absolutely dominated the whole fight from start to finish and never even gave his opponent the chance to get going. Prior to his Contender Series fight, he did have a lot of decision wins, including a couple of split decision wins but this kid has some next-level power and for his debut, he’s been matched up against Journey Newson who has had a bit of a rocky journey in the UFC going 0-2-1 after his only UFC win was turned into a no-contest following a positive test for marijuana. Newson also hasn’t fought in almost two years after being on the receiving end of a brutal Randy Brown head kick KO. I have full confidence in what I’ve seen from Garcia that he can put away Newson about as quickly as Brown did. He’ll definitely be a good prospect for the future if he can pass tonight’s test.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Fernie Garcia (-150) (DK 8600) (FD $17) FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Justin Gaethje +110 (DK 7700) (FD $16) (5 ROUNDER) (The weight miss despite the fact that it was half a pound changes the outlook of this fight completely. Not being able to win your own belt is completely demoralizing and I doubt we see the same Charles Oliviera that we would usually see, which is why I’m leaning towards Gaethje.)
Rose Namajunas -210 (DK 8900) (FD $23)
Michael Chandler -400 (DK 9600) (FD $22)
Ovince St. Preux (FADE) -250 (DK 9200) (FD $20)
Andre Fialho -450 (DK 9500) (FD $22)
Randy Brown GPP +100 (DK 7900) (FD $14) (Khaos is an excellent pick as well but I like the value on Rudeboy)
Norma Dumon -225 (DK 9100) (FD $19) (Macy Chaisson also works as a deep GPP play)
Tracy Cortez -150 (DK 8700) (FD $17)
Blagoy Ivanov (FADE) -150 (DK 8400) (FD $18)
Danny Roberts -110 (DK 8000) (FD $14)
Kleydson Rodrigues -334 (DK 9400) (FD $21)
Lupita Godinez -175 (DK 9000) (FD $19)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 UFC Parlays. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
