Allan Fabrykant UFC 272
COVINGTON V MASVIDAL
We finally have another numbered carding tonight, and this one is an absolute banger welterweight fight! Today’s slate will start at 6:00 PM ET. Today’s slate has a lot of bad blood in the main event, I haven’t been this hyped for a non-title fight in a really long time! We have two former title challengers, a former Interim Champion and the Current BMF Champion squaring off in the same octagon! Read more below to find out my take! Tonight there will be 13-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is recommended. DFS production in these fights will usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 272 Covington v Masvidal.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Edson Barboza (+140) (DK 7900) (FD $13) vs. Bryce Mitchell (-170) (DK 8300) (FD $18).
Now, Mitchell is currently undefeated in the UFC and a lot of people are very high on the kid but after his last couple of fights red flags started flashing in my mind. He was struggling against middle level competition eventually getting the job done, albeit not in the most impressive fashion (grapple heavy not a viable strategy at the highest level). It’s now been nearly a year and half since he last stepped into the octagon and he’s going in there against a certified killer in Edson Barboza. Barboza has a lot of weapons in his arsenal as a highly trained BJJ, Taekwondo and Muay Thai Specialist. His kicks are lethal as we saw in his fights against Shane Burgos and Terry Etim. Although Mitchell is undefeated, he simply has never fought anyone like Barboza and I don’t think this is the best matchup for him. The fact that Barboza is as big of a dog as he is was quite surprising to me, I figured at the very least this would be a pick em’ fight when I first saw it. This fight does truly represent the striker vs grappler mantra with Barboza taking the role of the striker and Mitchell taking the role of the grappler. If Barboza can establish the leg kick early, hamper Mitchell’s movement and even block a takedown attempt or two, he should be able to take control of this fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Edson Barboza (+140) (DK 7900) (FD $13). THIRD-ROUND KO.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Umar Nurmagomedov (-1000) (DK 9600) (FD $22) vs. Brian Kelleher (+600) (DK 6600) (FD $8).
Well… here we have what is far and away the biggest mismatch of the card. Despite the fact that Umar is definitely not his cousin Khabib and has a very unpolished skillset, he doesn’t have to be Khabib against Brian Kelleher. The grappling of Nurmagomedov is simply far superior to Kelleher’s, on top of that, Umar will have one of the world’s best grapplers walking him through the fight step-by-step in real-time. There isn’t much more to say on this one. This fight is another opportunity for Nurmagomedov to build his UFC resume and make the steady climb to the top while properly developing his skillset.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Umar Nurmagomedov (-1000) (DK 9600) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Kevin Holland (-350) (DK 9100) (FD $21) vs. Alex Oliveira (+275) (DK 7100) (FD $9).
BIG MOUTH IS BACK!!! Finally, the return of Kevin Holland. The book was out a bit on him among the top 10 in the middleweight division. The higher-level grapplers like Blonde Brunson and Vettori were able to hold him down and neutralize his striking but that strategy just isn’t available to Oliveira. Oliveira has lost his last three fights and lost six of his last eight. He must feel as though the retirement bells are beginning to ring for him as it is getting harder and harder to see him being competitive in these matchups. For example, here, he’s so outmatched in the striking department when it comes to Holland’s power and speed that I don’t see Oliveira lasting very long in this fight. Holland is also a very distracting fighter which is a detriment to his own fight IQ but can also make his opponents lose their concentration and eventually lose their focus on the fight itself as well saw against Jacare. I was really hoping we could see Holland get a rematch against Kyle Daukaus considering how that fight ended but this fight is the perfect opportunity for Holland to get back into the win column and make another run at the top. He will need to seriously work on his grappling ability and takedown defence if he will make it high up in the UFC. (Don’t forget Kevin Holland went 5 for 5 in the UFC in 2020, legendary year for him and he can pick that form back up)
MY UFC DFS PICK: Kevin Holland (-350) (DK 9100) (FD $21) FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Colby Covington (5 ROUNDER) -334 (DK 9400) (FD $23) (Jorge Masvidal works in deep GPP formats but when we get down to brass tax, Covington is the better MMA fighter, his advantage in the wrestling department is a huge leg up in this one and I really think he can wear Masvidal down. My main frame of reference in this matchup is how both fighters compared against Usman. Colby performed better against a stronger Usman… Masvidal got out-wrestled in the first fight and laid out in the second)
Jamie Mullarkey +137 (DK 8000) (FD $15) (Jalin Turner also works but I am slightly leaning towards Mullarkey in this one)
Sergey Spivak -210 (DK 8700) (FD $19)
Marina Rodriguez -275 (DK 9300) (FD $21) (I was strongly considering listing her as my GPP play, my only concern was that the chance of a decision is very high. She lets her hands fly and throws a lot of volume with a lot of power. She is definitely a play I’m prioritizing for my lineups tonight)
Nick Negumereanu +110 (DK 7800) (FD $16) (After that sorry excuse for a performance out of Kennedy Nzechukwu in his last fight, I’m shocked he wasn’t cut. I have zero faith in him tonight and will need to see something extremely special out of him to have any faith in him moving forward. On top of that Nzechukwu is coming in on short notice for this fight.)
Rafael Dos Anjos -170 (DK 7300) (FD $18) (MUST PLAY ON DraftKings, he was priced as a dog when the slate was released under his initial opponent Rafael Fiziev. Against Moicano, he’s a sizeable favourite and he’s coming into the fight with a full camp against a fighter with a similar style who is coming in on extremely short notice. He works on FanDuel but at his price, there are better options, this is primarily a DK play)
Devonte Smith -160 (DK 8500) (FD $17)
Maryna Moroz GPP +162 (DK 7400) (FD $11)
Dustin Jacoby -188 (DK 8600) (FD $20)
Tagir Ulanbekov (FADE) -250 (DK 9000) (FD $20) (I like Tim Elliott as a DFS GPP play but Ulanbekov’s wrestling and combat sando is very strong and usually overwhelms his opponents. Either way I don’t see this fight being a high striking affair and it’s not the most suitable for DFS)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 3 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
*NEW* PARLAY OF THE DAY
If your bookie makes you choose (Nurmagomedov by SUB and Holland by KO)
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
