Allan Fabrykant UFC Fight Night 205
BLAYDES V DAUKAUS
What a fantasic card last week, we saw so many finishes and our parlay of the day was a huge success! Today we have our first fight night card in the US but outside of Vegas in a very long time and the UFC is bringing the heat to Columbus! Today’s slate will start at 4:00 PM ET. Today’s slate has some wild heavyweight contenders in the main event, who are both looking to kickstart their championship runs with a win tonight! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 13-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is acceptable. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Night 204 Volkov vs Aspinall.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Chris Gutierrez (+110) (DK 7700) (FD $14) vs. Danaa Batgaarel (-138) (DK 8500) (FD $18).
Both of these guys are very talented strikers and although I would give Bataarel the edge in power, I think Gutierrez is bringing forward a more polished and intelligent striking arsenal. Gutierrez has serious kicking power and in my opinion, this is what’ll set the pace of the fight as Gutierrez can use his kicks to manage distance and hinder Batgaarel’s mobility. Batgaarel’s record is also a little suspect and I don’t believe he’s been tested as much as Gutierrez has had way more experience both inside and outside the octagon and has fought stronger opponents. Both of these fighters throw a lot of strikes and don’t get hit quite as often. So, I think on paper, this is a close fight but I also think Gutierrez’s fight IQ will give him an edge in this one.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Chris Gutierrez (+110) (DK 7700) (FD $14). UNANIMOUS DECISION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Aliaskhab Khizriev (-1000) (DK 9300) (FD $22) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+600) (DK 6900) (FD $8).
I don’t even know where to begin at this one, looking at the odds is too simple. If you want a good reason why everyone is so high on Khizriev, just watch his appearance on the Contender Series, I promise, it’s very very short. As are a lot of Khizriev’s fights, out of his 13 pro fights (all wins), he’s finished his opponent within the first minute FIVE times, including a sub-1 minute stoppage of everyone’s least favourite fighter Rousimar Palhares. Khizriev has not been the luckiest with his matchups as he’s had four UFC fights fall through, including matchups against Kyle Daukaus and Alessio Di Chirico, both of which are tough opponents for someone making their UFC debut. Tonight, Khizriev is up against another UFC debutant and as you can see, people don’t foresee this fight being a close one.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Aliaskhab Khizriev (-1000) (DK 9300) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND KO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Viacheslav Borschev (-160) (DK 8700) (FD $18) vs. Marc Diakiese (+130) (DK 7500) (FD $12).
Here we have another Contender Series alumni in Borschev who we’ve actually covered in an article before as he came through for us with a nasty liver kick KO against Dakota Bush earlier this year. On the two-month turnaround, he’s back against a very inconsistent Diakiese who is in one of his less successful runs as of late as he’s dropped his last two fights and hasn’t won a UFC contest since 2019. This is in part due to Diakese’s very questionable fight IQ and grappling (a major part of the reason why he got subbed by Rafael Alves). On the other side of this fight, we have Borschev who is a world-class K1 kickboxer who passed a strong test against Dakota Bush in his last fight. Diakiese has had trouble with kickboxers in the past (ie Dan Hooker, who actually subbed him…) and I don’t see that changing tonight as Borschev can impose himself early in this fight with his kicks and take control from there. I’ll have a lot of Borschev in my lines tonight, especially at his price.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Viacheslav Borschev (-160) (DK 8700) (FD $18) FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Curtis Blaydes (5 ROUNDER) -500 (DK 9200) (FD $23) (Chris Daukaus works as a deep GPP Play)
David Dvorak -138 (DK 8400) (FD $17)
Manon Fiorot -450 (DK 9400) (FD $21)
Karol Rosa (FADE) -210 (DK 8900) (FD $19)
Luis Saldana +100 (DK 8300) (FD $15) (I really like Souza’s Karate and will have some shares of both sides of this fight)
Askar Askarov -400 (DK 9100) (FD $21)
Ilir Latifi (FADE) -200 (DK 8600) (FD $19) (Either Latifi wrestles Olenik to a decision win or Olenik uses his submissions to get a win, either way, I don’t see a ton of DFS value in this one)
Neil Magny -250 (DK 8800) (FD $20) (I really don’t like Magny as a DFS play, the reason why I don’t like this as a FADE play is because I think Griffin offers some DFS value in deep formats so I’m not totally opposed to taking a piece of this fight but I don’t this Griffin is a safe W by any means)
Matt Brown -110 (DK 8200) (FD $15) (Very close fight, Brown is getting old and his chin is very suspect but he still has significant KO power and Barberena has been way too inconsistent throughout his UFC career for my liking)
Alexa Grasso (FADE) -250 (DK 9000) (FD $19)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 4 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
