Allan Fabrykant UFC Fight Night 204
VOLKOV V ASPINALL
FINALLY! We have our first fight night outside of Vegas in who knows how long! Today we have a really special one as the UFC travels across the pond to London, England and are destined to make a big splash, showing off their top British talents for the hometown crowd. Today’s slate will start at 1:30 PM ET. Today’s slate has some really interesting prospects and some future faces of the franchise, including Muhammad Mokaev and Paddy Pimblet! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 12-fights that will take us well into the night! Looking forward to breaking this one down! Let’s get started!
SLATE STARTS AT 1:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event (and co-main) is acceptable. DFS production in these fights are usually be high as they are five-round fights. I may be branching away from the Main Event for some of my lines due to the low activity among these fighters. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. The Main Event WILL NOT be featured as one of my top three plays (Top Value Play, Locked In-Play, or Top Scoring Play) but WILL be featured in my Honorable Mentions category. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Night 204 Volkov vs Aspinall.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Jack Shore (-110) (DK 7600) (FD $15) vs. Timur Valiev (-110) (DK 8600) (FD $15).
Both these fighters are very talented and are very evenly matched. I can’t help but favour Shore in this matchup who has made small adjustments to his UFC game and has overall improved a strong skillset. Shore loves the RNC and has won 7 of his 14 fights by taking the back. On the feet, both fighters are very evenly matched with high outputs. Valiev has a slightly higher output but Shore absorbs less damage, making their striking differential very similar. On the ground though, they are quite different. Shore averages around three more takedowns a fight than Valiev does and Shore has a 100% takedown defence compared to Valiev’s 50%. Both these fighters have solid tanks and can fight hard for the full 15 but I do think that Shore does have a significant enough advantage on the ground to where it can make the difference in this fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Jack Shore (-110) (DK 8400) (FD $18). THIRD-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Paddy Pimblett (-550) (DK 9400) (FD $23) vs. Rodrigo Vargas (+400) (DK 6800) (FD $8).
One of the biggest showmen to hit the UFC since Conor McGregor is back in the Octagon after his shaky but impressive first-round finish over Luigi Vendramini. His reward for his highlight-reel KO is that he is now being spoon-fed a win in front of his home crowd. Kazula Vargas has really not looked good as of late and even though Paddy is early on in his UFC tenure I’d still say this is about as close as a mismatch as you could get for him. Vargas is 1-2 with his lone win being his surprise victory over Rong Zhu. Vargas really hasn’t faced anyone with the skill set of Pimblett and Paddy packs a lot of power in his punches and can also take a good shot to give one back. Pimblett is also a much more calculated and mentally fit fighter who can really take control of the fight if it transitions to the ground. Pimblett is very good at setting up his combinations with kicks but could do a better job at defending himself after combinations. The bottom line is, I think Pimblett has fought and beaten tougher guys than Vargas and I am looking forward to seeing what Pimblett brings to the Octagon this weekend.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Paddy Pimblett (-550) (DK 9600) (FD $16) FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible FIRST-ROUND KO).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Ilia Topuria (-550) (DK 9300) (FD $22) vs. Jai Herbert (+400) (DK 6900) (FD $9).
He’s back. After an extremely impressive KO win over a guy nobody wanted to fight in Ryan Hall, Topuria is back. This pick isn’t to say that Herbert is a bad fighter because he’s not, he’s just running directly into a freight train. Topuria is so technically gifted but on top of that, he also has INSANE power and has a well-rounded attack with threats coming from every direction. There’s really no nice way to say this but Topuria is simply going to beat the breaks off of Herbert. Even with the move up in weight class for Topuria he still holds, in my opinion, a decided edge in striking and a very clear edge in grappling. Statistically, Herbert has a negative strike differential (-0.63) in the UFC while Topuria holds a positive strike differential (+0.85). In the takedown department, that’s where things really break away. Topuria averages over 3 takedowns a fight and Herbert holds a takedown defence rate of only 30%. Realistically Herbert is going to struggle a lot in this one and I do not see this fight reaching the final bell.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Ilia Topuria (-550) (DK 9300) (FD $22) FIRST-ROUND KO.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Tom Aspinall (5 ROUNDER) -138 (DK 8300) (FD $18)
Muhammad Mokaev -400 (DK 9100) (FD $21)
Molly McCann -138 (DK 8400) (FD $18) (DK Value Play)
Cory McKenna (FADE) -250 (DK 8800) (FD $19)
Nikita Krylov -188 (DK 8700) (FD $19) (Paul Craig works too, the only path to victory for Craig is through Submission, leaning towards fading this fight)
Sergei Pavlovich -350 (DK 9000) (FD $20)
Mike Grundy -170 (DK 8500) (FD $17)
Gunnar Nelson -550 (DK 9200) (FD $21)
Arnold Allen -110 (DK 8000) (FD $17) (Very close fight, I like Dan Hooker a lot too, may end up having shares of both sides on this fight)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I will be building 4 GPP lineups. I will be focusing on the three targets and my honorable mention fighters listed in my article to be a part of 99.9 percent of my lineups. Some fights in this slate are tricky to predict a winner and all fights are pretty close
I’m building lineups that can variate from the field and taking bigger risks tonight. I will use my core fighters (Locked-In, Honorable Mention) to be a staple in my DFS lineups, and I will build around them using the available salary with the remainder of my predicted winners. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
MonkeyKnifeFight: Knockout Kings!
Below I have listed my top three plays for MKF’s Knockout Kings Contest!
(Alternate: Sergei Pavlovich)
