Allan Fabrykant 
DARIUSH V TSARUKYAN
After a week-long break, UFC is back in Texas for tonight’s Fight Night Card. This card is sneaky and chock-full of talent and long-awaited returns, namely, Miesha Tate, who will be looking for her first win since 2021. There will be 12 fights with some great matchups throughout the card. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 4:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC on ESPN 52 Dariush vs Tsarukyan
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Bobby Green vs Jalin Turner
Usually, I think Turner would be an absolute lock, he’ll have a big height and reach advantage, and after watching how he fights, I know he’ll incorporate those advantages into his fight style. My main concern is the short turn around. He’s coming in on seven days’ notice! That, compiled with the fact that Turner is on a two-fight losing streak while Green is on a two-fight winning streak, makes it hard for me to lean toward Turner in this one, even though he is the favourite. Don’t get me wrong, I think this will be a close fight, but I see Green having a bit of an edge here. Even when you look at the stats, Green strikes at a wild pace, with 6.15 strikes landed per minute while only absorbing 3.66 strikes per minute. That lands Green at a higher SLpM, SApM and Defense rate than Jalin Turner. Not only that but Green can avoid takedown attempts effectively and he is more than willing to eat a shot to land one. This should be a very fun fight to watch, and in a card that doesn’t have many good underdog options, Green is a solid option.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Bobby Green UNANIMOUS DECISION.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Rodolfo Bellato vs Ihor Potieria
This is my favorite fight on the card. Bellato is making his UFC debut off of a monster performance in his second Contender Series appearance two months ago. In this fight, Bellato changed levels after struggling to find a rhythm on the feet, then proceeded to dominate on the ground, eventually finding the second-round finish against the to-that-point undefeated fighter. Bellato showed excellent fight IQ in his Contender Series appearance and made necessary judgements after the loss he suffered against Vitor Petrino (Petrino is an excellent fighter. There is no worry for me in having this loss on his record) in his first Contender Series appearance. This is an excellent skill to have when making your UFC debut. In particular, he credited his teammate and Light Heavyweight Champion, Alex Pereira, for teaching him how to utilize the Thai Clinch. In this fight, in particular, Bellato has advantages on the feet and on the mat over Poterhia, so I don’t see how Poteria lasts more than two rounds. He’s a lock for me in Daily Fantasy, and for the Sportsbook, I’ll be taking Bellato to win the fight in the distance.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Rodolfo Bellato SECOND-ROUND KO (possible FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Punahele Soriano vs Dustin Stoltzfus
I know Puna has been struggling a bit as of late, but this fight is the perfect opportunity to regain some confidence and find his form again. Stoltzfus has not shown many good performances throughout his five-fight UFC career, with only one win to his name coming by Unanimous Decision (his opponent has not fought since), where he came back after losing the first round to win by controlling most of the fight on the ground. That is going to highlight the main task for Soriano: stay on the feet. In striking, he has a huge advantage (power, speed and technique). If Puna is able to take control of the fight early, I can see him cruising to a win in this one.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Punahele Soriano SECOND-ROUND KO (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION)
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Armen Tsarukyan 5 ROUNDER
Rob Font (This is a very close matchup. I am leaning towards Font with his height and reach advantages)
Sean Brady (I really like Kelvin Gastelum as an underdog option on Daily Fantasy, but I think Brady has a bit of an advantage with his impressive grappling and submission skills)
Joaquim Silva
Miesha Tate (Honestly, I’m not confident about either fighter in this matchup. For this matchup, I would recommend taking the fight to go the distance at -230 and avoiding it altogether for Daily Fantasy)
Zachary Reese
Drakkar Klose (This is a very close fight; I’m on Klose’s side by a very thin margin)
Wellington Turman (Like Bellato, Turman also benefits from having Alex Pereira as a training partner)
Jamey-Lyn Horth (For extra sportsbook value on this fight, I would recommend taking Horth to win via Decision [+145])
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Rodolfo Bellato (Double Chance KO/Submission) -325
Zachary Reese -275
Punahele Soriano (Double Chance KO/Decision) -225
