Allan Fabrykant 
ALMEIDA V LEWIS
After a week-long break, we are back in Brazil with more UFC action for UFC Fight Night 231! The last UFC event was wild. The UFC 294 Card did not disappoint with surprising moments and crazy finishes, and tonight, we have a stacked Fight Night Card with a highly anticipated main event, all kicking off at 6 PM ET! There will be 11 fights ending with a highly anticipated heavyweight fight in the main event slot. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. Even though these fighters are not the most active, they can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Night 231 Almeida vs Lewis
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Kaue Fernandes vs Marc Diakiese
This one is a tricky pick because Kaue is making his UFC Debut in this spot, and Diakiese is easily the toughest opponent he has faced to date. But, as far as UFC fighters go, Diakiese is really at the bottom of the barrel. He’s lost four of his last six fights and hasn’t gotten a finish win since 2017. This may very well be a fight where Diakiese passes the torch to the next generation. Fernandes is coming off two straight first-round finishes in LFA, a well-known UFC talent development organization and had previously amassed a 6-0-0 record in Shooto Brasil, another well-known MMA organization. Fernandes has had some crazy knockouts thus far, and I can see Diakiese eating one of Fernandes’ nasty kicks early, leading to a finish.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Kaue Fernandes SECOND-ROUND KO.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Vitor Petrino vs. Modestas Bukauskas
Petrino is an absolute specimen. He is 9-0-0 with two UFC wins and came into the UFC via a second-round KO in the Contender Series. Although his opponent, Bukauskas, has shown an incredible ability to bounce back, following a devastating knee injury with four wins, two in Cage Warriors and two back in the UFC. Unfortunately for Bukauskas, Petrino is a massive step up in competition that he won’t be able to handle. Petrino’s power is simply going to be too much for Bukauskas, and I don’t see this fight going past the second round. Petrino has an incredible ability to switch up his striking to the head and body. If he does not see success on the feet, he is also a solid Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioner and can lock up a submission, as we saw in the third round of his last fight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Vitor Petrino FIRST-ROUND KO (possible FIRST-ROUND KO).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby
Bonfim is an excellent example of the UFC showing off the best Brazilian talent in front of the hometown fans. Bonfim currently holds a 15-0-0 record with four straight first-round finishes, including in his two UFC wins (both in 2023) and his appearance on the Contender Series. His most impressive finish, in fact, was his Contender Series win, where he defended a choke with a Von Flue Choke and won the fight. Bonfim is versatile, athletic, and can take a shot if he needs to. He lands an impressive 6.08 strikes landed per minute (SLpM). That is over two strikes more per minute than his opponent, Dalby. Although Dalby has had some success in the UFC, this is a really bad matchup for him and with a 62% takedown defence rate, I can see this fight ending via submission very early on.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Gabriel Bonfim FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION)
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Jailton Almeida (Derrick Lewis is a viable option for Daily Fantasy, but Almeida is a heavy favorite for a reason; he is a big-time talent, and Lewis will have a hard time taking him out of the fight.)
Rodrigo Nascimento
Armen Petrosyan (Petrosyan will be much better on the feet, and Vieira will be much better in BJJ, but as the fight goes on, I don’t think Vieira’s tank will hold up, giving Petrosyan a big edge)
Elves Brener
Caio Borralho
Rinat Fakhretdinov
Denise Gomes
Eduarda Moura (Moura missed weight, but I really do not see a way Ruiz doesn’t get outmatched for the entire fight)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Gabriel Bonfim (Double Chance Submission/Decision) -170
Rinat Fakhretdinov (Double Chance KO/Decision) -140
Rodrigo Nascimento -200
