Allan Fabrykant 
UFC Fight Night 224
ASPINALL V TYBURA
After a wild card last week, we are travelling across the pond for today’s UFC card! Today’s fights will kick off at 12:00 PM ET. Lots of top British talent will be on display tonight, so you won’t want to miss this one! Read more below to find out my takes on tonight’s matchups! Tonight there will be 15 fights ending with a heavyweight fight with two fighters looking to enter into the title contenders conversation. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 12:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event, as these fighters are both usually active and can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC Fight Night 224 Aspinall vs Tybura.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Yanal Ashmouz vs Chris Duncan
Not to take anything away from Chris Duncan, but when I saw that Ashmouz is coming in as an underdog, I was a little shocked. I think Ashmouz should be coming into this one as a clear favorite and I’d even consider taking him to finish the fight. Through seven fights Ashmouz has six finishes, including four knockouts, while Duncan is coming off a bit of a shakey performance where he eeked out a split decision win against Omar Morales in his UFC debut. Although Duncan secured some takedowns in that fight, he still only secured a 35% takedown rate. That’s not going to cut it against someone with the BJJ background of Ashmouz. The bottom line is that these are two strong prospects with a big opportunity here, and throughout their careers, Ashmouz has shown more consistency and power than Duncan. As such, I’m taking Ashmouz in the underdog spot here tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Yanal Ashmouz SECOND-ROUND KO.
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko
McCann was completely outperformed in her last fight against Erin Blanchfield, and it showed many folks the different levels of Women’s MMA. This bout is very similar in that sense, but instead of McCann being the outmatched opponent, in this fight, she’s the far more talented fighter. Stoliarenko’s career in the UFC has not been great. Over her five UFC fights during this stint, she has one win and four losses. She did not look like she belonged in any of those fights, and with the pressure McCann is going to put on her, I can only see this fight going one way. When looking at strikes landed per minute (SLpM) and strikes absorbed per minute (SApM), it is not even close. For starters, McCann has a positive strike differential of +0.82, while Stoliarenko has a negative strike differential of -1.86. These numbers are quite significant, especially when compared side by side. In this case, I think it’ll tell the story of the fight. McCann will put on tremendous pressure, and Stoliarenko will simply not have a response on the feet.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Molly McCann SECOND ROUND KO.
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Joel Alvarez vs. Marc Diakiese
Although both these fighters are coming off a loss, there is a big difference between the two losses and their fights prior to that loss. For Alvarez, he lost to prime Arman Tsarukyan last year, in a fight where he couldn’t find a way to get an advantage in the fight and was ultimately knocked out in the second round. Regardless, a loss to Tsarukyan is nothing to be ashamed of. On the other hand, Diakiese’s loss last year to 36-year-old Michael Johnson, who prior to had won one fight since 2018 is far less excusable. Not to mention Alvarez was coming into his last fight with four straight UFC wins, including two KOs and two submissions while Diakiese was coming in with a far less impressive record of 2-2 over his last four bouts. I think this fight will have a clear story behind it. Both these fighters are fairly evenly matched on the feet, with Alvarez having a slightly higher output overall but the big difference here is the ground game. Alvarez a BJJ brown belt has a lot more experience and skill than the purple belt Diakiese and I think as soon as the fight goes to the canvas, Alvarez will be bringing Diakiese into his world and will end the fight with a submission victory.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Joel Alvarez SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION.
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Tom Aspinall 5 ROUNDER
Nathaniel Wood
Andre Muniz (I’m siding with Muniz with this one but it is a very close fight in my opinion, closer than the odds suggest. Both these fighters have good BJJ and can submit their opponent. Muniz, however, also has good knockout power)
Jai Herbert FADE (Honestly, I don’t see much coming out of this fight, most likely a decision win, I would recommend staying away)
Lerone Murphy
Daniel Marcos
Johnny Parsons (This fight is hard to predict as both fighters have big flaws in their game but I have to give a slight edge to Parsons to win)
Mick Parkin (UNDERDOG CALL)
Makhmud Muradov
Ketlen Vieira
Shauna Bannon (Making her UFC debut with a good amount of hype, she has an interesting and winnable matchup for her debut. I think she can take the win here tonight)
Jafel Filho
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Tom Aspinall -450
Makhmud Muradov to Finish +120
Joel Alvarez to Win via Submission or Decision (Double Chance) -110
