Allan Fabrykant 
EDWARDS V COVINGTON
We have made it to the final UFC card of 2023. What a wild ride this year has been! We saw crazy finishes, gladiator-level battles and wild submissions. It all culminates to this UFC 296 in Las Vegas, Nevada. There will be 12 fights with some great matchups throughout the card, including title fights for the Flyweight and Welterweight belts. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:30 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are usually both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight, I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 296 Edwards vs Covington
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Shamil Gaziev vs Martin Buday
Both of these guys are absolute killers in the heavyweight division. They hold a combined record of 24-1-0, and this fight is starting off tonight’s card! One thing is for certain: the fireworks will start early tonight. Both these guys are very heavy hitters and are gonna be swinging shots from start to finish. I really like Gaziev in this spot as an underdog. Despite making his UFC debut tonight, he has been one of the most highly touted prospects in the heavyweight division after his first-round submission in the Contender Series a few months ago. Buday has found success in the UFC thus far over his first four fights, but the reality is that he has not been challenged yet. The majority of Buday’s victories came against absolute cans, and Gaziev will be Buday’s first true test in the octagon. I think Buday will have a better tank, but the threats posed by Gaziev with his strong Daegestani-style submission game combined with his heavy hands are going to be incredibly challenging for Buday to handle. I will be looking to take the underdog in this spot tonight.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Shamil Gaziev FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Shavkat Rakhmonov. vs Stephen Thompson
It is hard to find an equal matchup for Rakhmonov. He has been an absolute killer throughout his five-fight run in the UFC. He has a 100% finish rate and has racked up wins against some serious opponents such as Carlston Harris, Neil Magny and Geoff Neal. Unfortunately for Stephen Thomspn, he really doesn’t have a lot to offer Rakhmonov in terms of a challenge that he has not already faced. Thompson is primarily a kickboxer, and he found good success early on in his UFC career, competing in two close title fights against Tyron Woodley. However, after those title fights, his career started to take a downhill trajectory, and although he is still ranked 6th in the Welterweight rankings, at 40 years of age, his chance to make a run at the title is no longer within reach. He has now picked up more of a gatekeeper role in the Welterweight division, and with tonight’s matchup against the 4th-ranked Welterweight who has a 17-0-0 record, I only see Thompson dropping in the rankings. Rakhmonov will have to adjust his fighting style to compete with an opponent who has a heavy kicking style, but once Rakhmonov has finished his reads and gets his timing it’ll be over, especially if the fight ends up on the canvas.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Shavkat Rakhmonov FIRST-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible SECOND-ROUND KO).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Paddy Pimblett vs Tony Ferguson
It’s been a true fall from grace for Tony Ferguson. Throughout his UFC career, won the interim Lightweight Championship while also holding one of the longest win streaks in his division, and unfortunately, he now holds the longest losing streak in his division with six straight losses. Even though his losses came against strong opponents, he took a lot of damage with a crazy front kick to the face and two submissions. Pimblett has gone a perfect 4 for 4 through his UFC career, and he has been given a big gift in this matchup against an aging Ferguson, who respectfully will not be able to compete with him. Ferguson has had an excellent career, but it may very well be time to hang up the gloves or, at the very least, not compete against the top brass of the UFC Lightweight division. Pimblett has a lot of options to finish this fight, so if he doesn’t find success on the feet, he will have plenty of success in the grappling department. His advantages in both speed and power will shine through.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Paddy Pimblett FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND/THIRD ROUND SUBMISSION)
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Colby Covington 5 ROUNDER
Alexandre Pantoja (This a close fight, but Pantoja is definitely a favorite in my eyes. Don’t be surprised if Royval gives him a solid fight though.)
Bryce Mitchell
Dustin Jacoby
Casey O’Neill
Irene Aldana FADE (You can take her to win via decision at +120)
Brian Kelleher
Tagir Ulanbekov
Andre Fili
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Casey O’Neill -188
Bryce Mitchell (Double Chance Submission/Decision) -190
Paddy Pimblett -334
Shavkat Rakhmonov (to Finish) -200
RISKY ADDS:
Shamil Gaziev (to Finish) +180
Colby Covington (Double Chance KO/Decision) +145
