Allan Fabrykant 
PROCHAZKA V PEREIRA
UFC 295 is here, and boy, do we have a banger card lined up for tonight! Two title fights where new champions will be crowned (vacant and interim belts), debuts, long-awaited returns and a top ten women’s strawweight fight, which all kick off at 6 PM ET in New York City! There will be 13 fights ending with a highly anticipated heavyweight fight in the main event slot. Now, with all that out of the way, let’s get right into the action!
SLATE STARTS AT 6:00 PM ET
Exposure to the main event is highly recommended. DFS production in these fights is usually high as they are five-round fights. I do not recommend branching away from the Main Event. These fighters are both active, and they can rack up a lot of points. There will be three top plays followed by honorable mentions. Now, let’s get ready to make some money!
Tonight I’m here to give you my top three favorite DFS and Sports betting picks for UFC 295 Procházka vs. Pereira.
MY UFC VALUE TARGET (CASH&GPP):
Diego Lopes vs Pat Sabatini
Lopes is making his return to the octagon after an impressive first-round submission win against Gavin Tucker with an armbar earlier this year. However, they may be close to even on the stats. Sabatini relies heavily on his wrestling game, which could lead directly to Lopes’ defensive submission abilities. Lopes also has a significant height and reach advantage over Sabatini, and as the fight goes on, I can see Lopes putting more pressure while Sabatini’s output will drop. If Sabatini can’t get Lopes on the ground, he will have a lot of trouble in this matchup.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Diego Lopes SECOND-ROUND SUBMISSION (possible UNANIMOUS DECISION).
MY UFC LOCKED-IN TARGET (CASH):
Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Matt Frevola
This fight screams BANGER to me, two guys who don’t mind taking a punch to give a punch and who have been in some all-out wars. Saint-Denis, a French special forces veteran and black belt Judoka, has a 12-1-0 record, with his only loss coming in his UFC debut, a 15-minute war against Elizeu Zaleski where Saint-Denis had a very good account of himself despite being outmatched. Saint-Denis followed up that impressive performance with four finishes in a row (2 KO, 2 Sub) and will be looking to pick up his fifth straight against Frevola, who has a streak of his own with three finished fights inside the distance. Even though they strike and absorb at the same rate (similar strike differentials, Saint-Denis slightly higher but both around +0.20), Saint-Denis is far more active both in the striking and grappling department, averaging nearly two more strikes per minute and two more takedowns/15 than Frevola. Saint-Denis is an excellent parlay piece and has a great floor for DFS with his high output.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Benoit Saint-Denis SECOND-ROUND KO (possible FIRST-ROUND KO).
MY UFC TOP SCORING TARGET (GPP):
Mateusz Rębecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts
After getting cut from his terrible first stint in the UFC, two consecutive wins on the regional scene have brought Roosevelt Roberts back on the UFC roster, and in his first fight back… he has already missed weight. It’s not like I was even considering him to begin with, but now it is clear he is not ready for this level, especially not against the 18-1-0 Rębecki. Rębecki has shined throughout his first two UFC fights and his DWCS appearance. Stats-wise, it is not even close. Rębecki hits more, absorbs fewer strikes, is more accurate, defends more strikes, secures more takedowns, defends more takedowns and attempts more submissions. The fact of the matter is that this fight is a mismatch. Rębecki will make it very clear very fast that he is way above Roberts’ skill level.
MY UFC DFS PICK: Mateusz Rębecki FIRST-ROUND KO (possible SECOND-ROUND KO)
UFC HONORABLE MENTIONS:
(Not in order)
Alex Pereira 5 ROUNDER (Jiri Prochazka has a very unusual striking style, and it’s hard for many fighters to get used to right away. For Pereira, however, his striking and kicks are at such an elite level that I can see him controlling the fight early and maintaining a strong advantage while keeping the fight on the feet)
Tom Aspinall 5 ROUNDER (I think this is a very evenly matched fight, and both would deserve the interim belt. This matchup was originally supposed to happen in 2021, but Pavlovich ran into some visa issues. In the first fight, Aspinall was quite heavily favored. I am also giving a slight edge to Aspinall, but this is very much a pick ’em fight to me. Lots of DFS value on both sides)
Mackenzie Dern
Steve Erceg
Lupita Godinez (This is a very close one, and I will not be including taking a winner in this one for my parlays. I’ll be taking the over 2.5 rounds at -360)
Nazim Sadykhov
Mark Madsen
Kyung Ho Kang (FADE)
Joshua Van
Jamall Emmers (missed weight by a pound)
SUMMARY:
On Saturday’s fourteen-bout MMA UFC DFS slate, I am finally allowed to bet again on UFC as restrictions have now been lifted in my area. As such, I will play 2 Parlays. Remember, to take down a GPP; you have to be different and take risks. Scared money doesn’t make money in tournaments. For any further questions, I will be available until lock in our WinDaily Discord chat. GOOD LUCK, and don’t forget to come back and Win Daily!
PARLAY OF THE DAY
Nazim Sadykhov (Double Chance Submission/Decision) -105
Mateusz Rębecki (Double Chance KO/Decision) -190
Joshua Van -225
