Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/29
It has been a crazy couple of days in the NBA and in honesty, that’s not likely to stop anytime soon. With the league running a very condensed schedule, we’re likely to see a lot of rest games for important players. We stress this at all times but we need to make it clear for the rest of the season – if you can’t be around for lock and the slate, it’s best not to play. At the very least, scaling the bankroll is pretty smart at this juncture. We have an 11 game slate to get into for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/29 to start laying the foundation to find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/29 Injury Report
Pacers – Doug McDermott (Q)
Wizards – Bradley Beal (Q)
Pelicans – Lonzo Ball (Q)
Celtics – Even Fournier, Tristan Thompson (Q)
Nets – Kevin Durant (O)
Heat – Victor Oladipo, Kendrick Nunn (O), Goran Dragic (Q)
Knicks – Julius Randle (Q), Michell Robinson (O)
Pistons – Jerami Grant (Q), Dennis Smith Jr. (O)
Rockets – Christian Wood (Q)
Thunder – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (O), Lu Dort, Darius Bazley (Q)
Kings – Marvin Bagley (O)
Spurs – Lonnie Walker (O), Devin Vassell (Q)
Cavaliers – Jarrett Allen (O)
Bulls – Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen, Daniel Theis (Q)
Warriors – Steph Curry (Q)
Bucks – Bobby Portis, PJ Tucker (O)
Clippers – Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverly, Rajon Rondo (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/29 Positions
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,800 DK/$10,800 FD) – Luka missed two games and is coming off one of his worst games of the season and those factors are irrelevant to me. The Thunder rank 10th in pace on the season and are not interested in winning games at all. Dallas finds themselves sitting eighth in the West and their sluggish start has left them with little to no margin for error. Luka sports a 36.1% usage rate and a 1.56 FPPM against a team that the Mavericks absolutely have to beat. Sign me up.
Derrick Rose ($4,900 DK/$5,500 FD) – Point guard is interesting to me tonight. There are plenty in good to great spots like De’Aaron Fox, Kyle Lowry (if active), Malcolm Brogdon, and others. At the same time, the lower-level in salary is pretty attractive and I can see myself spending on other spots. Rose leads the pack in my eyes. Why? Well, because Thibs is gonna Thibs. For those who might be new, that means coach Tom Thibodeau plays his starters monster minutes. Rose missed 10 games and came back to play 29 minutes. His price doesn’t match that potential. So far with his time in a Knicks uniform Rose has shown a 24.7% usage rate and a 1.03 FPPM.
Theo Maledon ($5,800 DK/$5,100 FD) – I’m not sold on DK since Rose is $900 cheaper but on FD, Maledon feels almost must-play in one of the PG spots. That can change by lock tomorrow but with the Thunder still missing very important pieces, Maledon looks incredibly appealing. Dallas is 24th in defensive rating on the season and Maledon is locked into 32+ minutes. With that amount of court time, a 19.7% usage and a 0.86 FPPM look more than solid for $5,100.
Honorable Mention – Fox, Kyrie Irving, Lowry, Brogdon, and possibly Goran Dragic
Shooting Guard
DeMar DeRozan ($7,900 DK/$8,400 FD) – DDR is not a normal piece of this article but there are exceptions to every rule. For one, he’s under $8,000 on DK even though he’s only SF-eligible. Without LaMarcus Aldridge on the floor (who now makes the Nets a “super team”…insert the Dr. Evil riiiiigggghhhhtt in this spot), DeRozan leads the Spurs in usage at 26.6% and FPPM at 1.21. Now we put him up against the worst team in the league as far as defensive rating in the Kings? Sounds like a fun time to me, especially since both teams are in the top half of the league in pace.
Zach LaVine ($8,400 DK/$7,500 FD) – Alright so if we’re just game log hunting, this pick looks terrible. This is still Zach LaVine last time I checked and I’m not sure his price should drop so much just from a bad three of four games. In the first game with new teammate Nikola Vucevic, LaVine still sported a 29.5% usage rate. He hasn’t shot above 40% from the field over the last four games and this is a player flirting with 52% on the season. Facing the Warriors is a spot to get back on track since both teams are in the top-eight in pace. The FD price is incredibly low.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD) – This is contingent on Lonzo Ball remaining out of the Pelicans lineup. If he does, NAW will continue to be a very popular cash play across the industry and with justified cause. On the season, he’s sporting a 23.1% usage and an even 1.00 FPPM. The price hasn’t exceeded what we reasonably need from him yet and anything under $6,000 keeps him in play. There’s not a ton to say about this play past the popularity he’d carry. If Lonzo plays, pivot to Terrance Mann who is likely to be quite popular himself. With the Lou Williams trade, Mann has been seeing minutes with at least 28 in three of his past four games.
Honorable Mention – Paul George, Caris LeVert and I love Anthony Edwards in GPP
Shooting Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($8,900 DK/$9,500 FD) – I always find myself looking at Kawhi in this spot. The results against Giannis Antetokounmpo are a bit varied, but this has to be a measuring stick-style game for Kawhi. These teams faced off in late February and Leonard scored 45 DK points, right about his average. With the Bucks playing at the third-fastest pace in the league, this is a great spot for Kawhi and the DK price especially is too cheap. On top of that, the SF position is nothing to write home about yet again.
OG Anunoby ($6,300 DK/$$6,600 FD) – OG has been playing well the past five active games since returning from a Covid absence and is a…scoring threat? Anunoby typically is relying on his defensive skill set but he hasn’t dipped below 15 real points since coming back from an absence. Since Norman Powell is now with the Blazers, that opens up opportunities for OG as well. Detroit ranks 22nd in turnovers per game so there is plenty of steals upside for Anunoby and the minutes are secure at 30+.
Malik Beasley ($5,600 FD) – An FD special, Beasley returned to the Wolves lineup last game. He played 29 minutes and jacked up seventeen shots, which is quite the feat playing with Edwards and Karl Anthony-Towns. Despite only hitting four of the 17 shots, Beasley managed to score just under 30 fantasy points. He’s too expensive at $6,800 on DK but on FD he’s still very cheap and the matchup against the Nets should bring out the potential upside here.
Honorable Mention – Jimmy Butler, Jaylen Brown, Kevin Porter, Rui Hachimura
Power Forward
Zion Williamson $8,800 DK/$9,000 FD) – I swore off Zion for a little while because the Pelicans couldn’t or wouldn’t recognize he was the best player on the court. That might be changing as not only has he taken 19 and 20 shots the past two games, he’s the main cog in crunch time. Check out this video from Kevin O’Connor of the Ringer –
In the past four games, Zion has scored 30 or more real points in three of them. Those games have seen him total 107 points on a total of 52 field-goal attempts which is absurd. Taking Ball off the court helps Zion as well, with a bump of 3.2% in usage to bring it to 32.1% total. Boston lacks any real interior presence to help quell Zion and if he gets another 20 shots, a whole lot of them arguing to go in.
Alexsej Pokusevski ($5,400 DK/$4,800 FD) – A rebuilding/tanking team presents us with opportunity and Poku is one of those players. He sees the court a ton now, upwards of 32 minutes on some nights. There’s no doubt he’s finding his way a little bit and the shot is….not consistent to be kind. Even with a ghastly true shooting rate of 38.6% with no SGA and Horford, Poku has managed to scrape together a 0.81 FPPM. Just imagine if the shot becomes passable, not even great. Getting the spot against the Mavericks should accentuate the positives for Poku and the Thunder have every desire to run him the rest of the way.
Note – There are some names I have my eyes on but don’t have clarity on quite yet. In Brooklyn, I’m going to possibly have one last game of playing Nicolas Claxton if LaMarcus Aldridge isn’t active yet. If LMA plays, I’d back off Claxton. I could also possibly be looking towards Trevor Ariza, but the Heat will have Nemanja Bjelica active to potentially take away minutes from the older veteran. Lastly, I want to see if this name picks up any steam for popularity – Dean Wade. The young forward for the Cavaliers played 31 minutes last game with Jarrett Allen out and could do so again. The spot isn’t great against the Jazz but the FD price is super cheap.
Honorable Mention – Giannis, Domantas Sabonis (smash spot), Jayson Tatum
Center
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,900 DK/$10,000 FD) – I can already hear folks asking for blowout concerns and I would say this – Minnesota lost by 22 last game and KAT still bulldozed his way to 56 DK points. We’ve attacked Brooklyn the entire season with big men, let alone talented and multi-faceted threats like Towns. The man might not play defense but he can score the basketball. He averages over six paint touches a game and can score from anywhere on the court, let alone rebound the ball. Brooklyn has gone up to 13th in that category but that just means KAT is needed even more on the boards. As we sit the night before, he’s one of my favorite plays on the board.
Moses Brown ($6,800 DK/$6,500 FD) – Part of me says I don’t love this price but the other part is saying to get over it and just play the kid. He had a weird game last time out where he flirted with a Barbara Walters special in the first half and then barely made a dent in the second half. I think that’s part of what bothers me slightly but 50 fantasy points are 50 fantasy points no matter how it comes. Brown is at nearly seven paint touches a game and Dallas is bottom 10 in both rebounding and paint points. It’s been a struggle for them all season, frankly. Brown has turned in a sparkling 1.24 FPPM without Horford and SGA on the floor this year and I think the field is ready to chase the outburst from the last game.
Honorable Mention – Bam Adebayo, Richaun Holmes, Jonas Valanciunas, Kelly Olynyk (if Christian Wood is out)
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/29 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
