Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/26
The Trade Deadline is now officially behind us and we can all agree that the Denver Nuggets won the deadline. I will be taking no further questions at this time. We get a sprawling 11 game slate this evening which can be difficult, but we’ll narrow down the pool of who we should be looking at in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/26!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/26 Injury Report
Nets – Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant (O), James Harden (Q)
Pistons – Hamidou Diallo, Dennis Smith Jr., Rodney McGruder (Q)
Suns – Mikal Bridges (Q), Abdel Nader (O)
Heat – Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic (Q) – They only had nine players in the lineup last night, so keep an eye on this team
Hornets – LaMelo Ball (O)
Magic – Terrence Ross (Q) – The Magic will likely be a premier value team tonight with a complete blowup of their team yesterday, although DK did price some of them up.
Nuggets – Monte Morris (Q)
Pelicans – Lonzo Ball (Q)
Rockets – Kevin Porter (Q)
Hawks – Cam Reddish (O)
Warriors – Steph Curry (O)
Cavaliers – Collin Sexton (Q)
Lakers – Anthony Davis, LeBron James (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/26 Positions
Point Guard
John Wall ($8,300 DK/$8,200 FD) – I almost went with Trae Young here again but I would suspect Wall draws some pretty massive attention. The Rockets parted ways with Victor Oladipo yesterday in a trade so Wall is the man in the backcourt now. With Dipo off the court along with Eric Gordon, Wall is a monster by the numbers. The sample is over 230 minutes and he’s seen a usage rate over 39% and a 1.37 FPPM. Oh, by the way, his true shooting is 45.4% in the sample. If all that wasn’t enough, both of these teams are top-five in pace and the Wolves are bottom-six in defensive rating. Expect Wall to be popular.
Terry Rozier ($7,600 DK/$7,000 FD) – LaMelo Ball may be gone for the season but Scary Terry is doing what he can to keep the Hornets relevant. In the two games Ball has been out, Rozier has scored 24 and 25 real points and eclipsed 36 DK. The lower score came on just 30 minutes as Charlotte whooped the Rockets and he was done early. Miami should still be under-manned after making some trades and Rozier is right next to Gordon Hayward in usage without Ball at 24.9%. Miami isn’t anything special in defensive rating but I’m always willing to stack teams on back-to-back this year.
The lower rung of PG needs some clarity before we decide. For instance, if Butler is out again for the Heat we need to go right back to Kendrick Nunn who is not priced nearly accurately. Mike Conley is under $6,000 on FD but I feel like I write him up every single slate. You know the story by now that he’s got the safe floor that we crave for cash. Even Michael Carter-Williams is in play, though I don’t love the DK price. We’ll let the news roll in before taking a stand.
Honorable Mention – Luka, Chris Paul, Kyle Lowry, Darius Garland (if Sexton is out)
Shooting Guard
Note – If Terrence Ross is active for the Magic, he’s in play even at the price point. Without all the players Orlando traded yesterday, Ross boasts an absurd 40.8% usage rate and a 1.22 FPPM across 126 minutes.
James Harden ($10,800 DK/$11,300 FD) – Let’s not pretend like this isn’t the best play on the board if Harden is active. The great news is the Nets are off the West Coast, so we will know the status of Harden in time to decide. All that needs to be said is in the last game without Kyrie and KD, Harden scored 60+ fantasy points shooting 7-24 from the field. You play Harden without questions as long as he’s in tonight.
Fred VanVleet ($8,000 DK/$8,000 FD) – Make no mistake, the Raptors are going to miss the scoring of Norman Powell with the trade to the Blazers. When he leaves the court, FVV has a usage of over 26% and a 1.12 FPPM. It does have to be noted that going after the Phoenix Suns is not the normal path to success. This is an exception since the Raptors are down to the big three of FVV, Lowry, and Pascal Siakam. These guys will play 35+ minutes tonight and FVV will help replace the 19.6 points a game that Powell was scoring.
Chasson Randle ($4,100 DK/$4,000 FD) – I would back off of this pick if the model really disagrees, but Orlando should be down to nine players IF Ross is active. Randle has o see minutes at that point and the good news is he’s not nearly as expensive as some of the other Magic players. Portland is bottom-two in defensive rating and on a back-to-back to boot. I hesitate to use the sample much but Randle does have a 1.05 FPPM in their situation tonight. It’s only 59 minutes but Orlando has to field a team tonight.
Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, Caris LeVert, Marcus Smart, Tyler Herro (if Butler remains out)
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram ($8,200 DK/$8,300 FD) – Boy the SF position doesn’t look super fun tonight. This might look a bit “chase-y” as Ingram just lit up the Nuggets for 50+ fantasy points but I believe there’s reason to think that happens again. If Zion Williamson and Nikola Jokic are battling down low, BI has more opportunity to shoot. It’s not like he needs a lot of encouragement with at least 21 attempts in the past four games but the Nuggets will have a tough time guarding him. I still firmly believe Zion is the better player right now to run the offense through but for tonight, Ingram has the better upside. Also, his position is gross as the top end is all injured.
Danuel House ($5,200 DK/$5,500 FD) – We’ve actually hit the point of the year where House is a viable option. Do I love using players that need to score to hit value? Not exactly and the usage for House is poor at 14.7%. However, he’s still showing a 0.80 FPPM and we talked about the elite pace matchup for this game. House can get hot from deep and the Wolves give up the sixth-highest field goal percentage from deep. This is about getting a piece of the game and House is typically good for 30+ minutes. That shouldn’t shift with Dipo out of town.
Jame Ennis ($5,000 FD) – There is zero chance that I’ll play Ennis on DK at $6,000 (!!) but on FD I need two and Ennis fits with an Ingram if you choose that route. There’s not a ton to break down here. Orlando will be lucky to have nine players, Ennis can play 30 minutes or so and he almost has to fall into some production. Portland is about as good a spot as you can ask for on top of it.
Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, OG Anunoby, Michael Porter Jr., Shaddiq Bey
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,700 DK/$11,000FD) – I’m not worried in the least about the last game for Giannis and look at it as a bonus now. He’s back under $11,000 on DK and if we get the proper value, maybe we can consider playing him and Harden together. If Harden is out altogether, Giannis is right at the top of my list for an anchor for cash games. In theory, this is a great spot for him. Not only has Boston been poor in the interior all year, but they are also down Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson tonight. We can like Robert Williams but he’s not stopping Giannis down low. The 32.7% usage and 1.65 FPPM should be on full display tonight.
Draymond Green ($7,500 DK/$7,000 FD) – I likely don’t land in this range myself but Green is interesting. I have a feeling that he sat last night because of the back-to-back and would expect him to play tonight. He’ll see some of John Collins on defense which is something we like to chase. Dray is always an exception to the rule because his usage is trash and he doesn’t score real points virtually at all. I mean, he’s under seven real points per game. He does fill up the stat sheet routinely and is still the lynchpin of the offense.
Isaiah Stewart ($4,100 FD) – If you play DK, I’d much rather play Nicholas (Speedy) Claxton since both players are center only and Claxton is cheaper. Both sides of this game are vulnerable down low so picking a side based on site makes plenty of sense. Stewart continues to play 20-24 minutes per night. That’s interesting and he averages a 0.92 FPPM on the season. We know Brooklyn gets pounded in the paint right now and Stewart has 5.5 paint touches per game in his part-time role.
Honorable Mention – Domantas Sabonis, Jayson Tatum, Pascal Siakam, Trevor Ariza
Center
Clint Capela ($7,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – I know we have Jokic and Karl Anthony-Towns on the slate but I find myself going right back to Capela. We loved him in the last game against the Kings and he went OFF for over 50 fantasy points. He’s top-five in paint touches, field goal attempts, and rebounding chances on the season. Much like Sacramento, Golden State does not defend the paint. They rank 27th in paint points and 23rd in rebounds. The salary just didn’t creep up enough tonight to not go back to the well.
Christian Wood ($8,400 DK/$8,000 FD) – Rounding out our Rockets exposure is Wood. Of course, you’re not playing all of them but Wood is square in the crosshairs this evening. We attack KAT defense (or lack thereof) whenever it makes sense and tonight is one of those times. Wall has the usage lead by a good bit but the FPPM is much closer with Wood sporting a 1.28 mark to 1.37 for Wall. You can make a strong case for a Wall/Wood/KAT/Anthony Edwards stack and just hope those four players slug it out all game in GPP. Wood has played about 36 minutes once since moving back from injury and the game should stay close.
Honorable Mention – KAT, Joker, Stewart, and Claxton on DK
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