Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22
We’re back with another eight-game slate tonight and it features not one player over $9,500 on DK. That’s a rarity anymore and will lead us to a bit more balanced builds than we always utilize. We can also expect Milwaukee Bucks chalk now that Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for the game tonight. There are still plenty of other plays to discuss in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22 to lay our foundation to find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22 Injury Report
Kings – Marvin Bagley (O)
Cavaliers – Kevin Love (O)
Thunder – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Al Horford (Q), Darius Bazley, George Hill
Hornets – Terry Rozier (Q), LaMelo Ball, Cody Zeller (O)
Rockets – Christian Wood, John Wall, and Victor Oladipo could be rest candidates
Bucks – Giannis Antetokounmpo (D)
Celtics – Kemba Walker, Tristan Thompson (O)
Hawks – Cam Reddish, De’Andre Hunter (O)
Clippers – Serge Ibaka, Patrick Beverly (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22 Positions
Point Guard
Jrue Holiday ($6,800 DK/$6,800) – We’re kicking off the Bucks coverage immediately and Holiday stands to be wildly popular. Just like yesterday with the Lakers, I’m only using two options to write-up in the positions we use the Bucks. There’s a trio of Bucks that will be the stone chalk. When we take Giannis off the floor leaves Holiday with a 27.5% usage rate and a 1.27 FPPM, which is already enough. Now we can add in that the Pacers just played yesterday and roll into this one a bit fatigued. Malcolm Brogdon is indeed on the other side of the matchup and generally, we avoid that defense but this is an exception to the rule. Holiday should easily push for more than 32 minutes tonight and since Giannis didn’t pop on the injury report until after the slate came out, he’s not priced correctly.
Mike Conley ($6,400 DK/$6,000 FD) – Conley is almost always in the running for cash games because he is steady Eddie. You can count on him for a solid floor and the Bulls matchup represents a nice pace upgrade. Utah is playing a little faster anyway and the Bulls are in the top seven themselves. The 22.8% usage rate and a 1.09 FPPM make Conley super appealing in this spot and he’d be a nice pair with Holiday on FD. Like I mentioned earlier, there’s not a ton to spend up on for this slate.
Honorable Mention – Trae Young (if we know his status before tip), Kyle Lowry, Theo Maledon (if the Thunder continue to be short-handed)
Shooting Guard
Paul George ($8,200 DK/$8,200 FD) – The minutes are back to being spiked up for PG13 and in honesty, they have to get their act together out in LA. He’s played 37, 41, and 32 minutes in the past three games and the last game was a blowout. He and Kawhi Leonard are almost identical in usage at about 29% and FPPM at right around 1.30. I will point out that both teams are in the bottom 10 in pace on the season but they are 15th and 16th in defensive rating as well. Without an upper crust to spend on, George is a pretty easy spend, especially on FD.
Collin Sexton ($7,100 DK/$7,300 FD) – I’m usually pretty hesitant to use Sexton in cash because he’s not a steady player. It’s a lot of high and low-end results but there are a couple of factors that work in his favor. For one, he is sixth in minutes across the entire league. If you tell me I’m getting 36 minutes or more of a player against the Sacramento Kings, you have my curiosity. You have my attention when you say that Sexton has a 29.9% usage. The ball is in his hands constantly and he averages nearly six seconds per touch. It’s hard to not see him scoring some fantasy points in the matchup tonight.
Marcus Smart ($5,600 DK/$5,000 FD) – It will likely be overlooked with the Giannis news but Kemba Walker will be out tonight for the Celtics. That means Smart should pick up a few extra minutes and his usage actually crosses 20%, which is a rarity for him. Smart also first with a 1.00 FPPM and will be called upon to defend Ja Morant at some points. Morant averages three turnovers per game so Smart could pilfer a pass or two on top of everything else. The price is pretty reasonable on both sites.
Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Donovan Mitchell
Small Forward
Jaylen Brown ($7,900 DK/$7,800 FD) – He’s most likely not going to go Full Steph Curry like yesterday when he hit TEN three’s (yes 30 of his 34 points came from 10 triples) but Brown is still an excellent play. Walker off the floor has a big effect on Brown and Jayson Tatum as both go up to at least a 32.3% usage rate and a 1.24 FPPM. Tatum does hold an edge in both categories but Brown is under $8,000 for those ratios. Memphis is up to ninth in pace and that’s a big upgrade from Boston’s 20th rank. Pairing him with the next Buck makes plenty of sense.
Khris Middleton ($7,600 DK/$7,000 FD) – The prices are crazy low and I would be surprised if Middleton didn’t clear 75% roster-ship on FD. It’s basically the same song and dance with Holiday, as Middleton sees a usage bump to 32% and the FPPM goes up to 1.36. You can’t find anyone at that level of usage for the prices we’re talking about on either site. The matchup doesn’t really matter, you’re just taking the free square and moving forward.
Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard, OG Anunoby, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($9,000 DK/$9,100 FD) – Looking at the results since the All-Star Break, one would think we’d be avoiding Sabonis. He hasn’t cleared 40 fantasy points in three of those six games. There’s a very easy reason to assume and it’s because Caris LeVert has been worked into the Pacers lineup. The usage has gone down to just 21.7% which is a significant loss. However, the FPPM is still very robust at 1.39. That’s better than the seasonal mark of 1.27 so the addition of LeVert to the lineup has not had the effect I originally thought. To wit, he has games of 61, 65, and 51 DK so the ceiling has certainly been there.
I think it had much more to do with the matchups with Bam Adebayo twice and Nikola Jokic. With Giannis out, Sabonis has a much easier path to production and he makes for a natural run-back with the chalky Bucks for a cherry on top.
Bobby Portis ($4,100 DK/$3,700 FD) – Portis might be more of the definition of a free square than Middleton is. His prices are insane for the situation (not the fault of any site) and the field is going to go right to him first and foremost. It would make the most sense for Portis to enter the starting lineup and he has the most minutes without Giannis on the floor. In that sample, he has a 1.10 FPPM and a 21.4% usage rate. Milwaukee will need the size to help with Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis on the other side as well.
Honorable Mention – Tatum, Christian Wood (if available)
Center
Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,500 DK/$9,700 FD) – I wonder if KAT picks up some steam just by default as the most expensive player on the slate. Does the field just anchor to that with Bucks chalk? Perhaps and that makes sense. Looking at the results of the past few games you can clearly see Towns has had issues with back-to-backs. We’ve noted that before and he’s had rest for this game and it’s not a bad spot at all. KAT has a 29.8% usage rate and a 1.37 FPPM with the Wolves still missing players, and it might be hard to overlook that. The Thunder will have a tougher time matching him even if Al Horford plays. He doesn’t have the athleticism to stick with KAT.
Jarrett Allen ($7,600 DK/$6,700 FD) – I was on him last night to just average results but I’m going right back to the well tonight. If you’ve ever read on a slate with the Kings on it, you know that we go after them with centers. They rank dead last in paint points allowed and 15th in paint rebounds. This is the perfect spot for Allen since he does all his work in the paint. Allen is in the top 10 in paint touches and point scored, not to mention he has a 1.13 FPPM with Cleveland. The FD price especially is super attractive.
Honorable Mention – Clint Capela, Al Horford
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/22 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
