Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19
As is normal for the NBA, we have a giant Friday night slate with 10 games. It’s always a good time to remind everyone that the field has the same number of roster slots and salary that you do. Don’t beat yourself up about players that aren’t in the lineup, focus on who is and why. Let’s narrow down the pool and start building the foundation in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19 so we can find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Games
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19 Injury Report
Kings – Marvin Bagley (O)
Celtics – Tristan Thompson (O)
Spurs – DeMar DeRozan (O)
Pistons – Hamidou Diallo, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder (O)
Rockets – John Wall (Q), Eric Gordon, David Nwaba (O)
Nets – Kevin Durant, Blake Griffin (O)
Magic – Terrence Ross, Micheal Carter-Williams, Cole Anthony (O)
Warriors – Steph Curry, Kelly Oubre (D), James Wiseman, Eric Paschall (O)
Nuggets – Monte Morris, Gary Harris (O)
Mavericks – Dorian Finney-Smith, Willie Cauley-Stein (O)
Blazers – Jusuf Nurkic (O), CJ McCollum could be an injury management candidate
Wolves – Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19 Positions
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($10,700 DK/$10,400 FD) – I can already assume that Brian will be talking about this game in total but Luka is going to be my primary focus. Damian Lillard is a very appealing target on his own but Luka has the clearer path to rack up assists and rebounds. Both teams are 23rd or worse in defensive rating on the season and the Blazers are on a back-to-back (and third game in four days). It’s Luka in a dynamite spot in a very important game for the West standings. Let’s not overthink this one.
Delon Wright ($6,000 DK/$5,600 FD) – What a phenomenal situation Wright finds himself in tonight. First, the Pistons are missing both Wayne Ellington and Rodney McGruder. Last game, Wright played a monster 37 minutes and has reeled off three straight games over 30 fantasy points. When those players are off the floor on the season, Wright has been sporting a 1.10 FPM with a usage rate of about 19%. The second part of this is the fact that he’s playing Houston and that’s a titanic pace upgrade for the Pistons. Detroit is in the bottom five while Houston in fifth. That’s in the wheelhouse and Wright should have no issues paying off his salary here.
Jordan Poole ($4,500 DK/$4,600 FD) – If you’re playing DK, Poole is only SG eligible but I would suspect he’s going to be heavy chalk. He’s been a spark plug on the second unit lately, scoring at least 14 real points in the last five games. Curry will almost certainly not play and across 223 minutes, Poole is sporting a huge 25.9% usage and a 1.10 FPPM. I would have to think he’s in the starting lineup tonight but we do need to make sure of that before locking and loading. Keep an eye on Discord for updates.
Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving, Dejounte Murray, Tomas Satoransky (could still be heavy chalk)
Shooting Guard
Victor Oladipo ($8,300 DK/$8,100 FD) – Houston has gotten blitzed throughout nearly 20 games, but the Pistons shouldn’t blow them up. That makes me more interested in Dipo since Wall is likely to be out again. Even with Kevin Porter coming into the lineup, Oladipo has maintained a 33.5% usage rate and a 1.22 FPPM. That’s something we need to be interested in and even the returning Christian Wood doesn’t ruin Oladipo. The trio should be the entire Rockets offense and this game hopefully sticks close all the way through.
Caris LeVert ($6,900 DK/$5,600 FD) – On DK, I think the play is Tyrese Haliburton for $1,200 cheaper if he continues to start for the Kings. He played 32 minutes last game and is still under $6,000 there. On FD, they haven’t reacted to LeVert fast enough. Both players are basically the same price but LeVert has meshed well with his new team and played progressively more minutes. In his three games, LeVert has a usage rate of right about 25% and is a 1.00 FPPM per player. That would leave him right around 32 fantasy points, still within range at the FD price tag. The game with the Heat is a great matchup for East seeding on top of everything else.
Marcus Smart ($5,300 DK/$5,000 FD) – I generally despise writing up Smart for cash because he’s a volatile player. However, since he missed so much time his price went down and now the minutes are just about back. He played 29 in the last game and 24 the game before that, leaving him a path to 30+ fairly clearly. He’s in the top-five in steals per game and facing a Kings team that is dead last in defensive rating helps immensely. Boston also has to get their act together to make a push, so I do a least feel secure with the minutes for Smart. On the season, the 0.87 FPPM is good enough at this salary for the spot.
Honorable Mention – James Harden, I’ll be interested if Anthony Edwards picks up steam after going bonkers last night, Josh Jackson on FD
Small Forward
Kevin Porter Jr. ($7,200 DK/$7,000 FD) – I have interest in Jimmy Butler over on DK but the FD price is still hard to get around. Instead, I’ll look to KPJ (he is just PG/SG on DK) and the new lease on his career in Houston. Even with a 51.1% true shooting rate with the big team, he’s averaged a 1.19 FPPM and the usage is over 27%. Much like Oladipo, Wood coming back will not end the usefulness of Porter for DFS. The Pistons are only 19th in defensive rating and we should get full run of 32+ minutes of KPJ in this game.
Micheal Porter Jr. ($6,700 DK/$6,500 FD) – Perhaps I was a bit too tough on Porter in the earlier portion of the season. He did miss extended time with Covid and had some inconsistency coming back from that, which is nothing to sneer at. He’s put that behind him lately with at least 30 fantasy points in eight of the last nine games. Additionally, he’s scored at least 20 real points in five straight and Denver needs that type of production from him. Chicago is actually 16th in defensive rating but seventh in pace and that’s where I want to utilize Porter.
Larry Nance ($5,200 DK/$5,300 FD) – Nance was chalky last game and the price didn’t come up nearly quick enough to prevent that again. It can be hard to predict chalk nearly 24 hours ahead of time but I’m betting Nance is a top-five chalky play tonight. Nance is sort of an odd bird as he’s not a usage monster at all. He only has a 14.7% usage and you could sort of refer to him as a (and I stress this word) very poor man’s Draymond Green from a fantasy perspective only. Nobody in Discord come at me and say I compared Nance to Dray! The Spurs are inside the top 10 in pace and Nance has an excellent shot at a double-double tonight.
Honorable Mention – Evan Fournier, OG Anunoby (FD), Shaddiq Bey
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum ($8,900 DK/$8,900 FD) – Tatum is sub-$9,000 and is playing the worst defensive team in basketball? Sounds like a fun time to me. It’s been a little bit since Tatum has had a true ceiling game but we don’t always need that end in cash game settings. This is still a player that’s sporting a usage rate over 29% and leads the starters with a 1.24 FPPM. The true shooting is 62.5% on the season and he’s shooting 37% from behind the arc. Sacramento is in a virtual tie for giving up the worst three-point field goal percentage in the league, another bonus for Tatum tonight.
Lauri Markkanen ($5,700 DK/$5,600 FD) – He’s going to see some Michael Porter defense and I’m all about attacking that. Markkanen has been a lock for 32 minutes and he really just needs the shot to fall a little bit. That’s been a challenge with a couple of games of just four made attempts lately, but the spot couldn’t be that much better. The Nuggets aren’t the best defensive team overall and Markkanen sports a usage over 22%. I wonder if this game flies under the radar a little bit, but we’ll see how things unfold through the day.
Note – Speaking of unfolding, PF is a little weird for a 10 game slate. There are a bunch of options up top including Domantas Sabonis, Bam Adebayo (FD price is silly), Jerami Grant, and potentially Aaron Gordon all as options. If he plays, Gordon against the Nets sticks out for sure. We need to make sure he’s active, however.
Honorable Mention – I really like taking a shot with Isiah Stewart in GPP as his minutes have been up lately for the rebuilding Pistons.
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 DK/$9,700 FD) – Deciding between Vuc and Nikola Jokic tonight is very, very difficult. The last time the Joker tangled with the Bulls, he posted 77.3 FD points from a 39/14/9 effort. That may be the GPP move as I suspect Vucevic will be the much more popular choice. Why? Well, the matchup against Brooklyn certainly helps. They have been dominated by centers all season long and Vuc is one of the better ones in the business. With all the injuries for the Magic, Vuc has been the man with a 30.3% usage rate and a 1.43 FPPM. He’s under $10,000 and I believe the field just takes the cheaper option over Joker, but I could also be wrong. I obviously love Big Honey tonight in any format.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,500 DK/$7,300 FD) – I’m a little nervous about this game. I know we always say don’t worry about blowout but Golden State without Steph is about as sketchy as it gets. Still, it’s hard to look past My Name Is Jonas here. The interior of the Warriors is down James Wiseman again and JoVal has over a 1.25 FPPM on the season. Additionally, Golden State is 26th in paint points allowed and 23rd in rebounding. Valanciunas is sixth in paint touches on the season. I don’t think he gets a lot of attention with the Vuc/Jokic combo but there’s no reason not to like the floor of JoVal if nothing else.
Robert Williams ($5,800 DK/$5,700 FD) – There are a couple of notes for Williams here. Firstly, I don’t think we’ll end up playing three Celtics in cash. Yes, the spot is among the best in the league but it’s still a 10 game slate. Stacking three Celts is not likely to be the solution. Secondly, in the Tatum blurb, I mentioned he leads the starters in FPPM. I made sure I said it that way because Time Lord leads the team at 1.33.
Since the break, he’s sitting at a massive 1.61 FPPM and we need to pay attention here. With Thompson out, Williams has played 17, 19, 22, and 27 minutes in the past four games. He’s recorded two double-doubles and fell one rebound short of a third. Sacramento is 29th in paint points allowed and 27th in rebounding. The pace suits Williams and he looks like a great option tonight.
Honorable Mention – KAT (destroyed Phoenix last night)
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 3/19 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
