Core Four Thursday 3/10

Core Four Thursday 3/10

The NBA is back on Wednesday after a long All-Star Break but we only have two games tonight. Brian pointed it out in the awesome Picks and Pivots, but here’s a significant difference in the way Vegas views this game as the Wizards game sports a 237 over/under compared to just 222.5 for the Mavericks game. Additionally, it has a smaller spread of just three points so I’m focusing the majority of my lineup on that game for the Core Four Thursday 3/10!

Core Four Thursday 3/10

Core Four Thursday 3/10 – Member One 

Ja Morant ($7,800 DK/$8,000 FD) – Buckle up for basically a full stack of this game. I’m not sure if I’m playing Luka at this juncture. He is projected to be the highest-rostered player on the slate but this slate also lacks a lot of real value. Instead, I’ll start with Ja in a better game environment. Morant has been a little tough to peg this season. The last two games before the break saw him score 35 real points and 50+ DK and one of them came against this Wizards team. In the previous three, he didn’t clear 36 DK so there’s volatility here. 

Still, this is an obvious ceiling spot. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the league and they have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league. Russell Westbrook also leads the league in turnovers per game at 4.8 so Ja could get a couple of easy steals. He leads the team with nearly a 29% usage rate and here’s where it gets very interesting. Ja is second in frequency as the pick and roll ball handler. Washington gives up the fourth-most points per game to that play type. All of this adds up to an elite spot for Morant. 

Core Four Thursday 3/10 – Member Two

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100 DK/$7,000 FD) – My Name Is Jonas is back in the Core and the last game against Washington was pretty misleading. We look and see that he only had 35 DK and maybe you would think he’s overpriced. However, he hit a snag with fouls in the first half and scored just 10 DK points. That means the second half he hit 25 DK and that’s the kind of ceiling we’d be looking for. The big man leads the Grizzlies with a 1.25 FPPM and scores 1.04 points per possession as the pick and roll man. The Wizards give up 7.1 points per game to that play type, meaning not only are both JoVal and Morant great plays but they correlate well on top of it. Those two players carry the highest correlation on the Grizzlies. Add in that Washington is 26th in paint boards and points allowed while JoVal is fifth in paint touches means this is a smash spot from every facet. 

Core Four Thursday 3/10 – Member Three

Justise Winslow ($3,900 DK/$4,800 FD) – This will be the last Grizzlies player and if there’s a time to stack against the Wizards, it’s on a two-game slate with a big over/under. Winslow hasn’t been spectacular coming back from a major injury and is only playing about 20 minutes per night. That end isn’t ideal but the usage is. Across his 134 minutes of court time, Winslow has a 24.2% usage rate and a 0.88 FPPM. That’s with an abysmal 41.7% true shooting rate, which isn’t surprising since he missed so much time. I’m more than willing to play someone that has that style of usage at this price and Grayson Allen still being out doesn’t hurt either. 

Core Four Thursday 3/10 – Member Four 

Bradley Beal/Russell Westbrook – I’m cheating a bit because I think there’s a split between these two players depending on the site you play. On FD, Westbrook is projected to be much higher rostered since he’s still under $10,000 there. Beal is the second-most expensive player on FD and will not likely be as popular or needed. These two have such a high usage rate that they can be played together. Both sit over 30% on the season and Westy is at a 1.41 FPPM despite the true shooting rate of 48.4%. Westbrook is still a threat to triple-double every single night right now and the Wizards are pushing for a playoff spot.

On DK, Beal makes a little more sense to my eyes since he’s cheaper. His true shooting is nearing 60% and his usage is spiked at 35.6%, which leads the league. He’ll actually be rostered tonight on a short slate but the NBA’s leading scorer is disrespected on a nightly basis for being rostered. Much like Ja and JoVal, Westy and Beal correlate very well together because they are the whole offense. Everything flows through them so my plan is to have exposure to both and play them together tonight in various lineups. I will likely be underweight on Luka and just hope this game goes nuts since I’m only playing GPP tonight.