Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/26
Much like yesterday’s slate, there’s not a ton of injury news at the top for this nine-gamer. There are also only three players that are over $10,000 on DK so we should have plenty of options to talk about. I’m not sure there’s one game that is really head and shoulders above anything else, either. Let’s dig into this big slate and talk about the paths for the green screens in NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/26!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/26 Injury Report
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)
Kings – Hassan Whiteside (O)
Pistons – Delon Wright (O), Shaddiq Bey (Q)
Clippers – Nothing but they are on a back-to-back, so Paul George or Kawhi could sit
Heat – Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo (Q)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O), Cam Reddish (Q)
Thunder – Hamidou Diallo, George Hill (O)
Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (O), Cody Zeller (Q)
Lakers – Dennis Schroeder (P)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/26 Positions
Point Guard
Steph Curry ($9,900 DK/$10,000 FD) – I had thoughts about Damian Lillard or Trae Young here and they are great plays. However, I simply can’t get away from Curry in this spot. For one, the Hornets are second in three-part frequency allowed at 46.4%. Secondly, Curry shot 1-10 from deep last game. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that’s not happening again. Steph has the most minutes played on the Warriors, the highest usage at 31.7%, and the highest FPPM at 1.45. This is everything we can want when playing Curry.
Dennis Schroeder ($5,900 DK/$5,700 FD) – Schroeder comes back into one heck of a game environment as the Blazers are a significant pace-up spot. Additionally, the Lakers pretty clearly need all hands on deck right now. Things haven’t gone well since AD has been out and they have to get some of the workload away from LeBron if he’s going to play 38 minutes a night. That’s where Schroeder comes in with his 23.5% usage rate. Putting him against a team that has the 29th ranked team in defensive rating. I’ll take 32-34 minutes at this salary any night.
Saben Lee ($4,300 DK/$5,400 FD) – There’s going to be a slate where Lee busts, but he’s going to be highly-owned as long as the price is low and the game logs look good. With another 30 fantasy points under his belt, the field will go back for more. My fear is he only played 22 minutes last game but he still scored 13 real points. Even 20-22 minutes against the Kings and their 30th ranked defensive rating should be enough. Sacramento is 10th in pace in contrast to 26th for Detroit on top of it as well.
Honorable Mention – Malcolm Brogdon, Chris Paul, Mike Conley
Shooting Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000 FD) – I won’t be paying the premium for SGA on DK after his MONSTER game last time out, but FD hasn’t adjusted quickly enough. The high-end salary isn’t particularly overwhelming tonight so SGA stands out. He leads the team in assist rate at 34.6% and usage rate at 27.6%. Both squads are in the top 15 in pace and SGA getting some Trae Young defense on the other side isn’t going to hurt either. I suspect him to be popular on FD tonight.
Josh Jackson ($6,400 DK/$5,700 FD) – I’m not totally in love with the DK price but the production has been impeccable lately. Jackson has taken 18, 17, and 23 shots in the past three and he’s settled into his bench role. He’s also played between 29-32 minutes every night as well so that’s secure for cash games. Over the past week, Jackson actually leads the entire team in usage at 29.3%, even more than Jerami Grant. He’s a very easy fit on FD and the pace that Sacramento brings is nothing but fantastic.
Note – We’ll see what ownership and news bring us as far as other value options for tonight.
Honorable Mention – Paul George, Donovan Mitchell, Gary Trent
Small Forward
Pascal Siakam ($7,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – Pay no attention to the dud last game and focus on the previous 11 where Spicy P could almost be penciled in for 40 fantasy points. He walks into an elite spot against the undersized Rockets since they are still down Christian Wood and DeMarcus Cousins is a free agent. We just watched Jarrett Allen go totally nuts in this same spot. Don’t get me wrong, Siakam and Allen are different players BUT Siakam is smart enough to hammer a weakness. Houston was top 10 in paint points allowed but that’s not going to be the case with players out. Siakam sits right about five paint touches a game but expect that to change tonight.
Gordon Hayward ($6,700 DK/$7,100 FD) – I understand that Hayward has not played well lately for the most part but this price is just too low. With Graham off the floor, Hayward and Lamelo Ball are within 0.2% in usage and 0.01 in FPPM. Yet, the prices on DK are $2,000 different. In an up-tempo spot with the Warriors at second in pace, this salary makes little sense. I wouldn’t be surprised if the field likes Hayward a lot. In competitive games, Hayward is playing 33-35 minutes a night.
Danilo Gallinari ($5,000 DK/$5,900 FD) – Alright so I want to be upfront – I hate this play. Sure, Gallo went OFF last game but it doesn’t take a genius to figure out why. He went 10-12 from three-point land, accounting for 30 of his 38 real points. Now, we do have to say that the game should play quick and the Thunder are ninth in three-point frequency allowed. This just has all the earmarks of Gall scoring like 18 DK points and totally flopping. Let’s see what projections look like and go from there before we figure out if we want this play.
Honorable Mention – LeBron James (could well be the chalk), OG Anunoby (FD mores than DK)
Power Forward
Damontas Sabonis ($10,400 DK/$9,900 FD) – I’ll continue to (sadly) fade on DK classic, but I’ll get my Sabonis fix on FD. I will be playing him on DK in the Tiers format. He walks into another elite spot since the Celtics have no real interior defense. They rank 25th in paint points allowed and 17th in rebounding. Sabonis is sixth in paint touches overall and points scored in the paint per game, not to mention third in rebounding chances per night. With an FPPM over 1.25 and a usage over 27%, Boston is going to have some issues containing the big man tonight.
Draymond Green ($6,900 DK/$7,300 FD) – This is about as high as I’ll go for Dray, but here we are. WE’ve picked on the Charlotte interior a lot this year and will continue to do so. Granted, Green isn’t the traditional center but he’s so important to the Warrior’s offense. With all the defensive attention on Curry, Green has to facilitate and be a playmaker. There’s a reason his assist numbers are so high, seventh in the league. That’s right, Draymond has more dimes per game than Ja Morant, De’Aaron Fox, and John Wall to name a few. Green always has an outside chance at a triple-double and will play 35+ minutes when the game is close.
Kyle Kuzma ($5,700 FD) – DK continues to be asleep at the wheel but FD has me coming back for more. Kuzma mostly is what he’s been all year, a scorer that’s not always going to do a whole lot past that. The rebounding can show up and tonight could be a good spot for it since Portland is 12th. I mean, to Kuzma’s credit he snagged seven against the Jazz who are first. The last game was the first time Kuzma didn’t play at least 34 minutes since AD has been out and the first time he shot fewer than 13 times. All of that should come back tonight, and I’m in on FD anytime under $6,000.
Honorable Mention – Jerami Grant, Marvin Bagley, Isaiah Roby
Center
Mason Plumlee/Richaun Holmes ($6,500/$5,900 DK/$7,000/$6,500 FD) – This spot is honestly elite for both players. For PlumDawg, we always love bigs against Sacramento and why wouldn’t we? They are dead last in paint points allowed and 22nd in paint rebounds. Plumlee is inside the top 12 in paint ouches on the season, which is a great mark to work with. I especially love the price on DK, and on FD where center is kind of wonky, he works even at $7,000.
On the flip side, Holmes gets Plum defense which isn’t anything to be scared of at all. Detroit is way down at 27th in rebounding and mid-pack in paint points allowed. His minutes have been ramping up since returning from injury from 21 to 26 to 28 last night, so as long as he’s active this is a fantastic spot. The DK price especially is appealing, as is potentially going double center on that site.
Deandre Ayton ($6,800 DK/$6,800 FD) – I always sort of hesitate to use Ayton when the Suns are healthy. It can turn into a Chris Paul or Devin Booker game real fast. However, I simply can’t ignore this price and spot to beat up on. No player touches the ball more in the paint than Ayton. Chicago is 28th in paint points allowed and average in rebounding. He only has a 1.05 FPPM but should be a complete lock for a double-double and more tonight.
Honorable Mention – Montrezl Harrell, Wendell Carter
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/26 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
