Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/24
We’ve got a larger nine-game slate tonight and there is virtually no injury news outside of one team. The Spurs are missing at least four key rotation players, and that’s IF LaMarcus Aldridge suits up. We’re going to need multiple players from their squad in cash and GPP tonight, so let’s talk about it in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/24 to find the green screens!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/24 Injury Report
Celtics – Marcus Smart (O), Kemba Walker has been sitting back-to-back sets
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O), Cam Reddish, John Collins (Q)
Rockets – Christian Wood (O), Victor Oladipo, Eric Gordon (Q)
Cavaliers – Larry Nance (O)
Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)
Raptors – Kyle Lowry (Q)
Heat – Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic (Q)
Pistons – Delon Wright (O)
Pelicans – Steven Adams (Q)
Spurs – Keldon Johnson, DeMar DeRozan, Derrick White, Rudy Gay, Devin Vassel (O), LaMarcus Aldridge (Q)
Note – I don’t want to have most of the article be Spurs so you will very likely need two or three Spurs in cash. I’m looking at Dejounte Murray first and foremost, and I expect him to be chalky. The next best play in my eyes is Patty Mills. After that, we need LMA news because if he’s not ready, Jakob Poeltl jumps into the fray as well. Just be ready to play Spurs is really the point here.
Thunder – George Hill (O)
Hornets – Gordon Hayward (Q), Devonte’ Graham (O)
Lakers – Anthony Davis, Dennis Schroeder (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/24 Positions
Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,800 DK/$9,600 FD) – Not only is Young underpriced, but he’s on fire in the real points department. Over the past four games, he’s scored at least 28 real points every night and he has a usage rate right around 36%. If the Hawks are down Reddish and Collins, lookout. Through an 82-minute sample size, Young has a 42% usage and a 1.80 FPPM.
We just watched Luka Doncic rip up this Boston defense and while they’re not the same player, they do have some of the same traits. Boston is 23rd in paint points allowed and Young drives the fourth-most in the league. On top of that, Young is fourth in attempts from the drive. If Young scores 30 real, I’ll take my chances everything else works out.
Mike Conley ($6,100 DK/$5,600 FD) – I’m highlighting Conley again but much like two days ago, this is Kendrick Nunn’s spot if Dragic and Herro are both out. They are the same price on both sites and we’ll know the Miami situation long before the Jazz game tips. Conley is too cheap on FD especially, where he shouldn’t really be under $6,000. He’s sporting a 0.92 FPPM but has a 23% usage and a 23.4% assist rate. With the Lakers not having a scary defense right now, it’s full steam ahead if we can’t use Nunn.
Saben Lee ($3,800 DK/$5,000 FD) – Lee has come out of absolutely nowhere to set DFS on fire the past couple of games. He was super chalk last night and will be again tonight. Lee doesn’t start but he’s logged 28 and 32 minutes the past two games with Delon Wright out. I’m not exactly expecting 30+ fantasy points all the time, but he’s likely to be over 75% tonight. It’s a very nice bonus that the Pelicans get smoked by point guards. Just ask Brian about that. It’s the night before but I would guess the Dejounte Murray/Lee combo will be very popular on FD.
Honorable Mention – John Wall, Lamelo Ball (FD)
Shooting Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,500 DK/$7,500 FD) – SGA is still seeing a significant price contrast between sites. On DK, you may as well just play Zach LaVine. I love the spot for him in a big pace-up spot with the Wolves but on FD you’re approaching a $2,500 difference in salary. LaVine would either have to go bonkers or SGA is going to have to flop to not be a similar (if not superior) point per dollar spend. SGA is the Thunder team when he’s on the floor, rocking a 29.2% usage rate and a 1.22 FPPM when George Hill is out. A player like that should be $8,000 or more so take the discount and move forward.
Kevin Huerter ($5,400 DK/$5,300 FD) – I’m not even a fan of this play but my first look at SG on FD under $6,000 is….not great. Huerter is going to see a ton of court time with Hunter out and Collins and Reddish highly questionable. The slightly good news is with these three players off the floor, Huerter has a 23.5% usage rate. The bad news is he’s only turned it into a 0.78 FPPM but with 35+ minutes, everything will work out. On DK, this is a spot reserved for Patty Mills without much hesitation.
Honorable Mention – Devin Booker (All-Star snub narrative…half-kidding), Collin Sexton, Eric Gordon (if active)
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($9,300 DK/$9,200 FD) – On DK, Buckets is going to get bonuses for double and triple-doubles. Over on FD, he gets the three points for a steal or a block so either way, I’m perfectly happy paying for him tonight. If Dragic and Herro are out, Butler features a 45.2% assist rate, 27.3% usage rate, and a 1.32 FPPM. The fact it’s over a 180-minute sample size means it’s pretty trustworthy and Toronto is dead last in rebounding. With the assist rate sky high and rebounding upside, this seems like a triple-double spot for Butler. I wouldn’t let the 29 minutes played last game scare me.
Brandon Ingram ($8,100 DK/$8,000 FD) – I would really like a piece of the Pelicans tonight, but I’m not 100% sure where to get it. Ingram is certainly a candidate, as he’s sporting a 27.8% usage and a 1.16 FPPM. Detroit doesn’t possess a defender that would stop him in my eyes since Jerami Grant has racked up the worst defensive rating of his career. Overall the Pistons are 19th in defensive rating and with the Pelicans running fast, I’m finding myself excited for one of the New Orleans big two.
The value spot for SF is really open right now. If Oladipo is out for the Rockets, David Nwaba would be a fantastic pick as he was the first man off the bench last game. We can go right back to Shaddiq Bey (who I do really like on FD especially) as the minutes are secure and he’s shown stability. We’ll just need more information during the day.
Honorable Mention – LeBron James, Pascal Siakam, Jaylen Brown
Power Forward
Damontas Sabonis ($9,900 FD) – I’m not willing to cross the five-digit threshold on DK, but FD may well be different. Sabonis has the All-Star snub narrative as he’s the first player to ever average 20/10/5 and not be selected. He now gets Golden State on a back-to-back set and even though they did get their bigs back, they still aren’t good defenders. He’s already posted 18/14/6 on this defense and he didn’t even play well that game. I’m not letting that worry me as this is an elite spot since he has a 27.1% usage and a 1.12 FPPM. He’s also inside the top 10 in all paint categories, while the Warriors are bottom 10 in paint points allowed and 19th in rebounding. Sabonis is going to show why he’s an All-Star.
Zion Williamson ($8,800 DK/$8,500 FD) – I’ll be the first to tell you the price is getting up there, but the safety is there as well. Zion leads the Pelicans in FPPm and the jump in pace has done him some good. The former Blue Devil is eighth in paint points on the season and even though Detroit has been solid as a team, Zion is unstoppable down low. He’s in the top 20 in post-up frequency and Zion posting up on Mason “PlumDawg” Plumlee is going to result in some Duke on Duke crime. I may reserve Zion for GPP, but am totally comfortable with the floor he’s bringing any more.
Kyle Kuzma ($5,700 FD) – Kuzma might be hard to pass up on FD. He’s playing plenty of minutes and has taken 13, 21, and 16 shots the past three games. He’s very scoring dependent on most nights but I do have to give him credit for hitting the boards. He’s over six per game, but this isn’t a great spot for that. Utah is 0.2 rebounds per game from the top spot in basketball. I’m not paying nearly $7,000 for a player in a bad spot for boards but on FD he fits so much better. A Sabonis/Kuzma paring could work well, but we need Aldridge news as well.
Honorable Mention – Jayson Tatum, Bam Adebayo (FD), Draymond Green
Center
Clint Capela ($7,800 DK/$8,200 FD) – This is a smash spot regardless, as Boston has had trouble in the paint all year so far. Collins being off the floor is interesting for Capela. He drops by 3.4% in usage but the FPPM is basically stagnant. Just a couple of games ago, Capela racked up 55+ fantasy points in just 31 minutes. With Boston being 17th in rebounding and struggling guarding the paint, Capela can replicate something like a 15/15 line with a ceiling for more.
I also absolutely love Karl Anthony-Towns again. He’s under $10,000 on both sites and flirted with a triple-double in his first game with a new coaching staff. It’s a glorious spot against the Chicago front-court and he could be a priority spend since we have so much Spurs value. Pending what projected ownership is, KAT might be the cash play and Capela the GPP play.
Jarrett Allen ($7,700 DK/$7,600 FD) – I feel like I can just write that Allen is going to be defended by P.J. Tucker and Ghost can just run in screaming, “Whoooooooooooo?” and you’d get the point. In seriousness, Allen is off the leash finally and he’s a fantasy monster so far. The last three games have seen him clear 32 minutes and not coincidentally, he’s posted at least 43 fantasy points. We just saw Wendell Carter from the Bulls annihilate this frontcourt and Boogie Cousins is a free agent. The upside here in a massive pace-up spot could approach 60 DK and I’m here for it.
Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,800 DK/$5,400 FD) – Speaking of Mr. Carer, he’s in play here as well. We’ll have enough value that I envision spending on center but if your build is different, WCJ can be considered here. Minnesota is 24th in rebounding and not even KAT is going to solve all those issues. The Wolves are 12th in paint points to be fair but at the same time, we know KAT defense can be exploited. The 1.08 FPPM is perfectly fine at this price, but as we stand I do prefer the spend ups with the Spurs value plays.
Honorable Mention – Al Horford, Willy Hernangomez if Steven Adams is out
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/24 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
