Adam Strangis We get a slightly larger slate tonight and hopefully one that doesn’t have a star player ruled out 15 minutes after tip. It was extremely frustrating to roster Steph Curry but it is, unfortunately, the way of the NBA anymore. With the bigger slate, we can hopefully avoid the grenades in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/21 and find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/21 Injury Report
Thunder – George Hill (O)
Cavaliers – Taurean Prince (O)
Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)
Knicks – Mitchell Robinson (O)
Pistons – Delon Wright (Q), Blake Griffin (O)
Magic – Aaron Gordon, Cole Anthony (O)
Sixers – Ben Simmons, Shake Milton (Q)
Raptors – Kyle Lowry (Q)
Nuggets – JaMychal Green, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Rajon Rondo, Bogdan Bogdanovic (O)
Nets – Kevin Durant (O)
Kings – Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes (O), but back-to-back so it’s not for sure yet
Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/21 Positions
Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,700 DK/$9,200 FD) – The FD price seems like a glitch, even though Young hasn’t exactly been the greatest fantasy dynamo this season. He’s also come to life with 50+ fantasy points the past two games, sort of like his adversary on the other side. Jamal Murray has been off the charts recently and this matchup is going to be a lot of fun to watch. The high end of salary at this position comes down to these two choices in my eyes. I believe Young has a slightly higher floor since both players need to score a lot to hit the ceiling. Overall, Young’s 31.5% usage and a 1.43 FPPM take the lead for me, but I can’t hate Murray against Young’s defense either.
Darius Garland ($5,600 DK/$5,900 FD) – I have virtually no interest in GPP, but Garland could be pretty popular. The kid just plays so many minutes, that it can be hard to turn away from at this salary. The Thunder play at the ninth-highest pace in the league and that’s a really nice boost for Cleveland at 25th. With Drummond out, Garland rocks a 25.8% usage and is only about 2% behind Collin Sexton for the team lead. The FPPM is only 0.93 but he’s been on the floor 36 and 40 minutes the past couple of games.
Detroit Pistons (+2)
Wager $10 on DET
To Beat ORL:$20.87
Lose by less than 2:$19.07
To Lose:$17.62
– We need to keep an eye out here. Delon Wright may not play and is doubtful. If he does not play, Dennis Smith is going to be chalk. He’s super cheap and played 23 minutes after Wright left the last game. Smith played 14 of the 18 total minutes after Wright exited, something we have to look at for his salary. Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving
Shooting Guard
James Harden ($10,600 DK/$10,900 FD) – DK took the Nets at their word and swapped Harden strictly to point guard, but FD has let him be. Regardless, the primary ball handler in this offense is Harden. Brian attacks the Pelicans with point guards and Ghost attacks the Clippers with primary ball handlers. They don’t come much more talented than Harden and the Nets are still without Kevin Durant for a bit longer. Harden looks almost no different than the Houston days with a 1.50 FPPM and a 28% usage rate when KD is off the floor. A Dennis Smith/Harden combo would make plenty of sense.
Paul George ($9,100 DK/$8,500 FD) – If you absolutely don’t want/can’t get to Harden, PG13 might be the route to take. I would like to know his minutes limit is gone before forking over this salary, but the matchup is pristine. We know the Nets play so fast and when a team like the Clippers is near the very bottom of the league, it’s a massive boost. George had a 1.33 FPPM n the year and a usage rate right at 29%. The minutes limit would be the only factor holding me back.
Norman Powell ($6,900 DK/$6,500 FD) – Lowry is doubtful, so we can fire up Norm once again. He’s been such a gifted scorer this year when given the chance and I believe he’s going to need to do it more tonight. Pascal Siakam has to deal with Joel Embiid down low and that doesn’t mean Siakam is a zero, but Powell will have more chances. Powell rocks a usage rate of about 24% when Lowry is off the floor, and he plays a ton of minutes. We can almost lock him in for 32-35, and since Yuta Watanabe got put into an early grave by Anthony Edwards on a dunk the other night, maybe Powell gets close to 38. I mean, probably not but I had to reference the dunk somehow.
Honorable Mention – Buddy Hield (FD), Donte DiVincenzo
Small Forward
Kawhi Leonard ($9,500 DK/$9,800 FD) – One player that we’re not worried about minutes is Kawhi, and I love him tonight. Now, that doesn’t mean he’s a lock in cash just because of potential ownership but this is a game where Kawhi can go nuts. The Nets are high-powered but they turn it over the seventh-most in the NBA, perfect for Kawhi. His path is easier with KD out and I struggle to see who they even put on him. With the fast tempo and Kawhi’s ability to post 30 points with steals upside, he’s easy to like tonight.
Cedi Osman ($5,500 DK/$5,400 FD) Cedi is part of a very thing Cavs rotation right now, and he looked like a disaster last game. He was under five DK points but picked it up in the second half, finishing with about 30 fantasy points. That’s going to play at the salary and the field has the recency bias of the flame next to his name last time out. Additionally, that was only playing 26 minutes whereas he can be closer to 30-32 if the game stays close.
Shaddiq Bey ($5,500 DK/$5,300 FD) – The rookie is getting the minutes we love at over 30 and is drilling three’s at a 41.5% clip. The Magic are 11th in three-point frequency at 40.7% and that catches my eye. Knowing that Griffin is on the way out Bey has a lot more safety than he used to. The easier play is Cedi, but if you go mid-range on FD you could use Cedi and Bey together to spend elsewhere.
Honorable Mention –Khris Middleton
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,300 FD) – The floor for Giannis in the last six games has been 50, which is 5x. It’s the easiest 50 fantasy points you can ask for and this matchup is the absolute nuts. The Kings match the Bucks in pace and are on a back-to-back. They have not a single soul that can stop Giannis bulldozing his way into the paint and being a terror. Sacramento is dead last in paint points allowed and 23rd in paint rebounds. As of right now, Giannis is going to be my anchor in cash games and I suspect that the field will feel the same way.
Serge Ibaka ($5,000 DK/$5,300 FD) – I’m testing the waters with bigs against the Nets again here, and Ibaka could really go off for his salary. Ibaka has 5.4 paint touches per game and Brooklyn still sits 28th in that category. That’s plenty for this spot and Ibaka has some athleticism that could give Brooklyn some issues. With Brooklyn also being in the bottom 10 in rebounds, there’s plenty of meat on the bone for Ibaka. In GPP’s, Ivaca Zubac is wildly interesting to me too, since he has more paint touches than Ibaka on a per game average.
Sacramento – Marvin Bagley was supposed to be on a minutes limit last night, but that clearly didn’t happen. Since Bagley played 35 last night, I wonder if he sits tonight. If that’s the case, Nemanja Bjelica will be chalky and he should be. When he’s gotten the minutes, he’s paid off for us so let’s monitor that.
Honorable Mention – Julius Randle (fantastic spot of his own), Nerlens Noel (FD)
Center
Jarrett Allen ($7,100 DK/$7,400 FD) – I would love play Nikola Jokic or Joel Embiid tonight. However, if my anchor is Giannis I don’t believe it does you any good for me to write them up. You likely can’t afford them so let’s talk about the mid-tier. Allen is going to continue to be a fantasy monster if he’s given the minutes, and the Cavs played him 34 last game. Allen preceded to hang 43 DK on just nine shots and double-doubled. Al Horford doesn’t represent the same challenge as Joker, clearing the path for Allen. So far with Allen on and Drummond off, Allen has a 19.7% usage rate and a 1.22 FPPM. Give me all of that over 34 minutes.
Center is hideous right now past the high-end. Clint Capela is fine, but kind of in no man’s land salary-wise. Mason Plumlee is expensive for my taste, as is Hassan Whiteside. I mean, Whiteside has played a combined 30 minutes the past two games. I guess you can play Al Horford on the other side of the Allen matchup but I’m not overjoyed there. Perhaps the day brings us some value that we can use to get off Allen if we don’t like him or can’t afford others.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/21 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
