Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16
Tonight brings us a tidy six-game slate with some injuries already known, so perhaps it will be a bit calmer than most nights. That’s not super likely, but we can dream, right? We have some really tough choices at the high-end of the salary spectrum as well, so let’s not waste any more time and dissect the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16 to see what paths we need to take for green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16 Injury Report
Nuggets – Will Barton, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O), Monte Morris (Q)
Celtics – Marcus Smart (O), Daniel Theis (Q)
Grizzlies – Desmond Bane, De’Anthony Melton (O)
Raptors – OG Anunoby (D)
Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)
Lakers – Anthony Davis (O)
Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)
Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Rodney Hood, Harry Giles (O)
Thunder – SGA, George Hill, Theo Maledon (O)
Nets – Kevin Durant (O)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16 Positions
Point Guard
Damian Lillard ($9,700 DK/$9,500 FD) – Lillard continues to be underpriced on FD and this game should be competitive. OKC has been very frisky even without SGA and it’s not like Portland is a word-beater. The Thunder also rank eighth in pace, a nice uptick from the 17th ranked pace the Blazers play at. Dame drives to the hoop over 15 times per game and OKC ranks 22nd in paint points allowed. On top of that, the Thunder allow the fourth-most three-point attempts per game at 37.3. With Portland missing the players they are tonight, Dame is at a 34.4% usage and a 1.47 FPPM. This is really an excellent spot for him.
Jamal Murray ($7,200 DK/$6,500 FD) – Rarely (maybe never) do I really consider Murray in cash. I absolutely love the talent, but he is pretty sketchy for cash game settings on a nightly basis. Why does that change tonight? The most common starting lineup for Denver has been Murray, Jokic, Millsap, Harris, and Barton. Three of those players are out tonight, as are key rotational players. Murray will have to shoulder an extra offensive load and he played 34 minutes in a blowout last game. When we are those three other starters off the court, Murray sports a 25.2% usage rate and a 1.11 FPPM.
We’re going to be VERY interested in Denver tonight since they are so short-handed. If Morris is out as well, another player I’m pretty interested in (mostly DK) is Facundo Campazzo. He’s near the minimum and played 25 minutes last game, even with Denver having Millsap and Morris playing. We’ll need some clarity but be prepared to roll out a Nuggets heavy lineup if they are down everyone. The great news is this is the first game on the slate so we’ll know before lock.
Dennis Schroder ($5,900 DK/$5,700 FD) – If you’re just game log hunting, this play might not make sense. However, go back more than two games and we see what Schroeder is capable of. Now that Anthony Davis is out for a bit, the crafty veteran will take on a bigger role in the offense. The usage isn’t spectacular at 21.9% but that’s what happens when you play with LeBron. I’m more interested since the Wolves play zero defense (23rd in defensive rating) and are fifth in pace. That’s a massive jump for the Lakers and their defense takes a big hit with AD off the floor. Schroeder is locked into a 30+ minute a game role right now and I’m interested.
Honorable Mention – Kyrie Irving, Chris Paul
Shooting Guard
*Note* I’m not going to write up James Harden as it’s redundant. He and Kyrie are the whole Nets offense while KD is out, there’s no reason not to play him in any format tonight. What is interesting is where the chalk goes. With multiple big-name studs in arguably better spots and similar ceilings, Harden may not be a strong need in cash. We’ll see how the day unfolds.
Devin Booker ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD) – I absolutely love D-Book tonight but full disclosure – I’m not sure if I’ll get there in cash. WE could bladder on about the Nets defense (or lack thereof) or how they play at breakneck speed (fourth in the league) and those are fun factors. However, Booker is awake for arguably the first time all year. He’s been at 27 real points or more in four straight games and last game was only taking 16 shots. He’s learning how to play with CP3 and with the Suns in a huge pace-up spot, Booker could flirt with 55 DK points in my eyes tonight.
Gary Trent ($5,700 DK/$5,800 FD) – We’re not going to spend a ton of time here other than Portland is super thin tonight. They are in line to have 10 players, but only seven that would be in the rotation normally. Trent is going to see 35 minutes again and just like Dame, he’s willing to chuck from beyond the arc. Trent is up to 170 attempts and 44.7% from three-point land, and I’m perfectly fine taking the minutes and a good three-point matchup.
Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,100 DK/$10,500 FD) – Hail to the King, baby. Bron is on his way to potentially capturing the MVP award this year, and the next few weeks are critical for him. If he carries the Lakers like he should while AD is out, it’s going to be his to lose. Make no mistake, he wants it. He’s playing just an immense amount of minutes and fell one dime short of another triple-double last game in just 30 minutes. When you’re posting 51 DK in under your normal allotment of minutes and you get the Wolves defense, that’s all I need to know. His 33.4% usage rate and 1.48 FPPM is outstanding with AD off the court. It should be on full display tonight.
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,800 DK/$5,500 FD) – I’m not loving him on DK, but FD he seems like he’ll be a free square at this salary. His price barely moved there after a sub-par game. I’m not surprised he struggled with LeBron on the other side of the floor in honesty. I’m still not super pumped to play him, but if the Nuggets are down to 8-9 players we’ll likely have to eat the chalk. Even with my hesitance, I have to admit his 22.6% usage rate and a 1.03 FPPM do look perfectly fine at this salary. No LeBron certainly helps a lot too.
Justin Jackson ($4,700 DK/$5,300 FD) – I don’t love the fact we’re sort of chasing Justin Jackson ceiling games, but the DK price is especially solid. Over the past two weeks, Jackson actually looks good by the metrics as well, with a 17.1% usage rate and a 0.82 FPPM. OKC is still going o be down players and Jackson has logged at least 26 minutes in the past four games. I wouldn’t use him on FD unless you’re not spending up at SF. On DK, the price is low enough to consider him and MPJ.
Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Brandon Ingram, Norman Powell
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,300 FD) – Ghost will tell you how much trouble the Raptors have had guarding big men his year, and they don’t come a lot bigger and badder than Giannis. Toronto has no real rim protection at 25th in paint points allowed and their best shot is Chris Boucher. I don’t love his odds of staying out of foul trouble, which means Greek could feast on Aaron Baynes for a lot of the night. On top of that, Giannis has been a monster without Jrue Holiday. On the year, he’s at a 33.9% usage rate and a 1.75 FPPM. That’s the kind of production needed to justify this salary. It’s going to be very tough to pick from the stars tonight.
Jayson Tatum ($8,700 DK/$9,500 FD) – I will continue to harp that one of these times Tatum is under $9,000, he’s going to destroy his salary. Sure, he and the Celtics were trash bags on Sunday but the game before Tatum almost hit 60 DK. He gets some of Michael Porter Defense, which is advantage, Tatum. The Nuggets are also just 16th in defensive rating and it’s a real struggle to see who defends Tatum tonight. His 1.22 FPPM with Marcus Smart off the court looks mediocre, but the 51.6% true shooting won’t last much longer. Buy low at this DK price tag.
Kyle Kuzma ($5,800 FD) – I flat refuse to pay $7,000 on DK (seriously….what?) but the FD price is still palatable at a weaker position. Kuzma has quietly had a pretty solid season off the bench for the Lakers and he’s been hitting the glass hard with 6.1 boards per game. That’s the highest since his rookie year and he’s playing almost eight minutes less a night than that season. Minnesota did miss Karl Anthony-Towns for a lot of the season but Kuzma has a legit chance at a double-double tonight. Kuzma is averaging just under a 1.00 FPPM with AD off the floor this year.
Honorable Mention – Zion, Robert Covington
Center
Nikola Jokic ($10,700 DK/$10,600 FD) – Boy this really looks like a smash spot for Joker. Not only are the Nuggets down players, but Boston also lacks any interior defense to slow him down. Tristan Thompson? I’m wheezing with laughter thinking about TT defense on Jokic. The Celtics are 23rd in points allowed in the paint and 18th in rebounding. Taking the three starters off the court bumps up Jokic too, which is no surprise. He’s just under a 30% usage rate and a 1.74 FPPM. We haven’t got him under $11,000 on either site lately but this is a good time to buy the (slight) dip.
Deandre Ayton ($7,100 DK/$7,000 FD) – How can we not be interested in Ayton tonight? Garbage time duly noted, but Hassan Whitside just went full ham sandwich on this Brooklyn interior. They cannot defend anyone or anything in the paint. Even though Ayton is not a primary option in the Suns offense, he leads the league in paint touches and is second in paint points. Considering he’s top 10 in rebounding chances as well, my hot take is Ayton threatens a Barbara Walters game tonight of 20 points and 20 rebounds.
Honorable Mention – JoVal, Al Horford, Enes Kanter
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/16 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
