Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14
A big thank you to Ghost and Brian for covering when I was off yesterday but we’re back for a seven-game slate tonight! There’s already a bunch of value with the Thunder and potentially the Magic again We have some great spots to pay up for too, so this is going to be Stars and Scrubs even in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14 to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs to be prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this upfront – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it, and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14 Injury Report
Spurs – LaMarcus Aldridge (O)
Hornets – P.J. Washington (Q)
Wolves – D’Angelo Russell (O)
Raptors – OG Anunoby (Q)
Pelicans – Josh Hart, Nickell Alexander-Walker (Q)
Pistons – Mason Plumlee (Q)
Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)
Thunder – SGA, Theo Maledon, George Hill (O)
Magic – Aaron Gordon, Frank Mason (O), Evan Fournier, Cole Anthony, James Ennis (Q)
*Note* If everyone is out and Orlando is down to 8-9 players, feel free to load up on their value plays.
Nuggets – Jamal Murray (Q), Will Barton, Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)
Clippers – Paul George (O)
Grizzlies – Brandon Clarke (Q), De’Anthony Melton, Desmond Bane (O)
Kings – De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14 Positions
Point Guard
Luka Doncic ($11,100 DK/$11,300 FD) – Brian preaches this all the time and even though he is GPP-focused, this rule can be applied to cash games. If we’re going to have a world of value (and we do), why would we not play Luka in this spot? He legit just flashed slate-winning upside with 80 DK. It’s not smart to bank on the exact same result, but Luka gets the Blazers who are 28th in defensive rating. Through the non-fantasy lens, games like this are super important for both teams. Dallas has been crushed by Covid protocols, but is on a four-game win streak and sits three games behind the Blazers. The season is getting shorter in a hurry, to be frank. The game should be fast, won’t feature a ton of defense, and is already important for the playoff race. Wheels up. I don’t know if we’ll do it in cash, but the run back with Damian Lillard is immensely appealing.
LaMelo Ball ($8,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – The DK price still really freaks me out, but LaMelo continued to start last game (Charlotte started Ball, Terry Rozier, and Devonte’ Graham together last game) and he played just under 37 minutes. With how much Ball does on the court, he’s turning into a go-to option for cash with the safe floor. On the year, Ball leads the Hornets in assist rate at 32.6% and a 1.26 FPPM. That’s just straight up, every player in which is impressive. Now, the Dejounte Murray defense isn’t exactly ideal but Ball is not really that scoring dependent. At this price, you do need some but not an immense amount. I still have no issue on FD with the Spurs being 10th in pace with added chances for production.
Michael Carter-Williams ($4,700 DK/$4,400 FD) – The Magic are a moving target right now, so MCW could fall off the cash radar if other players are in. We were told that he would face a very significant minutes limit on Friday, and he turned around and played 27. If that’s limited, count me in here. He had the ball in his hands a lot more than normal since the Magic literally had no point guard last game. If they find themselves with 8-9 players and MCW is the “point guard”, that’s hard to pass at this price.
Honorable Mention – Dame, Kyle Lowry, Ja Morant, Monte Morris (if Jamal Murray is out)
Shooting Guard
DeMar DeRozan ($8,000 DK/$7,600 FD) – I doubt that I’m going there on DK (and he’s not an SG anyway) but the FD price is still appealing. On top of that, the scarcity at the high-end probably makes him fairly popular on FD. Aldridge has yet to make his way back into the lineup, and DDR leads the Spurs in assist rate, usage, and FPPM without LMA on the court. In fact, his 26.8% usage gets boosted by 3% without Aldridge and this is a spot for him to take advantage of. He drives at a top-five rate in basketball and the Hornets are 29th in paint points allowed. Even though DeRozan passes a lot from his drives, this is a spot for him to be aggressive towards the rim and I’m in on FD.
Gary Trent ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD) – One way to get some Portland run back if you play Luka at a very reasonable price is Trent. His price has dropped under the $6,000 threshold on both sites, which is very interesting. Will he run out there and put up a ton of stats? Nope. What he will do is chuck, especially from deep. Dallas allows a 41.7% three-point frequency and is bottom eight in attempts allowed per game. That is right in Trent’s wheelhouse, as he sits at 162 attempts on the year. That’s with being a backup for much of the season. Don’t be shocked to see him shoot at least 10 triples and this is an elite game environment.
Grayson Allen ($4,300 DK/$4,900 FD) – My path on FD is likely going one of two ways. The first is DDR and one of Trent or Grayson. The other is using Terrence Ross and whoever fits with the build elsewhere. Ross has been taking 20 shots the past couple of nights and is a vital part of Orlando’s offense if they are short again. He’s an elite play in that scenario.
Back to Allen, the Grizzlies are short players just like last game. The former Duke Blue Devil played almost 35 minutes and put up over 30 fantasy points on admittedly great three-point shooting, 60% from deep. That was against the Lakers, who are top five in defensive rating and bottom five in pace. Now Allen gets the Kings, who are the polar opposite of the Lakers. This game should run and gun and Allen is very cheap on both sites.
Honorable Mention – Fred VanVleet, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,200 DK/$10,500 FD) – For those of you that are new, I’m not always that big into narratives unless it’s something very personal to the player. It appears that LeBron has gone full Michael Jordan meme about not winning MVP last season.
The man is on a mission right now and it’s to prove he’s still the best in the league, whether Anthony Davis is in or not. In the last game against Denver, Bron went for a triple-double and AD played that game. Now Will Barton is out for the Nuggets, which is bad news bears for Denver. That likely forces Michael Porter to play more minutes and LeBron is going to crush his “defense”. Now, I will likely just spend up to Luka but there is a world we can play both with Magic players, and maybe that’s what ends up happening tonight.
Kyle Anderson ($6,300 DK/$5,900 FD) – Since I’m not very likely to play Ja against the Kings, I may as well look at getting some other pieces. Anderson is never going to bowl you over, but as a player who can flirt with 30 fantasy points on six real points, we can give him a strong look on FD. The price is too rich for me on DK but the elite pace-up spot stands out for a guy like Slo-Mo. He played 30 minutes last game and will again tonight. With a 1.10 FPPM on the fourth-highest usage on the team, he can rack up the stats in a track meet.
Kenrich Williams ($5,400 DK/$5,500 FD) – Williams might be my favorite Thunder player since the price really doesn’t match the upside. He’s had the ball in his hands a ton more lately, and it’s showed. He flirted with a low-end triple-double last game and dished out nine dimes. He’s rocking a 0.85 FPPM with the Thunder down so many key players and that’s just on a 14.5% usage rate. He only shot 3-8 from the field and with the minutes he’s playing, he’s too good of a bargain still. Watch for his PRA on the sportsbook too. The last game it was 16.5 and I’m interested in what it is tonight.
Honorable Mention – Pascal Siakam, Brandon Ingram, Jerami Grant, Khris Middleton, James Ennis (if active)
Power Forward
Zion Williamson ($8,100 DK/$8,300 FD) – At first glance, this position looks rough as usual on FD. I don’t even like Zion that much, but I feel comfortable with the baseline that he’ll bring me. Giannis is a dynamite play, but I’m not sure if he’ll fit with my builds. Anthony Davis has been the Robin to LeBron’s Batman so I’m looking towards the second-year Pelican here. Detroit is average in paint points allowed and Zion is ninth in that category. The Pistons also don’t have much to offer resistance to Zion and whatever else he wants to do. I think we can at least pencil him for 24 points or more, which is more than I can say about others in this range.
Miles Bridges ($5,100 DK/$5,400 FD) – Bridges is likely to draw some chalk on FD at least, and it’s hard to argue. The high-end is not the most attractive past Giannis and Bridges should play heavy minutes since P.J. Washington likely won’t play due to health protocols. Bridges has played at least 27 minutes his past four games and has racked up four double-doubles in that span. He has good chemistry with LaMelo and is good for a highlight dunk almost every game out, but we love the minutes and the dub-dub upside.
Nemanja Bjelica ($3,600 DK/$5,000 FD) – If we get word that Marvin Bagley is out again, Bjelica is going to be stone chalk on DK at under $4,000. He should be too, after logging 28 minutes and a massive 35 DK points last time out. I need to be VERY VERY CLEAR HERE. If Bagley is in, you cannot play Bjelica for ANY REASON. He did not play since January 9th before the last game. You will likely get a zero if he doesn’t start. With Bagley off the court, Bejlica has a 1.00 FPPM. Look for an update if needed in the Discord throughout the day.
Honorable Mention – Giannis, Darius Bazley
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($9,800 DK/$9,900 FD) – The fact he’s not into five digits on either site is crazy to me. He’s hovering between a 1.50 and 1.60 FPPM without his teammates around and is the entire offense. He’s played 41, 38, and 34 minutes the past three with at least 21 shots every single night. Deandre Ayton is still a very poor defender and I’m more or less all in on Vuc if the Magic are still beyond thin.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400 DK/$7,100 FD) – It’s hard not to lock in Vuc across the board pending the Magic status. However, one reason I may look off him is My Name Is Jonas, a.k.a. JoVal. He’s fifth in paint touches per game and sixth in rebounding chances per game, making him a very interesting option. Sacramento is 26th in paint points allowed and 25th in rebounding. To make matters worse for the Kings, JoVal is right about 20th in points per possession as the pick and roll roll man. The Kings are bottom five in that metric. Memphis actually sits last, but missing Valanciunas hurt their rating quite a bit.
Enes Kanter ($7,200 DK/$6,600 FD) – I really wish I had two center spots on FD because Kanter is so cheap there. Dallas gets smacked around on the interior, in large part because of Porzingis. He’s a lumbering version of himself on both ends of the floor and hasn’t hit his stride after injury. To wit, Dallas sits 29th in paint points allowed and 22nd in rebounds allowed in the paint. Kanter is 12th in paint points on the season and fifth in rebounding chances. This is a dynamite spot, but I’m not sure I can get there on DK. Even on FD, unless he’s projected to be overwhelmingly owned, Kanter may be best served in GPP.
Honorable Mention – Al Horford, Jakob Poeltl
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/14 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
