Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8
We’re still almost 24 hours from the slate but we already have a massive question mark that is a slate-changer. Typically, Russell Westbrook sits on a back to back for the Wizards. However, coach Scott Brooks says he might be available tonight against the Bulls. If he’s out, we all know to lock in Bradley Beal. It’s very interesting to see if Westbrook plays and it’s a huge puzzle piece. We’ll talk about this scenario and many others in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8 to find the paths to green screens once again!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8 Injury Report
Rockets – Christian Wood (O)
Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (Q)
Wizards – Russell Westbrook (Q)
Bulls – Lauri Markkanen (D), Otto Porter, Wendell Carter (O)
Raptors – OG Anunoby (O)
Grizzlies – Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson, De’Anthony Melton (O)
Grizzlies – KAT (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q)
Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O), Eric Paschall (Q)
Spurs – LaMarcus Aldridge (O), Lonnie Walker (O)
Cavaliers – Larry Nance (O)
Suns – Jae Crowder, Cameron Payne, Abdel Nader (Q)
Nuggets – Jamal Murray (Q), PJ Dozier, Gary Harris (O)
Thunder – Theo Maledon, Mike Muscala, George Hill, Isaiah Roby (O)
*Note* I’m just going to address the Thunder situation here. They will be down to about 7-8 players that are typically in the rotation, so there is value to be had here. I understand the matchup is horrific, but the minutes will be there regardless. The issue right now is we have virtually no sample with these players out. With all these guys off, Kenrich Williams has the most minutes…at 22. I would suspect we’ll need to play 2-3 Thunder tonight. The projected ownership will guide me but we’ll be looking at Horford, Diallo, Dort, Williams and maybe SGA. I tend to doubt SGA though since he’s not a value. Look for an update during the day.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8 Positions
Point Guard
Jrue Holiday ($7,700 DK/$8,200 FD) – This game is going to be a blast and we should want some type of exposure to it. Holiday could be an interesting way to get it. Of course, Steph and Luka can be played but they are both at a high premium after they went off Saturday. Holiday leads the league in steals, and Denver is about mid-pack in turnovers per game. He’s also sporting a 1.09 FPPM on just a 19.8% usage rate and is doing plenty across the box score. Holiday is only averaging 16.4 points, but almost five boards and over five dimes per game. Milwaukee is top 10 in pace and Denver is bottom 10 in defensive rating. If you can’t afford the big-name studs, take a look at Holiday.
John Wall ($7,400 DK/$7,400 FD) – Wall played 32 minutes last game out for the first time since his injury, and that has my attention. Across 139 minutes with Christian Wood off the floor, Wall is leading the team with a monster 36.4% usage and his 1.25 FPPM is behind on DeMarcus Cousins. Since the James Harden trade, Houston leads the league in pace and Charlotte is 13th. They are on a back to back and I wouldn’t think the defense will improve. I was honestly surprised at Wall looks like with Wood off, and if he’s playing 32-34 minutes this is a dynamite spot.
The value play will need to be decided during the day, and we have some candidates. If Westbrook plays, I love him and the DK price point is just disrespectful. The flip side is if he sits, Ish Smith enters the fray as a starter. Jamal Murray of the Nuggets missed Sunday and is questionable. My hunch would say he plays this one, but Monte Morris is going to play 32+ minutes if he doesn’t. Denver is a little short on guards. Lastly, I want to pick Ghost’s brain and the model on Tomas Satoransky. He’s started to play more minutes, and overlapping with Coby White. I’m not 100% if we can trust him, but if we can he’s so cheap.
Honorable Mention – Terry Rozier, Derrick White if we get no value
Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine ($8,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – Alright, now we can talk about one of my favorite games on the slate. On FD, I feel like he’s a total lock. These are the top three in pace, bottom four in points allowed, and bottom six in defensive ratings. In the scenario the Bulls can be facing with missing bodies (120 minutes), LaVine has a massive 36.4% usage rate and a 1.53 FPPM. We’re putting that against a bottom-five defense in basketball? In a game that should be played at warp speed?? Just give me all of him. On DK, the LaVine/Bradley Beal and potentially Westbrook stack would still leave you $4,700. I feel like this or the Denver game is the Brian Tulloch special on Monday, not to steal his thunder. Beal at $9,000 on DK is in play regardless of Westbrook’s status. FD I would only consider him if Westy is out, and even then let’s just play LaVine in cash for $2,000 less.
DeMar DeRozan ($7,700 DK/$8,100 FD) – I think we could see a big gap in projected ownership depending on which site you play. On FD, the price feels just a hair high but on DK, he’s still under $8,000. Look, I don’t like playing DDR. I’ll be honest about that and in GPP, I’m almost always going to fade him. Even I have to admit that this spot is incredible. The Warriors play so fast and he’s going to have so many chances to produce. With Draymond having to play center, he’s not going to be man up to him very often I don’t think. We do have to point out that DDR is fourth in drives per game at 19.2 per game but he has the third-most passes from drives. Regardless, the 28.5% usage is 4.9% higher without LMA and he’s probably going to be somewhat popular.
Anthony Edwards ($5,800 FD) – This is a FD only play because we need two. This position is tough at first glance for that site. They moved Diallo to PG, which does NOT help. Maybe we’ll get some value during the day that we like. If not, Edwards is likely to be my solution if I don’t spend up on both spots. There is still some inconsistency, which is not really a cash game prototype. The minutes are still trending up and seemingly have settled in the 30-32 minute range. The shot hasn’t helped him yet with KAT off the floor at a 47.6% true shooting rate. The 26% usage looks great as it is, and it jumps up to 30% if D’Angelo Russell happens to sit.
Honorable Mention – D’Lo (if active), Norman Powell
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,500 DK/$10,800 FD) – I’m not in love with the price on the surface, but let’s talk about this. First, I think there’s a legitimate chance Anthony Davis actually does sit. The Thunder are super thin, and this game is a 13 point spread early. If AD sits, the Los Angeles LeBron’s will likely still blow them out. However, we’d have a much higher chance of Bron being the focal point of blowing the Thunder out of the gym. With Davis off the floor, he’s got a 34.3% usage and a 1.47 FPPM. I tend to think that when LeBron criticizes the league for the All-Star game, he’s looking to out his best game on the floor. As a game theory, it makes some sense to play a Laker with multiple Thunder players for the late-night hammer as well.
Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,500 DK/$5,300 FD) – If you don’t want to wade into playing Dray with his price bump, JTA may well be the solution. Much like Green, JAT only scored two real points last game but still went over 20 fantasy points. It’s tough to overlook players like that while they remain super cheap. The metrics aren’t all that great with a FPPM under 0.80 but he’s now played 33, 39, and 26 minutes since Kevan Looney was hurt on the 2nd. JTA is just a guy that smoothly fits into any lineup, and with the Spurs playing at a top 10 pace as well, has the opportunity to fall into stats.
Denzel Valentine ($4,800 DK/$4,500 FD) – The Bulls guard is only SG eligible on DK but man does he look nice on both sites. He’s gone from 20, 20, and 37 minutes the past three games as the Bulls have gotten thinner through the ranks. Valentine has some scoring touch and sports a 1.04 FPPM in the scenario the Bulls find themselves in. I would suspect the model likes him again, and I will just say this – Wizards and warp speed ahead!
Honorable Mention – Khris Middleton, Michael Porter (if Murray is out), Will Barton (gross, honestly)
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 DK/$11,300 FD) – Giannis is in quite the spot here. Firstly, this is the marquee game of the night as far as real basketball. I can’t wait to watch it. Who really is going to try and guard greek tonight? Old Man Paul Millsap? Sure, good luck with that. Another interesting factor is Giannis is third in free throws attempted per game. We know that as much as I love Nikola Jokic, he can run into foul trouble here and there. It doesn’t always happen, but it can. If the Bucks can get Jokic off the floor, Giannis might go absolutely hog wild. I’m not loving the idea of paying all the way up with so many good plays in the Washington game, but I may do it on FD.
Patrick Williams ($5,100 DK/$4,500 FD) – The rookie is a massive bargain on FD and still very fairly priced on DK. We were on him last game, and he paid off in spades. The metrics aren’t super special with a 21% usage and a 0.99 FPPM. Still, the minutes are what makes him a solid play since he’s played 33, 33 and 32 minutes the past three games. He recorded his first career double-double last game and that was against the Magic. The Wizards are a much better matchup and when a player is this cheap for 32 minutes against the Wizards, I’m in.
We’re going to be looking for clarity in this position as well. For instance, if Davis sits for the Lakers, we’re going to look for Kyle Kuzma in a big way. He should draw the start and would be hard to overlook at that point. Maybe we could finally look at Chris Boucher in cash, as he’s played 32 and 26 minutes the past two games. Let’s see how the day unfolds and we’ll update it as we go.
Center
Nikola Jokic ($11,100 DK/$11,600 FD) – I don’t see the reason to pay up if Jamal Murray plays, but my goodness if he doesn’t….Joker is the whole show (to politely paraphrase Rob Van Dam from ECW). With Murray off the floor, Jokic has a 35.1% usage and a 1.72 FPPM. Taking it one step further and knocking off Gary Harris and PJ Dozier is even scarier. It’s a grain of salt type thing as the sample is about 57 minutes, but Joker is at a 40% usage and a 2.05 FPPM. Brook Lopez is a poor rebounder for a center, and we get Joker in pace up spot with the Bucks sitting top 10. If Murray is out, this isn’t just chasing the 88 DK Joker just posted yesterday. He could be my favorite play for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8, but we’ll see.
DeMarcus Cousins ($7,100 DK/$6,000 FD) – On FD, Boogie seems like the smash play at a ridiculous price point. When Wood plays, he has almost seven paint touches per game and Cousins will likely stick somewhat close to that. The Hornets are also just 16th in rebounding and like I mentioned earlier, a 1.33 FPPM is excellent at this price point. With the Hornets being 29th in pant points allowed, this is just too good of a spot. I’m not as locked in on DK, but certainly won’t tell you it’s a terrible play there either.
Jakob Poeltl ($5,900 DK/$5,800 FD) – This is really a glorious spot for Poeltl. He only put up 18 DK last game but that was without hitting a shot. He legit went 0-6 from the field. I will grant that Draymond Green has been playing some inspired basketball, but Golden State is still 23rd in rebounding and 19th in paint points allowed. All Poeltl does is sit in the paint, with 7.4 touches as a mostly backup player. When we target a limited backup like Poeltl, we have to pick the spot carefully. Even with Green lurking, this seems like the spot to do it.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
