Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1
We’re back with a big 10 game slate tonight and that is a lot of games to go over. We’ll have plenty of options to choose from and quite a bit of information to process. We have one of the biggest names in basketball in a smash spot and coming into this one in top form. Let’s figure out who we’re talking about and plenty more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 and figure out where we’re heading!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 Injury Report
Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O), Trae Young (Q)
Hornets – Terry Rozier (Q)
Heat – Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic (Q)
Wolves – KAT (O), Naz Reid (Q)
Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Derrick Jones Jr. (O)
Pelicans – Steven Adams (Q)
Thunder – George Hill (O)
Suns – Devin Booker (Q)
Grizzlies – Jonas Valanciunas, Jaren Jackson (O)
Nuggets – Gary Harris (Q)
NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 Positions
Point Guard
De’Aaron Fox ($8,300 DK/$8,200 FD) – I don’t see it being a slate to spend all the way up on point guard as of now. The best option would be Damian Lillard, who is perfectly fine but not my highest priority. Fox is a player that jumps off the page. Sacramento plays at the 11th fastest pace in the league and New Orleans has been playing a lot faster lately, sixth over the past three weeks. This is the perfect spot for Fox to excel, since the Pelicans and Kings are bottom three in defensive rating over that same three-week time period. On the season, Fox has a usage rate over 30% and has a fantastic outlook in a shootout tonight.
Ja Morant ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD) – Folks reading might not be too excited with this pick after Ja only put up 37 DK last game. Here’s the catch – he only played 28 minutes. The Grizzlies were a little careful with their franchise cornerstone but now that he’s got a game under him, look out. We like Morant again tonight for all the same reason as last time. The Spurs are quietly playing at a much faster pace than is traditional, and they’ve taken a step back defensively as well. Morant should not be under $8,000 on either site.
LaMelo Ball ($6,500 DK/$6,300 FD) – I’m only paying this price if Terry Rozier is out. Fortunately, both sites did jump him after his monster game but word of caution – he was on pace for 24 minutes at halftime. Rozier left after that and Ball played 19 minutes out of 24 in the second half. Ball shines in the stats without Rozier on the floor with a 23.8% usage and a 1.27 FPPM. I certainly don’t question the talent, just the minutes when the Hornets are healthy. If they’re not tonight, I don’t see how we can skip Melo.
Theo Maledon ($4,300 DK/$4,300 FD) – It’s no longer DialloZSN as Maledon is the man to turn to when George Hill is out. The past two games he’s posted 30 and 33 minutes, which is far too much to pass at this price. Maledon only has a 0.76 FPPM with Hill off the floor, but the minutes makes up for the lackluster ratio. The Rockets have climbed to the top in pace over the past few weeks, and that’s a great spot to target a cheap starter. We shouldn’t expect 6-6 from three again, but even 22-26 fantasy points makes it well worth the play.
Honorable Mention – Chris Paul, Dame, Lonzo Ball/Eric Bledsoe
Shooting Guard
Victor Oladipo ($8,000 DK/$8,200 FD) – Talk about efficiency, Dipo is coming off a 40 point game where he only played 25 minutes. He’s been playing 32+ with the Rockets so I’m not particularly worried. I mentioned earlier just how fast the Rockets are playing and since Dipo has been there, his usage rate is 30.7% and the FPPM is 1.22. He is probably priced to the ceiling, but that’s fine in cash games. Especially on FD, the high end of the position is a little sketchy.
Gary Trent Jr. ($5,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – I normally hate scoring dependent player but the Blazers just aren’t letting Trent off the floor right now. The past three games he’s logged 41, 38 and 37 minutes on the floor. Here’s the one aspect that I really do like for Trent – the three ball. He’s hoisted a ridiculous 32 over those three games. That’s a nice thing to have in your pocket when you face the Milwaukee Bucks. They rank seventh in frequency allowed and are suddenly giving up the third-highest percent from behind the arc. This is a perfect spot to use a scoring-heavy player like Trent with both teams in the top half of the league in pace.
Tyrese Haliburton ($5,200 DK/$5,400 FD) – I always like to target players in the high pace games, and it’s a bonus when neither team can play defense. The rookie is always a prime cash candidate at this salary. One of the reasons is he fills the stat sheet all the way across. Look at the last four games – he’s totaled 43 real points but has been at 27 FD points in three of four. The assist rate is 27.3%, second on the team to only Fox. The minutes have been key as he’s logged at least 30 in the past four games, and is line to do it again tonight.
Cam Reddish ($4,900 DK/$4,600 FD) – There’s not a lot to love with the matchup against the Lakers, but there is opportunity. Reddish is going to be on the floor a ton, logging 35 and 32 minutes the past two games. De’Andre Hunter is out for this game, and the Hawks continue to be without Bogdan Bogdanovic. With those two off the floor, Reddish boasts a 24.1% usage and a 1.03 FPPM in over 100 minutes. At this price (especially on FD), we have to take a look.
Honorable Mention – Possibly Tyler Herro/Kendrick Nunn, SGA
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram ($8,200 DK/$8,000 FD) – We’ve already talked about two Kings so it stands to reason that we should talk about some Pelicans. Ingram stands out for sure on both sites with a reasonable price tag and an elite game environment. BI has a 28% usage rate and he and Zion Williamson are neck and neck at about a 1.15 FPPM. This game is one of two that are over 235 at the moment and it’s likely to stay there. The difference between this game and the Blazers game is this one is a 3.5 point spread. Anytime we can get Ingram running back and forth, I’m interested.
R.J. Barrett ($6,700 DK/$6,700 FD) – The Knicks will be on their third game in four days but I’m not sure that matters to the coaching staff. Barrett actually only played 30 minutes yesterday, which must feel like a nice break. The second-year pro has his true shooting rate over 50% for the first time all year and still has a 23.6% usage rate. We always like going after the Bulls since they play so fast and it’s a bit time pace up spot for Barrett. He and Julius Randle are tied for fifth in minutes this season and he seems like a lock for about 30-35 fantasy points again tonight.
Kyle Anderson ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD) – The state of SF is really not great tonight. You could buy into the Jerami Grant Revenge Tour in Denver, but is it really revenge when you got paid what Grant did? Maybe, but the form has been poor lately. Slo-Mo checks in for me as a safe-ish option with not a ton of upside, but some solid floor. He’s really not too shabby from the statistical department with JoVal off the floor. Anderson sports a 21.6% usage and a 1.12 FPPM, second-best after Ja. Even in just 20 minutes last time out, he managed 30 FD points. He’s not been below 20 all year and eight of 12 games have been over 25. That’s good enough at this tag.
Honorable Mention – Khris Middleton, Grant, LeBron
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,600 FD) – I said last game that Greek was going to go off. Granted, that’s not a big leap of faith but he hasn’t had the same amount of ceiling games this year that we’re accustomed to. After 72 DK points, 39 minutes and one rebound short of a massive triple-double, I’ll say again – Giannis is going to go absolutely HAM SANDWICH in this game. They will spend their night throwing Robert Covington and Carmelo Anthony at him. El. Ol. El. When Greek gets to the paint (which will be whenever he pleases), Enes Kanter is waiting there for him. I hope Dame and company can hit enough three’s to keep this one close because I think we get another 65+ from Giannis tonight.
Julius Randle ($9,200 DK/$8,800 FD) – Randle got back on track last game and gets a fantastic spot tonight. We always target the Chicago front court and tonight it’s the same song and dance. The two teams are polar opposites in pace, which will help Randle grab some extra opportunities. I mean, this man is 12th in touches in the NBA. He’s got more per game than Steph Curry, Bradley Beal, Joel Embiid and Donovan Mitchell to name a few. His 1.26 FPPM is easily the best on the team and it’s going to shine through tonight.
Robert Covington ($5,000 DK/$4,900 FD) – I’m likely only on him on FD, since the steals and blocks count for more. RoCo is 13th in the league in steals per game and he’s going to play a bunch of minutes here. He played 34 last time out and it will be the same again this time around. The pace up spot helps him out a little and they’re going to need his presence on defense as much as he possibly can. This isn’t much more than the Blazers are just down so many bodies and the pace should be high with a cheap price for RoCo.
Honorable Mention – Christian Wood, Zion (nobody is stopping him in the paint), Xavier Tillman
Center
Deandre Ayton ($8,000 DK/$8,300 FD) – Kristaps Porzingis will play for Dallas tonight, but that doesn’t scare me off Ayton. If Booker plays, I’d not be near as willing to go here. Only five center eligible players log more minutes than Ayton, which helps him a lot. Dallas is also a great matchup, sitting dead last in paint points allowed and Ayton just tagged them for a massive double-double. With Booker off the floor, Ayton has seen his usage jump by 2% to a 21.6%. With Dallas just 28th in rebounding, Ayton has a good shot to hit a big double-double again tonight.
Cody Zeller ($5,300 DK/$5,200 FD) – The past three games have been rock solid to excellent for Zeller from a fantasy perspective. He’s hit 37 DK twice and 24 once, which is a nice mix. 37 would be a 7x return while the 24.5 wouldn’t totally cripple you at this price. The Heat are actually dead last in rebounding on the year, and Zeller has snagged 35 in the past three contests. If they run him another 34 minutes like they did last game, he could be flirting with 40 DK yet again. I would expect him to match Bam Adebayo quite a bit so we should expect some good run.
Jaxson Hayes ($4,000 DK/$3,600 FD) – This is only if Steven Adams is out, and nothing else. If the Big Kiwi misses, the field is going to turn to Jaxson Hayes. An imperfect player, there’s still flashes in his game through limited minutes in his career. He’s got a 0.82 FPPM on just a 12.6% usage rate and if Adams is out, that’s 30 minutes opened up in the rotation. The Kings are 26th in rebounding and 18th in paint points allowed, the right spot to target the young man. Let’s make sure the day unfolds like we need it to but he could be the salary saver tonight.
Honorable Mention – Joker, Clint Capela
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