Adam Strangis NBA Thursday 1/21 Core Four
We only have three games tonight, so the article is condensed down again. For a three game slate, we have some serious star power and no clear pathway to value yet. That’s going to make things difficult as we stand, but we all know that the NBA changes in a hurry. Let’s get down to business and figure out who to prioritize on this star-studded NBA Thursday 1/21 Core Four!
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500 DK/$11,300 FD) – We just talked on Tuesday about the need for raw points on this slate. Maybe Giannis won’t finish with a ceiling game of 70 DK points and have the flame emoji. He does average the most fantasy points on the slate and is in the premier game of the night. The 34% usage rate and 1.61 FPPM leads the slate as well, and sometimes not much else matter but that. The matchup against LA didn’t hurt him that badly last year, as he recorded at least 57 DK in both games.
Steph Curry ($9,600 DK/$9,300 FD) – On a slate with LeBron, Anthony Davis and Curry it can be difficult to pick out of the three. To me, Curry is the choice. Since I’m only playing GPP tonight, I’ll take the chance Chef Curry cooks me a 70 burger tonight. He’s shown more ceiling than the Lakers duo is they seem mostly content to just get through the season. The Brian Tulloch Narrative will be these two teams are going to throw down (and more on that in a minute). Brian may be right, but if you’re not stacking the Bucks game Curry is the man for me. The Knicks sit fifth in frequency of three point attempts given up. Seems like a bad plan for perhaps the best marksman the NBA has ever seen. On top of that, the Knicks have nobody that can even pretend to guard him.
Immanuel Quickley ($4,100 DK/$4,500 FD) – I could just tell you about how the rookie is quoted as saying Curry was one of his favorite players coming up. I could tell you how his past four games he’s posted 19, 23, 17 and 11 real points. This things are true but what catches my eye is that over that time period of those four games, Quickley has a 33.9% usage rate. I understand the minutes are volatile because he only played 19 last game. Having said that, this is the kind of value we need on the slate. He’s very cheap and he’s shown 7-8x ability. Quickley seems ready to go and show Curry what he’s about, and I’m here for it.
Jordan Clarkson ($6,100 DK/$6,300 FD) – I got freaked out with Joe Ingles back but it looks like I underestimated Clarkson. Last season, he had a 26% usage rate but just a 0.95 FPPM with a 9.8% assist rate. This year the assist rate is up to just under 13% and the FPPM went to 1.18. His true shooting rate is a touch high, but the Jazz have him staggered when Donovan Mitchell is off the floor. Utah is also taking the third-most triples per game and Clarkson is one of the main engines of the offense this season. His price went down on DK, which we can take advantage of.
Bonus Picks and Pivots
Brian is off in the real world today with work, so I’m going to sub a little bit for Picks and Pivots. I mean, it’s pick a game, find a couple scrubs and hit the gas pedal right? Just kidding bud, all love. Even though he mentioned who he liked, I could have seen this one coming a mile away. The spread in this particular game is just one point and the O/U is 228.5, highest on the slate. Brian is attacking the Lakers/Bucks matchup and here’s the crazy part – you can actually have a shot to fit Giannis, LeBron and AD.
You can plug in that big three and a player like Quickley and still have $4,200 per player left on DK. I bet Brian will harp that the Bucks are looking to get back in the win column after losing a heartbreaker to the Nets.. He’ll also point out how low the price is on the Lakers studs, and how they never should be under $9,500 each. It just feels like these two can turn on the jets at any point. Realistically, the 1.45 FPPM for LeBron and 1.35 FPPM for AD is nothing to be upset about. They split the usage with Bron sitting at 32% and Davis at 25%. These are the games that LeBron still gets up for, and Brook Lopez won’t be able to do much to help down low on Davis.
Now we need to see who else we can run with the main stack and we need some cheap guys. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is interesting. He’s not playing a ton of minutes but he’s shooting the three ball at a ridiculous 53.7% rate. With the Bucks allowing the ninth-highest field goal percentage from deep, this is a good spot for a game of around 27 DK like KCP had against Houston just four games ago.
Perhaps we could also look at Bobby Portis in this game, as he’s getting about 22-24 minutes a night. The bench for the Bucks is not near what it used to be and it’s actually Portis who has the third-highest FPPM on the team, not Jrue Holiday. Both teams are in the top 20 in pace and this should be a great contest. If we take some flyers on these fringe players and the studs hit, we could be off and running.
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