NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/7

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/7

For just a five game slate, we have some serious star power on our hands. As things stand (because…NBA), we have five players on DK over $9,500 and five that are at least $10,000 on FanDuel. That’s going to make for some interesting choices and that’s before we even get value options that always crop up the day of the slate. Let’s get to breaking everything down and figuring out who exactly is worth their price tag tonight for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/7!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Kyrie Irving ($9,600 DK/$10,000 FD) – Kyrie will be without Kevin Durant for a little while longer, and his price really isn’t high enough on DK at least. Maybe on FD you can argue, but even then it’s hard not to love Kyrie. He only played about 30 minutes last game due to blowout but put up 51.5 DK points. Sure, he was on fire from deep going 5-7 from beyond the arc but this Sixers team just got roasted for 60 real points courtesy of Bradley Beal. On a back to back, their defense (mostly Ben Simmons) doesn’t worry me in the least. There’s only been a small 45 minute sample, but Kyrie is a 1.74 FPPM player with KD and Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor this season.

Damian Lillard ($9,300 DK/$9,200 FD) – About the only reason in my eyes that you argue not playing Kyrie on FD is A. you’re spending on Luka Doncic or B. Lillard’s price is still too good to pass up. You can play Doncic in any game without Kristaps Porzingis, and I won’t tell you it’s a mistake. It’s hard to get past the price tag on Dame in this spot though. The T-Wolves play at the ninth-fastest pace with the third-most real points given up. On top of that, they are ninth-worst in three point field goal percentage allowed. Dame is still shooting a little worse than his career rate outside the arc at 35%, while he shot 40% last season. He remains simply too cheap.

Jalen Brunson ($3,300 DK/$4,200 FD) – Let’s be perfectly clear – Brunson is NOT FOR SURE IN PLAY FOR CASH. Trey Burke has been ruled out already, so the second unit will need to pick up those minutes. Brunson would certainly be a candidate and very well may be a core piece by the time it’s said and done. Burke has been playing about 17 minutes a night, so if Brunson is picking that up he could flirt with 25-28 minutes. Even with Luka healthy, we wouldn’t need much at his price. This number is skewed a bit since Luka missed a game, but without Burke on the floor Brunson has a 22.6% usage and a 1.07 FPPM. Even a portion of that would work. We just need to get a read on the situation tomorrow.

Honorable Mention – Luka, and if we can play Luka and the other stud in this game, I’m going to be excited.

Shooting Guard

D’Angelo Russell ($7,700 DK/$7,900 FD) – Whether you play Dame and want a run back, or you just want a cheaper piece of this game, D-Lo is well in play. There’s a good chance this will be the highest O/U of the night (as it is while I’m writing), and both teams are in the top half of pace. Portland is not much better than Minnesota on defense, at 25th in real points allowed. The game environment is pristine, and D-Lo is under $8,000 on both sites. The FPPM doesn’t look super impressive at 1.15 without Karl Anthony-Towns on the floor, but the usage is over 30% and the assist rate is 32.4%. If the Wolves have hopes on staying in this game, Russell will have to be at the forefront.

Caris LeVert ($6,800 DK/$6,600 FD) – LeVert only had a solid, if not great game last time and that’s to our advantage tonight. The Nets have kept him on the bench and that’s exactly what we want. I know we’ve harped on this on streams and discord, but LeVert off the bench is the most valuable he can be. Off he bench, he has a 37.3% usage rate and a 1.45 FPPM with KD and Dinwiddie out. Oh by the way, that’s with a 46.3% true shooting rate and he’s at 52.1% through his career. There is still immense potential for LeVert at his price, and he’s especially valuable on FD in my eyes.

Seth Curry ($5,500 DK/$5,000 FD) – He seems to just make the cut for FD about every night because shooting guard is sort of a flawed position in general. Normally, I don’t want scorers that are not going to do much past real points. That is what Curry is, but SG is filled with guys like that at every price range. That’s also why I feel LeVert is such a strong play, since he brings the whole package to the table. I feel like Malik Beasley could be in this spot as well, but you’ll have to decide how much exposure you want to Minnesota. Anyways, Curry is what he’s been all year – a shooter the Sixers need for their offense and one that is getting plenty of minutes. Only once has Curry been in the 29 minute a night range he is this season. The scary part is his true shooting is an absurd 75.5%. He’s going to have some off nights, but at $5,000 you can still play him.

Honorable Mention – C.J. McCollum, Beasley

Small Forward

*Note* LeBron James is questionable, but expected to play. I do think there’s better spends in this salary range but LeBron is LeBron. I will say he hasn’t exactly flashed his known ceiling this year…yet.

Tobias Harris ($7,500 DK/$7,900 FD) – Harris was over $8,000 for a minute and that’s always my breaking point with him. Granted, he is still close to that threshold but he still makes the list here. He’s actually cheaper than Ben Simmons and they have what amounts to the same FPPM at 1.26 and Harris has the higher usage rate at 23.4%. The Sixers and Nets are both playing at a top-eight pace so far this year and Harris is at a thinner position on FD. He did play 41 minutes last night, which I don’t expect but the 30-32 minutes will work. Since he had his seven block/steal game, he’s yet to record another one of either so that would be a nice bonus.

Michael Porter Jr. ($7,100 DK/$6,700 FD) – He’s a better deal on FD, and that’s likely the only site that I would use him on. Do I love Porter as a cash play? I can’t honestly say yes, but I need two SF on FD. Since Porter didn’t have Covid and it was just protocols, we don’t have to worry too much about that end of things. He’s not that far away from the usage rate of Jamal Murray, just a 2% difference at 22.1% for Porter. He’s also second on the team behind Nikola Jokic in FPPM at 1.27. Porter can wind up in the doghouse, but he’s still one of the most talented players they have. Denver has started slowly, and Porter should get plenty of minutes back in the starting lineup.

Cedi Osman ($5,700 DK/$5,200 FD) – The Cavaliers are still very short-handed, missing Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Kevin Porter Jr. and Dante Exum at least. The leaves Cedi playing a ton of minutes, 33 and 38 in the past two. Even last night, he put up 25 DK points on 1-12 shooting and just four real points. The Grizzlies aren’t playing at the pace they did last year (tends to happen when you lose Jaren Jackson and Ja Morant) but the minutes still matter for Cedi. In the Cavs current form, Osman is the prototypical cash play that would easily surpass 35 DK points on a normal scoring night.

Honorable Mention – Keep an eye on Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot if he’s inserted back into a starter’s role.

Power Forward

Anthony Davis ($9,800 DK/$10,100 FD) – AD is about as safe as they come, especially at this position on this slate. On the surface, it looks like AD has been slightly down to start off the season. He’s only scoring 22 points, but when you look at the attempts from two and three point range, everything looks the same as last year. Actually, he’s shooting about 6% higher from deep than last year. So what’s the holdup on the real points?

Well, he’s only shooting 4.1 free throws a game. That’s down from the 8.5 he averaged last year by a lot. Perhaps the biggest piece to that puzzle is his attempts from within five feet of the basket. Last year, he shot 41.5% of his attempts within that range. This year, it’s only 24.7% of his attempts. There’s not likely a big reason for that, but when he starts to be a little more aggressive from where he’s shooting he’s going to have a massive game.

Robert Covington ($5,300 DK/$5,000 FD) – Covington is seemingly on the model every night lately, and this is they style of game we want him in. We’ve talked about the pace and he’s got chances all over the place to rack up secondary stats. Now, he does need those stats like steals, blocks and rebounds because he’s not a high usage player. That’s being kind with a rate under 11% but let’s face it – we need two and I tend to target games when we’re in this pickle of no “great options”.

Juancho Hernangomez ($4,400 DK/$4,200 FD) – Let’s call a spade a spade. This call is terrifying because Juancho came out of nowhere to play 34 minute, hit 10-14 shots and score 25 real points last game. I’m not here to tell you that he’s going to his 10x like last game (although the model loved him) but he doesn’t need to at this price. I’d really like to know he’s starting before throwing weight here, but I can’t imagine why he would get pulled out after last game.

Honorable Mention – JaVale McGee (possibly gets towards 20 minutes on a back to back, but let’s see how the day goes)

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,900 DK/$11,300 FD) – Joker is a cash play, but I’m not sure he has any ceiling left at this point. Ghost brought it up on the stream that Jokic is really getting up there in price, about the Giannis-level of pricing. Now he has Porter back on the floor too, which hurts the very top of his ceiling. Even with Porter, he does have a 1.65 FPPM and triple-double upside. I just worry about how much more he can possibly do here. I know the Mavericks don’t have a center to go with him, but Jokic is likely not the best GPP play ever tonight.

Joel Embiid ($9,500 DK/$9,800 FD) – Biid is still pretty cheap on both sites, and he can be a little frustrating to get right as far as ceiling. He smashed last night with 38 real points, and we always attack the Nets with centers. Embiid averages a little over six paint touches per game and Brooklyn is 20th in points allowed in the paint. Jarrett Allen and DeAndre Jordan are going to have their hands full all game long, and Biid is still not priced high enough.

Jusuf Nurkic ($6,200 DK/$6,200 FD) – The Wolves are the seventh-worst team in rebounding and the third-worst as far as allowing points in the paint. That sets up well for Nurkic, provided he plays the minutes. They’ve been hard to peg so far on a night to night basis, but he’s settled into about 25 per game. He’s coming off one of his best games of the season with a double-double and his second-highest minutes of the season. Nurkic is too talented to be this cheap closing in on 30 minutes.

Honorable Mention – None yet, but it will come. Nobody knew we could play DeMarcus Cousins last night until 15 minutes before lock.

DK Core

Drummond, Luka, LeVert, Bruce Brown

FD Core

Drummond, LeVert, Clarke, Cedi Osman

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!