Adam Strangis NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Saturday
For the first year ever, we have a whopping six plays games on the NFL slate this week? With the sites doing more for the single day contests, we’re gong to split ours up into Saturday and Sunday. All the information is still plenty workable for the six game slate but we have plenty to do for the NFL Game By Game Breakdown Wild Card Saturday!
Colts at Bills, O/U of 51 (Bills -6.5)
Colts
QB – Of the six quarterbacks on the slate, Philip Rivers is fifth-cheapest and that alone gets him on the map. Getting the game script right is important. If the Bills are consistently putting up points, Rivers could be a veritable bargain in catch-up mode. He needs the volume as he was just 20th in pDB at 0.43. Rivers ended up ninth in passing yards on the tenth-most attempts just out of volume alone. Buffalo ended the year 12th in DVOA against the pass and right in the middle of the pack in DK points per game with a 23:15 TD:INT ratio.
The other big question is do we really need the salary relief from Rivers? The DK pricing suggests possibly not. Only one running back is over $5,900 and only two receivers are over $6,900. I believe the only way you play Rivers is if you think the Bills roll. Even then, you are aiming for the Bills to score and Rivers to not finish with many fewer points than Josh Allen. I’m not convinced those two factors would work together.
RB – One of the best ways to keep Allen and the dynamic Bills offense off the field is to go right back to the well and saddle up Jonathan Taylor. The rookie played a career-high 82% of the snaps last week and had 31 touches. Really, it’s about time. Something clicked for JT in Week 11 because he’s been phenomenal since then. The workload has not been under 16 touches and the DK points have not been under 15.4, with three games above 22 DK.
Taylor gets a soft matchup on paper here as well. Buffalo was only 17th in DVOA against the run, gave up over 2,000 scrimmage yards to running backs and 14 rushing touchdowns (tied for sixth-most). The fear has to be the scoreboard tilting early. I don’t think that happens as I actually think Indy can pull the upset, but Nyheim Hines lurks. Even last week when the Colts had full control, Hines still had six receptions. If they chase, Hines is going to be a great play under $5,000 with his 14.4% target share. My train of thought is to load up on Taylor, but Hines could be a contrarian GPP play.
WR – Now comes the difficult question and it’s “which one of the Colts receivers has the big game this week”? They are all very cheap, as T.Y. Hilton is the most expensive at $5,000. He’s only seeing about 65% of the snaps for the past six weeks or so, but does have an interesting target share. He led the team with an 18.8% share and was the only player with an air yards share over 20% (31.8%). Hilton led in EZ targets, receptions and yards but tied in touchdowns with the next player. He’ll likely see Tre White when he’s on the field and White struggled statistically through the season. He allowed a 13.0 YPR, 1.90 pPR and a 94.5 passer rating. Those numbers have come down recently, so maybe he’s finding his form.
We’ve attacked the Bills slot corner a bunch this year and that matchup would fall on Zach Pascal. He plays the slot about 65% of the time this season and he’s been on the field at least 61% in every single game this year. His target share is only 13.3% on the year, but he’s seen 16 over the past three games. Pascal also led in RZ targets (13) and was second in EZ targets (eight) so the touchdown equity is real for someone this cheap in a good matchup. I will say Taron Johnson looks better stats-wise than I thought. He only allowed a 1.40 pP and a 59.3% catch rate. I still like Pascal at the price, but it was surprising to see Johnson’s stats look solid.
Lastly, Michael Pittman is in the fray as well. This trio can really be difficult to peg from week to week, and they can be frustrating. The game has such a sizable O/U that I don’t want to ignore it totally. Pittman is my last priority since Pascal is barely more expensive and Pittman does appear to be the third wheel. Levi Wallace came on towards the end of the year as well, getting his catch rate below 59%. Two of the past three weeks Pittman’s targets have not gone above three and he hasn’t see double-digit DK since Week 11. It’s not hard to correlate the third receiver getting less work while the lead back has been carrying the mail.
TE – If you forced me to take a tight end from this team, I would grudgingly pick Jack Doyle. Trey Burton has the highest target share on the seasons at 10.7% but Doyle has the same RZ targets at eight and EZ targets at four. Additionally, Doyle has trended towards playing more lately. In the past four weeks, he’s led the tight end room in snap rate and has 14 targets in that time span. Buffalo gave up the most receptions and second-most yards to tight ends this year, so the punt makes sense. I just wouldn’t expect a ton out of Doyle and if he scores, you’re off to the races.
D/ST – My initial reaction before opening the slate was “no” but they might just be too cheap. The Bucs defense will get attention but we can save $1,100 for the seventh ranked DVOA defense in Indy. They had 25 takeaways, fourth in the league and racked up 40 sacks on the second-lowest blitz rate of 17.1%. I’m not suggesting they shut out the Bills but 24-28 points, a turnover or two and a sack or two makes the price work. Is that really too much to ask from the Colts this week?
Cash – Taylor, Pascal, D/ST
GPP – Hines, Rivers, Hilton, Doyle
Bills
QB – Allen is the highest-priced option on the slate and I’m not sure I can argue with that. The dark horse MVP candidate (it’s Aaron Rodgers but that doesn’t diminish Allen) only played a half last week and put up 20.3 DK points. Allen silenced any doubters he had this year, finishing third in passing yards, fifth in touchdowns, second in points per game and fourth in pDB. His deep ball was a weapon at a 43.8% completion rate for 10th best and the clean completion rate was fifth at 78.3%.
One of the best assets Allen brings to the fantasy table is the touchdown equity. He scored 42 total, and finished second in RZ passing attempts and fourth in RZ rushing attempts. Very few quarterbacks are safer bets to find the end zone. Indy is a tough spot on paper at eighth in DVOA against the pass, but you can’t go wrong with Allen at all. The question at the high end is Allen or Tom Brady, which we’ll get to later on.
RB – One of the easiest reasons to point to the passing game and Allen in this one is because we’re not going to want to play the backfield. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary are splitting work and snaps almost equally down the middle. Moss is still my preferred target if going down that low. Prior to Week 17, he rattled off 12, 13 and 13 carries in the previous three games. Contrast that with 10, eight and seven for Singletary and Moss has the edge easily. Singletary does get slightly more receiving work with six receptions to two for Moss, but that’s not a factor we need to make decisions on. The Colts were ninth in DVOA against the run and allowed the third-fewest rush yards on the year. With Allen always a threat to punch in in from the red zone, these are not priority plays for me.
WR – The NFL’s leading receiver (Stefon Diggs) will have his hands full in this one with Xavier Rhodes and I’m not sure I care in the least. There is no denying Rhodes played as one of the best corners in football this year. He was targeted 73 times and finished in the top 20 in just about every metric we look like. He only allowed 38 receptions (16th), 52.1% catch rate allowed (sixth), a 73.9 passer rating (eighth) and a 1.40 pPT (11th). Diggs is just a different player. He led in receptions and yards on the season and is under $8,000. Rhodes is great but I legitimately think Diggs might be un-coverable. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will figure out ways to get the ball to Diggs without fail.
Cole Beasley seems iffy to play in this one and even if he does, John Brown has my attention. Rhodes is going to try and hold Diggs in check but that’s going to leave Brown in some favorable coverages. Brown had a 16.3% target share in his healthy games and a 12.4 aDOT, highest among this trio. If you haven’t read yet, picking on Colts corner Rock Ya-Sin is one of our main targets. Ya-Sin is at a 4.51 forty-yard dash while Brown is 4.34 and has the nickname of “Smoke”. Give me that Smoke.
If Beasley remains out, we can still consider Gabriel Davis as a punt. No player had more EZ targets than his 10 and he trailed only Diggs in RZ work at 10 as well. I do think we only go there if Beasley is out, but this is the first game so we’ll know in plenty of time. I would also prefer Davis than Pittman in this same game.
*Update* Beasley is questionable, but seems on track to play. I’m still in love with Brown though.
TE – If we’re going to the punt tier, you can make a small case for Dawson Knox. We can cast out the eight targets from last week with varied playing time, but he’s been more involved for a bit now. The last four games have seen him get 19 targets, which isn’t terrible at this price range. Knox was under a 10% share on the season and the matchup does him no favors. They were fifth-best in DK points per game and only gave up three scores all year. I prefer Doyle in this game, as weird as that sounds.
D/ST – I don’t think I can make a compelling case to play the highest-salaried defense here. For starters, the Colts only allowed Rivers to get sacked 19 times total. Secondly, the 15 giveaways were the third-fewest in the league. I do give the Bills credit for being a ball-hawking unit with the third-most turnovers forced and they racked up 38 sacks. They have the splash play ability, but the Colts don’t present a lot of opportunity to make it happen.
Cash – Allen, Diggs, Brown
GPP – Moss, D/ST, Knox
Rams at Seahawks, O/U of 42.5 (Seahawks -3)
Rams
QB – We’re going to need more clarity here. Jared Goff did get in a limited practice, but that’s it with a thumb injury so far. John Wolford would be the starter if Goff cannot go, and he was just serviceable in his start on Sunday. He was asked to throw 38 times and managed just 231 yards, to go with 56 yards rushing and one pick. With the Seattle defense coming around lately, this isn’t my favorite spot to attack no matter who is under center. It is the lowest O/U on the slate and Goff managed just a 0.40 pDB, 25th in the league. That’s not likely to hold up to the Brady’s or the Allen’s on this slate.
*Update* We still don’t know for sure who’s starting but I’m not interested regardless.
RB – Cam Akers is wildly too cheap and is likely to be chalk that I’m happy to eat on this slate. The box score from last week doesn’t look all that good but the touches certainly do at 25! If we’re getting 20+ touches at this salary we have to be attention and be interested. His last five games have been basically everything we want out of a workhorse back. Akers has played over 60% of the snaps in those games and he’s going to be the man in this backfield. The Rams finished as a top 10 team in rushing attempts on the season so you know Akers will get the touches. Seattle has been good to running backs with the ninth-ranked DVOA and the fourth-fewest yards. The catch is the faced the third-fewest attempts and the Rams won’t be that style of matchup. I’ll take those touches at this price all the time.
WR – We expect Cooper Kupp to be back in this game and I would lean towards him if playing a Rams receiver. The question is does he have good enough quarterback play to pay off his price, and that’s a good one. Last week, Robert Woods didn’t clear 7.6 DK points and that’s a bit frightening. We’ve talked about it all year that Woods and Kupp are basically identical at 130 targets from Woods and 125 for Kupp, with Kupp having one fewer game. The receptions are within two, the yards are within 38 and everything is just a mirror image. I lean Kupp at that point since he’s cheaper and should have the better matchup.
Woods gets Shaquill Griffin for the most point and Griffin has been the best corner for Seattle. Through 95 targets, Griffin has only allowed a 1.60 pPT and a 91.4 passer rating. Nothing about that is totally spectacular but Kupp still gets the easier spot just because he’s not on Griffin. Seattle has had issues in the secondary a lot this year, so the slot corner isn’t exactly set. The only way I’d be interested is if Goff is active.
TE – Tyler Higbee can drive me nuts. He has ability and there’s appeal there on paper, but the Rams just don’t really utilize him. He runs a route on just 56.7% of his snaps, which is 29th in the league. It’s difficult to get excited for him and he’s in no man’s land for pricing. It’s easier to just spend a little more or just a little less and punt. Three of his five touchdowns came in one game at the beginning of the season and he’s broken 10 DK (3x at this price) just three times all season.
D/ST – If Indy makes you uncomfortable, try and find $700 more for the Rams. The perception is it’s scary to play a defense against the Seattle offense but that’s not exactly the case. The Rams have combined for 19 DK in the previous two matchups on the year with 11 total sacks. Considering Seattle finished third in sacks given up, that makes total sense. The Rams forced 22 turnovers and wound up second in sacks with 53. It’s down to Seattle or Indy in my eyes.
Cash – Akers, D/ST
GPP – Kupp, Woods, Higbee
Seahawks
QB – I’m not sure I’ve ever felt less of a need to play a quarterback with 40 touchdown passes and over 4,200 yards but that’s Russell Wilson this week. Be it by design or opposing defenses figuring things out, Wilson hasn’t gone over 263 passing yards since Week 9 and he’s only thrown 12 touchdown passes in that time frame (eight games). Somehow, Russ is seventh in pDB, sixth in points per game, second in passing touchdowns and ninth in yardage. He does have the sixth-most RZ attempts on the season and is seventh in pressured completion rate at 47.6%. So much of that is front loaded that this is a concerning trend. With Allen only $900 more and Brady still sitting there, I think Russ takes a backseat on this slate.
RB – In the same train of thought as Akers, Chris Carson seems awfully cheap. The fact that he hasn’t had a massive game lately makes his price very reasonable but he’s been the horse, with at least 13 touches in every game for the past four weeks. Seattle wants to be more balanced and Carson is going to get touches again this week, and the salary probably doesn’t really match the workload. The biggest issue is this is not a good spot, as the Rams are third in DVOA against the run. In the past game against LA, Carson put up 10.9 DK without a score on 19 touches. I’ll take that chance at this salary that he finds the end zone this time around.
WR – I am very torn on what to do here with the Seattle receivers. Part of me says that the Rams (and Jalen Ramsey) won’t contain D.K. Metcalf all three games. The other side of that coin is Metcalf has really cooled off at the same time Russ had. Only once has he hit over 18 DK and three of those eight games have been under double-digits. Ramesy only allowed a 1.30 pPT and a 79.7 passer rating, both in the top 12 in the league. Additionally, Tyler Lockett and Metcalf have been a lot closer than they were. Lockett led in targets by one, they tied in EZ targets and Lockett had the reception lead as well. That would seem to say that Lockett is the play here, but that’s not exactly true either.
We want Lockett to hit 21 points for 3x here and his 16 game record this year says that is not all that likely. Only four times has he done it and when he does, he typically does it in nuclear fashion. Lockett has been massively boom or bust with seven games under 10 DK. He’ll probably face Troy Hill out of the slot an awful lot. Hill has been very good this year with a 1.40 pPT, 8.7 YPR (second-best) and just a 74.2 passer rating allowed.
TE – I wouldn’t play Jacob Hollister in this game as he’s not been a priority target in the offense even since Greg Olsen got hurt. He does not have a game over 10 DK other than once and the 9.9% target share over the past eight weeks is not encouraging.
D/ST – Seattle haș been playing so much better lately but they could be a little overlooked. That may not be the case if Goff isn’t playing but since Week 8, they haven’t been under three DK points. The 22 turnovers forced and 46 sacks turned into respectable numbers. The 285 yards passing allowed did finish 29th on the year, but they were over 350 towards the middle of the season. The pass defense has been towards the upper end lately, and there’s nothing wrong with playing them but I do prefer the Rams.
Cash – Carson, D/ST
GPP – Russ, Metcalf, Lockett
Buccaneers at Washington, O/U of 45 (Buccaneers -9)
Buccaneers
QB – To me, the decision on quarterback is between Allen and Tom Brady. I lean Allen if at all possible and think he’s going to be chalk. Don’t get me wrong, Brady beat up on some trash can pass defenses down the stretch when he went over 26 DK in every game in the last three weeks. The stats speak for themselves over the course of the season. Brady finished with 40 touchdowns, 10th in pDB at 0.53, ninth in points per game, third in passing yards and first in air yards per attempt. It’s almost like good receivers allow you to do more than dink and dunk passing.
Here’s the catch statistically and narrative-wise. The statistical catch is Brady has an Achilles heel (as much as a player of his caliber can) and has had it for a few years – pressure. Brady finished 29th in completion rate at 33.7% and that is the bugaboo in this game. Washington only blitzes at the 13th highest rate but has the fifth-most sacks and the fourth-highest pressure rate. That could leave Brady not doing exactly what you want him to do.
The narrative that will make the rounds in a big way is WFT defensive lineman Chase Young saying “I want Tom Brady” after the Philly game. Let me tell you Mr. Young (who was phenomenal in his rookie year) – no. No, you do not. Brady and Coach Bruce Arians are going to make them pay for that one if they can. I think Brady is a very strong play, but the WFT defense is second in DVOA against the pass this year. It’s a very interesting spot that could go multiple ways, which is why Allen is my number one quarterback on the slate in a vacuum.
RB – It’s likely to be the RoJo Show on Saturday as Ronald Jones came back from missing two games and played 54% of the snaps with 12 attempts on the ground. It was a bit of a bummer that he wasn’t targeted in the passing game, which is why I believe Akers and Carson are both better options. Washington is 11th in DVOA against the run and if Jones gets around 15 touches, he’s still a bargain. I think the Bucs might actually run a little bit more than the perception is. They likely can’t just have Brady drop back 40-45 times with no threat of the run game because of the front seven of Washington. Brady will try to prove that Young was wrong, but that doesn’t exactly mean he’s dropping back 60 times. Jones will probably be a pivot to other backs, but not a priority.
WR – One of the bigger injuries to watch on this slate is Mike Evans. If he were to be out, the changes the dynamic of the Tampa offense and puts a lot more work on Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown. It’s not hard to see the upside for those two without Evans as they both went for over 30 DK in last week’s game when Evans left very early. If Evans is active, he’s really mis-priced as the second Tampa receiver. Even with leaving super early, Evans was the man with AB in the lineup. He led in targets, RZ targets, EZ targets, yards and touchdowns since Week 9. That’s just indisputable at this point.
Evans faces Kendall Fuller, who has been very good this season. He’s in the top 30 in pPT, passer rating and catch rate allowed on the year, not to mention YPR at 11.5. Considering those numbers came over 104 targets, that is pretty impressive. Evans does have a big advantage in size, as Fuller is just 5’11” and you can definitely see Brady just putting the ball around him and letting Evans do the work. That doesn’t even count the RZ work, which is going to be difficult for Fuller to defend.
AB faces likely Ronald Darby and that is massive advantage to Brown. He allowed a 13.5 YPR and was targeted 113 times for 65 receptions. Browns doesn’t look like terribly far off from peak AB at the moment. Five of his eight games have been 13 DK or higher, walking off the street with no football or being in the offense. That’s impressive and he’s going to torch Darby at least once. It will just be a matter of Brady getting the ball there.
Godwin has an easier matchup in the slot against Jimmy Moreland, who allowed a 65.8% catch rate on the year. If Evans is in, I likely don’t pay up for him this week and just play AB and Evans. Pretending everyone is full strength, I have them as Evans, Brown and then Godwin in priority.
*Update* We’re still not sure on Evans, so hopefully we get more of an update before this slate kicks off we’ll know. I think Diggs is a stone cold lock, so Evans and AB would be the easiest ways to get exposure here.
TE – I feel like I always struggle with Rob Gronkowski. When a player is almost $4,000 at tight end and he has to score to pay off, it can be dicey. He does sit second in RZ and EZ targets on the team, so the equity is high. Washington was just average in touchdowns allowed with seven, so a guy like Gronkowski sits where he has in the past few weeks for me. I’d play him in a Brady stack so the touchdowns are 10 point scores, but I’m much happier to play the receivers with much higher reception chances.
D/ST – Since the Bucs have the second-highest pressure rate and 48 sacks on the year, they have to be considered as well. Washington is going to have to play really well up front, because their quarterback is not going to be very mobile to get out of trouble. If you can afford them, by all means you can play them but I don’t think they are the slam dunk option on the slate.
Cash – Evans, Brady, AB, D/ST
GPP – Gronk, Godwin, RoJo
Washington
QB – Bringing up the rear in salary is Alex Smith and he really should be. He simply has not shown any type of ceiling, certainly to contend with the Brady’s and Allen’s of the slate. It’s not even like we have to jam in a ton of high-priced studs to want to take the risk on a quarterback like this. Smith has only played part-time this season, but he’s still 30th in yards per attempt, 34th in points per game and threw just six touchdowns. His completion rate under pressure is worse than Brady’s at 35th, 27.5%. That could rear it’s ugly head since the Bucs have the second-highest pressure rate and the highest on this slate. Even if Washington trails in a negative game script, I would just rather play Rivers. With him playing hurt right now, it’s really killed his mobility (little that he had) and he has to get the ball out fast.
*Update* Smith may not even be able to go, as Taylor Heinicke took all the first-team reps. Don’t go this far down for salary.
RB – This really projects as a major J.D. McKissic game. Washington is a heavy underdog and Tampa boasts the best rushing defense in football. It was encouraging to see Antonio Gibson play about 60% of the snaps and log 20 touches on Sunday night, but even then McKissic saw eight targets. On top of that, no team gave up more receptions to backs than Tampa at 101. With the pressure coming from all angles this game, it’s not hard to see why McKissic could get plenty of work through the air. I just don’t think we need to go with Gibson against the number one ranked DVOA against the run and the defense that gave up the fewest rushing yards. I still prefer Akers for $300 more but if you don’t want to go Carson, McKissic makes sense to me.
WR – There’s really only two options here. The first is the one we all know and love and that’s Terry McLaurin. Through his 15 games played, he racked up a 25.5% target share and a 42% air yards share in this offense. He led in receptions by seven over McKissic and lead in yards with over 1,100. Only one player had more than his seven and 12 EZ and RZ targets, and he is the clear alpha in this passing game. Corner Jamel Dean had some ups and downs, but finished with an 89.7 passer rating and a 1.50 pPT. I prefer the Bucs receivers, but McLaurin could be a dynamite GPP option.
Cam Sims checks in as an option in large part because he doesn’t come off the field. He’s played 94% of the snaps or more in the past four months and has 24 targets in that time span.
TE – It can sometimes be a challenge to play the highest salaried tight end, especially when they’re not a big name. Logan Thomas has turned into a consistent player lately and since Week 12, he hasn’t been under double-digit DK points with two games over 30 DK. Since that game, Thomas is neck and neck in target share at 23% with McLaurin for the lead. He also leads in RZ targets at nine and EZ targets at five.
You have to wonder if things are starting to click for the converted quarterback. This is easily the most reps he’s had at the NFL level and tight end can have a steep learning curve. This could be the beginning of a mini-breakout and the Bucs didn’t sparkle against tight ends this year. They allowed nine touchdowns, over 800 yards and 86 receptions. I don’t think he’s the primary target on the slate, but if you get there and love the lineup he’s a great option.
D/ST – I can see a path here, but it might be the riskiest of the bunch. We’ve talked about how good the front is for Washington already, and they’re one of the defenses that can give up points and still pay off due to low salary and splash plays. They forced 23 turnovers on the year and just missed on 50 sacks. If they can consistently get to Brady, it’s easy to see where they get 7-9 DK points. Every defense has some risk this week, and the Colts and Washington could be interesting options of Seattle and LA.
Cash – Thomas
GPP – McLaurin, D/ST, McKissic, Sims
Core Four
Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Cam Akers, Johnathan Taylor
I can’t find enough reasons to fade the Allen/Diggs connection on this slate. We can rotate in John Brown for double-stack opportunities. Akers is just too cheap, and Taylor is going to be a lock in cash. One thing I will point out – in a three max GPP, I’m going to use the entire Colts backfield. Shouts to Discord user Cowabunga for the idea. In the three max, I’ll have one with Taylor, one with Taylor AND Hines, then one with Hines. There’s a reasonable path for both Colts back working out in the same game script and will be underutilized on the three game slate.
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