NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/1

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/1

Last night was a fitting end to the year 2020 because it was a fairly garbage NBA slate. We had blowouts in the majority of games and the studs went partying early, not really performing like we thought for the most part. Let’s kick the new year off right with a 10 game slate that has a ton of options for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/1!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($9,600 DK/$9,900) – If you’re expecting his price to go down, well that’s not going to happen. He’s sitting at a 1.43 FPPM and a 31.8% usage rate so far this season and here’s the really scary part – he’s shooting terribly so far. The true shooting is 58% while his career mark is 62.3%. From beyond the arc, he’s got a career 43.4% success rate and he’s shooting 31.8% so far through four games. That’s almost a full 12% worse than his career number. Not only is it just simple math that he’ll get better, Portland allows the eighth-most three point attempts early on. This could be the first signature Chef Curry spot of the year.

Trae Young ($10,100 DK/$9,700 FD) – Young has the “GTD” tag but he’s also probable. The Hawks are also missing Rajon Rondo, Kris Dunn, Danilo Gallinari and possibly De’Andre Hunter. They’re going to be thin and that means even more falls onto Young. He’s already sitting at a 1.57 FPPM and a 34.5% usage rate. The Hawks point guard is already sixth in drives per game and Brooklyn is 26th in points given up in the paint. Young is also cold behind the arc so far at 34.3% compared to a 41.7% career mark. We saw what this game environment can bring just a couple nights ago, as these teams are fourth and sixth in pace so far.

Kyrie Irving ($9,300 DK/$9,300 FD) – Overlook Kyrie at your own peril here. There’s not many players that can go 10-27 from the field and still eke out 40 DK points, but that’s what he pulled off last game. Taking Spencer Dinwiddie off the court has pushed Kyrie’s usage up 3.5% to 32.5% so far. Another difference was the Nets started to give Kyrie and Kevin Durant a few minutes on the court by themselves, which will only bump up both players fantasy appeal. The Hawks are 22nd in points allowed thus far and there could be fireworks afoot again.

Dejounte Murray ($6,900 DK/$7,400 FD) – The price is up there a bit, but if LaMarcus Aldridge is out again, Murray is slightly cheaper than DeMar DeRozan and he might make a little bit more sense. Murray is at a 29.5% usage rate with LMA off the floor, while DDR is at 26.6%. I don’t think either are a must play as of now, but we’ll also see who projects to be chalky. Murray led the Spurs in field goals attempted last game so that is interesting to note. Keep an eye on Derrick White and Aldridge. White is going to play for the first time this year, and if he has no restrictions I may cool off on the Spurs in cash. Doubly so if LMA is active.

Raul Neto ($3,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – The Wizards are on a back to back, which means Russell Westbrook is not going to play. Enter Neto, as he drew the start last time Westbrook sat and played 32 minutes. He SCORCHED his salary for about 13x and DK didn’t price him up for this spot. FD he’s a little more “expensive” but not enough to consider fading. The field will put this together and flock to Neto. I expect him to be a free square in cash games today, meaning I’m eating all that yummy chalk. In a 44 minute sample, Neto has a 1.13 FPPM and a 23.1% usage. Those are the highest behind our next player.

Honorable Mention – Mike Conley, Terry Rozier (I’m very likely to pair Neto with a Curry, Young or Kyrie on FD especially).

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($9,400 DK/$9,500 FD) – Both sites missed the memo with Beal’s pricing and the pair of he and Neto is one of (if not THE) highest priorities for me in cash right now. The last time this situation presented itself, you got right about 90 DK points and tonight’s price is $12,800. That was well over the 6x multiplier we look floor and Beal wasn’t even that great. He didn’t hit a field goal from deep, going 0-7. The bottom line is Beal has a 36.2% usage and 1.32 FPPM when Westy is off the floor. Oh, one last thing for this pair – Minnesota is bottom 10 in real points allowed and defensive rating while sitting 14th in pace.

D’Angelo Russell ($7,500 DK/$7,500 FD) – He’s not going to be wildly popular, so PG is the better play if matching chalk I’m going to bet. Still, D-Lo is a very capable NBA player. It hasn’t clicked in a big way this year yet but the 29.7% usage rate when Karl Anthony-Towns is off the floor is nothing to sneer at. Part of it is he’s playing under 30 minutes a game, due to some blowouts. Washington has been one of the worst teams defensively for a long time and that is continuing. They rank third in pace but 26th in points allowed, always a recipe to attack.

Donovan Mitchell ($6,800 DK) – I only listed the DK price because Mitchell is still way too expensive for cash on FD with PG, D-Lo and Beal around him. However, the DK price is insane. I will usually stay away from a scoring dependent player when he’s $7,500 or higher. Mitchell at $6,800 is a giant mis-price. There’s just no way around it. You don’t get a player of Mitchell’s caliber with a 31% usage rate at this price. I don’t care about the matchup or back to back at this price.

Paul George ($8,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – I won’t be touching him on DK but on FD, he’s still just way too cheap. I was shocked to see him hovering at 70% last slate with Kawhi Leonard back on FD. Taking a step back, it makes sense as the price is super low for a player of his repute that has a 1.32 FPPM and a usage rate of 29.2%. The matchup isn’t spectacular as the Jazz are seventh in points allowed and play a t a very slow pace. Maybe Beal takes the ownership away tonight, but let’s see how it pans out. I don’t think he’s a bad play but Beal is the clear spend up in my eyes.

Devonte’ Graham ($6,600 DK/$6,100 FD) – Graham always seems to get some love on FD, which might shift a little bit since he’s over $6,00 and coming off a floor game. He’s only a point guard on DK but that’s fine as I’m uninterested at the price on that site. FD is a bit different and Graham gets a good game environment. The Hornets and Grizzlies are both top 12 in pace so far, and Memphis is bottom six in real points allowed. Graham has shot under 35% from the floor so far, which is pretty low and should turnaround. He lags behind Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward in usage, but 0.89 FPPM at about 32 minutes a game makes him a cash option.

Derrick Rose ($5,900 DK/$5,700 FD) – Rose is not really my favorite cash option but he might be about as cheap as you can go at this spot on FD at least. He’s playing off the bench but Killian Hayes is questionable for this game. Rose could enter the starting lineup and right now off the bench, he’s rocking a 28.9% usage rate so far. Hayes is almost at 20% himself and Rose would have plenty of chances to handle the ball if he’s starting. I would feel more comfortable with that scenario, but even off the bench he’s fine as a last man in.

Honorable Mention – DeMar DeRozan

Small Forward

Kevin Durant ($9,100 DK/$9,400 FD) – KD is just a power forward on DK, but he is egregiously priced on both sites. This dude has been nothing short of incredible coming back this season and is playing 32 minutes a night. He flashed the ceiling last game with a 63 DK bomb, flirting with a triple-double. KD leads the Brooklyn team in FPPM with Dinwiddie off the floor at 1.57. We already talked about the elite game environment and if I can swing a core of Neto, Beal and KD….I’m going to be a happy man. I truly would love to see it.

Gordon Hayward ($7,100 DK/$8,100 FD) – He’s much more palatable on DK, and I’m making a concentrated effort for KD on FD. However, the DK price is appealing for a player that has been over 40 DK in two of four games so far. In competitive games, he’s played 35 and 36 minutes and has a 1.13 FPPM. Charlotte is a weird team so far. Five players have a FPPM over 1.00 so Hayward isn’t a stone cold lock but the Memphis spot does him a lot of favors.

Bogdan Bogdanovic ($5,400 DK/$5,400 FD) – BogBog is only guard eligible on DK but I want a good piece of him on both sites. With Gallo out, I have a hard time seeing how Bogdanovic plays anything under 28 minutes, if not a hair more. He’s been a sharpshooter from deep so far at 42.9% but the game should be played at warp speed yet again, affording him chances. BogBog is sitting at just over a 1.00 FPPM with Gallo off the floor and if Hunter is out on top of it, he could push for 34 minutes or more. If Hunter is out, Bogdanovic looks close to a lock in my eyes.

Josh Jackson ($5,200 DK/$4,800 FD) – What does this man have to do to get his price up? I know he’s on a bad team, but he’s been on fire to start and the price just won’t move. I’d be surprised if the model didn’t like him again. Jackson has a 25.8% usage rate and a 1.17 FPPM which leads the team. I will say the potential of seeing Jayson Tatum on defense isn’t exciting, but the price still isn’t right for a player that has the role Jackson does.

*Update* Blake Griffin is out, so Jackson gets even bigger of a bump.

Cam Reddish ($4,700 DK/$4,600 FD) – A newcomer to the article, Reddish is the type of player that doesn’t do a whole lot but play a ton of minutes. At this price, that counts for something. The usage is just under 19%, which is higher than I thought it might be. Even the 0.87 FPPM is higher than I thought as well. He’s scored in double-digits in three of four games so far and has improved his shooting by 6% and 4% from three. Even the true shooting is up 5.2% which are all encouraging signs for the 21-year old.

Otto Porter ($5,600 DK/$4,400 FD) – I like Jackson better on DK but on FD it almost has to be Porter at this price. Lauri Markkanen is ruled out for this game which means Porter will likely stay in the starting lineup. By no means should you pencil in the 57 DK he dropped yesterday, but his salary doesn’t match a starting role on FD. He’s still at a 0.89 FPPM with Markkanen off the floor and has proven he can score if asked to. At this low of a price on FD, he’ll have to work hard to totally flop.

Will Barton – He should start for Michael Porter Jr. tonight for the Nuggets and is cheap on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Kawhi Leonard, Jaylen Brown

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,400 FD) – I can’t possibly see a soul on Chicago that can slow down the Greek tonight, let alone stop him. The interior presence is non-existent and ABC should dominate all night long if he chooses to. Giannis is only at a 1.56 FPPM, which is a bit of a drop for him but he’s still capable of nearing 70 DK points on any given night. You can argue blowout, even as much as we try to ignore those factors. With a spread of 14.5 points, that is a threshold that I worry about (and why I haven’t mentioned other Bucks). I don’t view him as a MUST in cash, but I can’t say you’re totally wrong if you play him.

Jayson Tatum ($8,600 DK/$9,500 FD) – I’m not playing him over KD on DK, but Tatum is a solid option. The game only has a nine point spread and my rule is anything under 12, I’m not worried. A nine point game keeps the studs on the floor until the end. Tatum is now second on the team in FPPM at 1.28 but that’s because Brown went ham last game. Tatum is still leading at 30.3% usage and is playing 36-40 minutes when the game dictates it. Detroit sits 26th in real points allowed and 22nd in defensive rating.

Draymond Green ($6,100 DK/$6,000 FD) – This play is contingent on two factors. The first is the minutes he’ll be given. If Coach Steve Kerr elects to be easy with him, scratch him off the list quickly. Secondly, I would only play him on FD where the blocks and steals are worth more. The Warriors desperately need his defense as they are dead last in points allowed and can’t fall behind in the West. I think Dray is full go, but that is an educated guess as of Thursday night.

Robert Covington ($4,600 DK/$5,400 FD) – Flip to the other side of this game and it could turn into a run and gun affair. It has the second-highest total posted (out of six) and RoCo gets about 30 minutes a night. He’s inside the top six in steals per game and the Warriors give up the most rebounds per game. This is a good spot for Covington to rack up some peripheral stats and he is exceptionally cheap on DK.

Naz Reid ($5,200 DK/$4,700 FD) – Naz is C only on DK and I honestly hope the field overlooks him because the results have been average to bad so far. Washington is the get right spot for him as they are bottom-five in rebounds in the paint and mid-pack in points in the paint given up. It’s a great pace spot and his 19.3% usage rate and 1.00 FPPM stand to shine through tonight.

Thad Young ($3,500 DK/$3,700 FD) – If you’re concerned about the blowout in Milwaukee, Young offers you a different path. He’s only played in one game so far, but he logged 27 minutes off the bench and put up 15 real points on 12 shots. The Bulls are not a deep team so he’s not fighting anyone too badly for shots or the ball. He won’t approach 10x too often, but his price is so low that a 20 DK game works perfectly. If KD give you 50 and Thad give you 20, that’s just under 6x. Five more points from them both clears the bar pretty easily.

Honorable Mention – John Collins (I think this would be very bad chalk if he’s popular), Nic Batum (more on FD than anything)

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,600 DK/$10,200 FD) – Big Honey has started the season in style with three triple-doubles in four games. He’s a rebound short of going 4-4 so far and it’s not hard to see why – touches. He leads the NBA in touching that ball at 113.0 per game and the next closest is Damontas Sabonis at 103.8 (files that stat away). Point guard Jamal Murray is “hopeful” to play which means two things. The first is Monte Morris enters cash considerations if Murray is out and the second is Joker’s floor rises even more. Without Murray, Jokic is at a 1.61 FPPM and a 31.8% usage rate.

Jonas Valanciunas ($8,300 DK/$7,700 FD) – He’s too rich for my blood on DK but FD is a great price. Remember, we need to have a short memory in NBA. If a player burned you one night, he burned you that one night. JoVal has a 22.5% usage rate and a 1.16 FPPM without Ja Morant on the court and the FPPM leads the squad. The Hornets are bottom 10 in rebounds allowed and JoVal is first in rebounding chances per game. They have no center that is chasing JoVal around the floor. Bismack Biyombo could have real issues guarding Valanciunas near the three point line and I’m back to the big man tonight.

Thomas Bryant ($6,300 DK/$5,800 FD) – Bryant is a real bargain on FD and gets a soft matchup to boot. Minnesota is 25th in rebounds in the paint and rebounds given up, not to mention below average in points in the paint. Bryant averages 7.3 paint touches per game and 5.3 field goal attempts, making him a dangerous match for the T-Wolves tonight.

Jakob Poeltl – Aldridge is out, and Poeltl is still cash safe. Foul trouble destroyed his first half last game and he still hit right about 5x in this same matchup.

Honorable Mention – Bam Adebayo, Rudy Gobert, Mason Plumlee

DK Core

Raul Neto, Bradley Beal, Nikola Jokic, Thad Young

That leaves almost $5,800 to build the other four pieces with

FD Core

Raul Neto, Bradley Beal, Nikola Jokic, Thad Young

It’s the same story on both sites tonight. Naz Reid is and easier fit on FD, whereas Jakob Poeltl is an easy fit on DK.

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