Adam Strangis NFL Prop Bets Week 15
It was a solid week overall, even though the article last week was hit and miss. We went 2-2 on the main bets, 4-0 on Monday Night Football then another 2-2 on Thursday night (curse you Austin Ekeler). That brings us to 60-33 on the season, which I’m still quite happy with. What I’m not happy with is Pizza Money Bets. The record is not good enough to continue giving picks, so that section will be scrapped for now. I’ll still have some plays in Discord though so keep your eyes open. For now, let’s dive in and try to continue making money at the sports book for NFL Prop Bets Week 15!
Saturday Slate Special
Prop One
K.J. Hamler Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
Saturday is a bit of a weird slate and I wouldn’t spend a lot of bankroll on any bets here. A lot of the stars are juiced to numbers that are a little uncomfortable for very little return. For instance, Stefon Diggs is at 6.5 receptions and the over is -175. I’ll dial back the bankroll and try to hit some higher returns and I starts with Hamler. The Broncos are nearly touchdown underdogs and will likely have to throw to stay in this one. Hamler is playing in the slot nearly 60% of the time this year, leaving him to pick on Taron Johnson. Hamler can absolutely burn with likely around 4.3 40-yard dash speed (it’s not official, but 4.27 is claimed) while Johnson is a 4.5. This may only take a play or two to pay off.
Prop Two
D.J. Moore O 4.5 Receptions
Going by the seasonal track record, this might not be a smart bet. Moore hasn’t been over 4.5 that often but this game they will need all hands on deck. Green Bay is a premier offense in football and Moore is going to have chances. He’s just a tick under a 23% target share on the season. Even if he sees some of Packers corner Jaire Alexander, I feel like the Panthers are plying catchup nearly the entire game. Carolina has a bottom five pressure rate on defense so it’s hard to see how they stop the Packers. In a chasing game script, I’ll take my shot with Moore.
Prop Three
Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 Touchdowns
I want to be clear about two factors here. One, make sure this is your lowest volume bet of the weekend. Touchdowns are volatile, even for Rodgers. Secondly, if this dips below +100, just skip it. We’re betting it because it’s an underdog and Rodgers has hit this bet 10 of 13 games. I’m counting it towards my record no matter what, but you have to be smart with it. Always remember what Stix says – we bet the numbers, NOT the player.
Sunday Main Slate
Prop One
T.Y. Hilton Over 4.5 Receptions
Well, I’m going all in on T.Y. this weekend apparently. He’s one of my favorite plays in DFS and I may as well hit the prop as well. Hilton has been on fire and has seen 18 targets the past two weeks, not to mention the additional game where he went off for 4/81/1. He’s peaking at the exact right time for Indy, who needs to keep winning. Hilton has tortured the Texans in his career. There’s no player in the Houston secondary that we need to worry about at all. Two weeks ago, Hilton got them for 8/110/1 and he might well do it again here.
Prop Two
Brandon Aiyuk Over 5.5 Receptions
The rookie has missed this mark once in the past five games and that was one that Deebo Samuel played. Deebo is out Sunday, as is George Kittle so Aiyuk is the passing game. He gets to pick on a Cowboys secondary that is in flux. They might get some of their starters back, but that doesn’t really matter. Even Chidobe Awuzie and Trevon Diggs are at a 1.90 point per target or higher. Coach Kyle Shanahan can scheme like few others and Aiyuk is the best chance to move the ball through the air.
Prop Three
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions
I need some piece of this game and I’ll take Zeus. The return isn’t spectacular but there’s nothing wrong with playing some safer bets. Kelce leads the NFL in receiving yards heading into the weekend, and his yardage prop is as high as I’ve seen it this year at 85.5 yards. Kelce hasn’t been under eight receptions since Week 7 and I don’t expect it to be different now. He’s a monster and I can’t think of who can stop him on the Saints defense. When you have a 25% target share from Patrick Mahomes, I’m betting on how many you catch.
Prop Four
David Montgomery Over 60.5 Rushing Yards
The Vikings give up nearly 120 rush yards per game and will be without linebacker Eric Kendricks. Monty has hit at least 72 rushing yards in the past three games and has plays of 57 and 80 in two of them. He’s in a groove right now and is averaging about 14 carries and 63 yards per game. This number just seems too low by about 8-10 yards for his workload and matchup.
Record – 60-33
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