Adam Strangis NFL Prop Bets Week 9
One of the only things to make Sunday better is being at sports books with player props. We started with a pretty solid week since Monday, going 5-1 on the six bets posted in the Discord. I’ll have a group of 3-5 player props a week moving forward, and we’re ready to get started for NFL Prop Bets Week 9!
Prop One
Stefon Diggs Over 5.5 receptions
Not every bet is going to be some massive money maker, and the odds certainly aren’t the juiciest ever. Still, there’s nothing wrong with taking what looks to be a sure bet and maybe throw this into a parlay or two. The Seattle/Buffalo game is the highest O/U on the main slate this Sunday and Diggs is going to get plenty of opportunity. He gets an even bigger bump with Seattle cornerback Quinton Dunbar ruled out and has only missed this mark once all year. Diggs also boasts a 28.9% target share, seventh-highest in football.
Prop Two
Diontae Johnson Over 3.5 receptions
If you’ve been hanging around Discord, we’ve been talking about how the Steelers have immense upside against one of the worst defenses in football. They also have downside, as the game is not projected to be close. Pittsburgh is the heaviest favorite of the week, with a great defense as the backbone. I expected to not touch this game for props, but this mark for Johnson is egregious. Yes, he’s struggled with injuries. Yes, he had a miserable game last week. Johnson also has three healthy games of double-digit targets. He’s missed almost three full games and is only six targets off the team lead. When he’s active, he’s been the alpha and four catches shouldn’t be close to an issue.
Prop Three
Justin Herbert Over Passing Yards 270.5
I honestly thought I mis-read the number when I first saw this one. Herbet has six starts under his belt and so far, his low water mark is 264. He’s averaging the third-most passing yards in football per game at 303.3. Now he gets a Raiders defense that has allowed the 25th most passing yards per game at 260.7. They are also 27th in DVOA against the pass. The Chargers are down defensive lineman Joey Bosa, increasing the odds the Raiders offense keeps this game close. Given what Herbert as shown, this is a pretty solid number to chase after in NFL Prop Bets Week 9.
Prop Four
Brandin Cooks Over 4.5 receptions
We’ve come to the only underdog this week but I don’t think he should be. The Texans take on the Jaguars this week and Cooks has been interesting since Bill O’Brien got fired after Week 4. Houston has played three games since then, and Cooks leads them in target share at 27.3%. That’s translated to 30 total targets. He’s recorded at least seven receptions in all three games. That includes scorching Jacksonville for an 8/161/1 line in the first game. You can be concerned about the Jaguars keeping it close with a rookie quarterback at the helm but Cooks should be able to secure five receptions before it gets off the rails.
Record – 5-1
Let’s get after it this week my friends!
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