NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 4

NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 4

Week 3 was another great week for the Win Daily family with plenty of screenshots! The team is on fire with their calls and we’re moving onto Week 4. There’s a TON of games with high totals and we’re down to a 12 game slate. We have got a ton of work to do so let’s dig right in and start working on NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 4 to keep the good times going!

Saints vs Lions, O/U of 54 (Saints -4)

Saints

QB – I was totally ready to mostly skip Drew Brees on this slate until I saw that he was priced as the QB16. Does Brees have some issues? Absolutely. He might still be without star receiver Michael Thomas, which makes his job much harder. The prime issue with Brees is the unwillingness to push to ball down the field so far, allowing defenses to continue to creep up. He does rank fifth in red zone attempts at 18, so that helps a bit.

Brees ranks 29th in intended air yards so far and is the only qualifying quarterback to be under 5.0 yards for intended air yards per passing attempt. Every other quarterback is above 6.0 while Brees is at 4.6. Just by the eye test, he loaded up to throw a deep ball two or three times Sunday night and pulled it back. I’m not quite sure what the issue is, but it’s undeniable. In three games, Brees has exactly three passes of 20+ yards downfield. The price is tempting, but you have to understand what you get into.

RB – Is DK serious with this price tag? Alvin Kamara has the most disrespectful salary of the entire slate. He’s the Saints entire offense right now. Only DeAndre Hopkins has more receptions on the season at 32, while Kamara is second at 27. Kamara ranks fifth in receiving yards and already has six total touchdowns. That’s not even counting the 31 rushing attempts. Detroit has allowed the third-most rushing yards alone. This might be just the second player we’ve talked about, but Kamara is a cash lock and is going to be a scary fade in GPP at this salary. Latavius Murray is in the MME conversation with 30 rush attempts himself. If he scores a short TD, he’s going to pay off even though he’s not super cheap.

WR – Given the issues for Brees, the ceiling for the receivers has been lower as well. That could change with Michael Thomas back at practice. As long as he’s healthy, he has to be considered at under $8,000 and I wouldn’t look at Tre’Quan Smith or Emmanuel Sanders. Thomas has no corner that should scare you and he and Kamara should eat up the majority of targets. Sometimes, the matchup is irrelevant when we get this kind of salary play.

*Update* Thomas is out, but that doesn’t mean I’m playing Sanders or Smith in this spot. It just means Kamara still has incredible ceiling here.

TE – We’ll have to see if Jared Cook plays this week after an injury Sunday night, but even if he does the price doesn’t do much for me. He’s the fourth-most expensive option despite having all of nine receptions and under 120 yards on the season. Even without Thomas, he’s managed eight targets for under 12% of the share. About the only redeeming factor is two red zone targets and one end zone target. That’s just not enticing enough for a limping Cook at his price.

*Update* Cook is out and one play I maybe overlooked a bit is Adam Trautman. He should see more snaps and targets. The Saints traded just about all their draft picks to move up to draft him. He’s quite volatile, but at $2,500 it won’t take a whole lot to make it worth playing him.

D/ST – I don’t mind the Saints defense, despite just giving up nearly 40 to Aaron Rodgers and company. Matt Stafford hasn’t been pressured a ton at just 15.8% so far but the Saints do have seven sacks already to go with four turnovers. The pricing doesn’t do a lot for me considering who else they are around.

Cash – Kamara (lock on DK at least)

GPP – Brees, Trautman

Lions

QB – Matthew Stafford is under $6,000 and in play, but I have my eye on a sub-$5,500 QB this week that I might be heavy on. Stafford is top 12 in intended air yards so far, and that’s fairly impressive since he’s only played with receiver Kenny Golladay for one game so far. He’s also in the top 12 in passing attempts to go with ninth in yardage so the volume has pretty much been there so far and should continue this week. New Orleans has gotten hit for over 800 yards through the air so far and an 8:2 TD:INT ratio. The one nitpick could be he accuracy so far. Stafford sits 30th in on target rate, which is poor. I’m willing to overlook that a little with no Golladay. The Lions sit eighth in pace while New Orleans is 16th, so the higher O/U has a good chance of hitting and Stafford is the engine for this offense.

RB – This backfield is beyond annoying. Detroit has spent two top 45 draft picks on Kerryon Johnson and D’Andre Swift. Yet, those two backs combined for five touches on Sunday while approximately 276 year old Adrian Peterson accounted for 23 touches. When you can grind out 3.4 yards per carry, you just have to do it. This is a backfield where the snaps are mostly irrelevant. When the touches are that far apart, Peterson is the clear lead dog. I’m not very interested in him, even though he does save some salary. He does have touchdown appeal with nine red zone carries, while Swift is averaging four targets a game. If you think the Saints can win this game handily, maybe Swift gets a few targets in this game but it’s hard to play based on that alone. New Orleans have allowed 272 rushing yards to running backs, a top 12 mark in the league.

WR – Now that Golladay has a game under his belt and reportedly didn’t aggravate the injury, it could be all systems go here. He’s quite cheap for his upside and already led the Lions in targets and yards in his first game. Saints corner Marshon Lattimore hasn’t been targeted often yet with just 10 targets but he’s allowed 2.6 fantasy points per target. He’s not someone that scares me off a cheap Golladay. Stafford isn’t going to not throw the ball that way either, and the 10.9 aDOT for Golladay would rank first on the team.

I had thought that the return of Golladay would benefit Marvin Jones but for one week, it didn’t help at all. Jones finished fourth in targets on the day with just three. Now he came down with all three of them but he didn’t get a red zone look which is part of his appeal. If Golladay draws plenty of Lattimore, Jones should see some of Janoris Jenkins who has a 1.3 fantasy point allowed per target mark. I’ll stick with Golladay in this passing game. Danny Amendola would be an MME option out of the slot against P.J. Williams of the Saints, but nothing more.

*Update* Both Lattimore and Jenkins are out for the Saints. Golladay becomes one of the better plays on the board in my eyes. He was underpriced with Lattimore.

TE – I’m not sure where the random Jesse James game rolled in from but he had zero targets coming into Week 3. Make no mistake that TJ Hockenson is still the man at this position even though James scored. The Saints got smoked by Darren Waller to skew the numbers a bit, but they have given up the most DK points per game to the tight end through three weeks. No team has given up more yardage or receptions and they are tied for last with four touchdowns surrendered. That didn’t all come from Waller. Hockenson has carved out a solid role with a 13.3% air yard share and a 15.7% target share. The red zone targets have been pretty spread out and Jones leads with just three. Hockenson is still under $5,000 and is on the field for right about 70% of the snaps. He’s got my interest this week.

D/ST – I’m not sure what to make of the Saints but I’m not exactly looking at the Lions defense either. Brees has only been sacked three times, which matches the amount of sacks Detroit has. Additionally, they’ve forced three turnovers while New Orleans has only one turnover that didn’t come from Taysom Hill being on the field for no reason.

Cash – Stafford, Golladay, Hockenson

GPP – Jones, Amendola, Peterson

Colts at Bears, O/U of 43 (Colts -2.5)

Colts

QB – Playing Philip Rivers really doesn’t make a ton of sense to me. He’s not thrown over 25 passes in the past two games as he Colts have rolled to a combined 64-18 scoring differential. Even though the Bears offense should be better now, I don’t see a reason Rivers suddenly airs it out like crazy. He’s also been under 220 passing yards the past two weeks, and is in the top 12 on the back of nearly 400 yards in Week 1. The Colts are playing at the fourth-slowest pace in the league, and the Bears rank 24th. This projects to be a slogfest and not one where I’m looking to play a quarterback who’s down two receivers as well. It’s tied for the lowest O/U on the main slate as of Tuesday.

RB – Can someone tell me what this backfield is going to be week to week? We saw the Colts saddle up Jonathan Taylor for 25+ touches in Week 2, just to see him fall to 14 this week. That meant that Nyheim Hines went from one touch to 11, and Jordan Wilkins went for 10. The scores of each week were somewhat similar too so chalking it up to blowout likely isn’t the reasoning. The good news is between the two weeks, Taylor still has 55% of the carries and 84.6% of the red zone rushes. If he has to give a little work between the 20’s, he can make up for it with this amount of red zone work. Chicago hasn’t been a daunting matchup yet either with 301 rushing yards given up to go with four rushing touchdowns. Hines does have some appeal on DK since the Colts are missing two receivers.

WR – Now that Parris Campbell and Michael Pittman are out for the foreseeable future, Zach Pascal enters as a cheap receiver who could get some work. The two that are missing combined for about 21% of the targets so far with a 27% air yards share, so there is some slack to be picked up. T.Y. Hilton has been awfully silent this year as well so maybe this will help get him going. Some of his metrics are encouraging. He owns 35.8% of the air yards in the Colts offense for a 13.7 aDOT but his target share is just 17.7%. Hilton only has 10 receptions on the season on just 17 targets.

Rivers is spreading the ball out to everyone through the first three weeks. If Hilton can’t get something going this week, it might be tough to trust him at all.

TE – Another potential beneficiary from the receivers missing is Mo Alie-Cox. He saw another solid fantasy game with 14 DK points but that was just on three targets. He was on the field for 60% of the snaps even though Jack Doyle was active this week, a good sign for the athletic tight end. Additionally, he saw the only end zone target in the offense so this could be Alie-Cox securing a bigger role in the offense. I can’t say I’d trust him but he’s still under $4,000 himself.

D/ST – I’m not saying Nick Foles is a world beater, but I would’ve preferred the Colts defense if Mitchell Trubisky was under center. Foles should at least stay away from the mistakes that can plague Trubisky and I’m not sure we should chase the Colts coming off scoring two defensive touchdowns. The good news is they’re only $3,300 but it’s tough to tell if the nine sacks (sixth-most) and six turnovers forced (tied for second-most) are real or based on a soft schedule for the first three weeks.

Cash – Taylor

GPP – Hilton, Pascal, Hines, Alie-Cox, D/ST

Bears

QB – The Bears finally yanked Trubisky for Foles, who now gets a full week of reps in practice to get ready. He’s plenty cheap after putting up three scores in limited playing time last week, but I’m not sold on this is the cheap quarterback you need. He has some of the same concerns that Rivers does in a low O/U game and playing in a slow offense. You can argue that the offense moves quicker and is better with Foles, but we’ve only seen him in comeback mode this year. The funny thing is Foles has a lower intended air yards per attempt than Trubisky, 9.2 to 10.0. If we desperately needed the savings at quarterback, maybe I’d be more excited here but we don’t. So I’m not really looking at Foles this week.

RB – I liked David Montgomery last week but it did not work out at all. He wasn’t very involved in the passing game despite the game script and losing Tarik Cohen, which was pretty disappointing. The bright side is he totaled another 16 touches and has 49 through three weeks. His price is pretty cheap for that volume, even though the matchup is not great. Indy has shut down running backs for the most part, only allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards of 231. Montgomery did respond a bit to the QB change because he was averaging under 2.0 yards per carry with Trubisky. Overall, this price isn’t bad but it’s not a matchup I’m looking to attack. The Colts check in as a top five DVOA defense to this juncture.

*Update* I noticed after hitting publish that after Cohen was lost last week, Montgomery played 19-of-21 snaps. That’s an awful lot and he is underpriced for that role. He’s a much better GPP play than I originally thought.

WR – One man that’s happy about the QB change is Allen Robinson. He went for what was easily his best game of the year with 10/123/1 on 13 targets for over 30 DK points. He’s the clear number one option in the offense with a 31.6% share of the air yards and a 27.7% target share. The 11.0 aDOT is plenty good enough and perhaps the only “knock” is he’s third in red zone and end zone targets on the team. He plays under 25% in the slot, so he’ll see Indy corner Rock Ya-Sin and Xavier Rhodes. Before the Jets game, Rhodes was getting tagged for over five fantasy points per target and allowed a perfect passer rating. Ya-Sin is the tougher corner, but 1.60 points per target with a 92.7 passer rating isn’t scary either. I’m believing these numbers more than what comes out of the Jets game for obvious reasons.

Anthony Miller has lived in the slot almost exclusively which leaves him on Kenny Moore. By the numbers Moore would be the tougher matchup with just a 62.4 passer rating allowed. However, he has allowed a catch rate of 64.7%. Miller has just a 12.5% target share but I won’t be surprised to see that climb a little with Foles. This is a good case of the red number for a bad matchup being slightly misleading. The individual matchups look better for both receivers diving in, but they would be more GPP than cash for me. You can play Robinson in cash but he won’t be a prime target in that format for me.

TE – Jimmy Graham might be old, but he’s been the man in the red zone for the Bears and in fact, is second in the league in that category with seven. Only Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley has more end zone targets with seven to Graham’s five. Old Man Strength Graham sits in the top 12 in targets among tight ends as well, so even though his air yards resemble a running back’s aDOT, the touchdown equity is there in spades. When you’re not paying full price for a tight end, that’s all you can hope for.

Graham is still not even $4,000 at this point so this isn’t even just a chase of a big game last week. The 16% target share is nice and even if Miller comes up a bit, there’s meat on the bone for Graham. It does have to be noted the Colts have been the best team against the position with just 6/32/0 allowed through three weeks. However, they haven’t played a single tight end of repute yet. No, Kyle Rudolph doesn’t count. I think he’s viable in all formats and credit to the Rocker for being on him last week.

D/ST – There is some value of defense in low scoring games but do the Bears have any upside? They do have seven sacks but a bottom-eight pressure rate of just 17.9%. Given that Rivers sits at the 31st pressure rate of just 12.6%, the sack upside is hard to see. With both teams playing slow, the turnovers might not be there either. Indy only has three turnovers so the Bears are likely fine, but nothing great.

Cash – Robinson, Graham

GPP – Miller, Foles, Montgomery

Cardinals at Panthers, O/U of 51 (Cardinals -3)

Cardinals

QB – Perhaps the scariest thing with Kyler Murray is he’s averaging over 28 DK and has yet to be below 24.7 and he’s sporting a 4:5 TD:INT ratio with only 262 yards per game passing. That’s right, he’s 15thin passing yards and has more picks than touchdowns and is still an elite fantasy option. He’s been saved by 62 rushing yards per game and four scores on the ground already. Murray also has the seventh-most intended air yards, so the passing upside seems just out of reach right now.

Something else that sort of undercuts the production is the utter lack of red zone passing. Now, he makes up for it with four rushing touchdowns but that pace is unlikely to keep up. Murray has vastly improved by the numbers, completing eight of nine passes in the red zone and four of five inside the 10. Last year that was where he scuffled the most. The Panthers are about average with 786 passing yards given up. They’ve faced Derek Carr, Tom Brady and Justin Herbert. Considering Brady was plagued by drops, it could be way worse. Carolina is 30th in DVOA and we could see the explosion game for Kyler here.

RB – I am so unbelievably torn here. We’ve attacked the Panthers with running backs for well over a year now. They were the stone worst last year and rank as the second-worst team this year. They’ve given up the seventh-most yards rushing to backs and seven touchdowns to lead the league. Additionally, they’ve allowed the most receptions to the position for the third-most yards. It’s the nuts matchup. However, Kenyan Drake has been anything but the nuts running back in 2020.

One issue is only having five targets in the passing game. Chase Edmonds has really bit into that facet, with 11 targets himself. Drake is still getting 56.4% of the red zone carries, but only has one red zone touchdown. Kyler has two and two other scores came from right outside the 20. The volume hasn’t been an issue since Drake has the fifth-most carries in football. I wonder if the field backs away after being burned last week by him. Drake is an elite GPP back who like Kyler, has likely been on the wrong side of some luck so far. Edmonds is an MME option that has an outcome of 5 DK squarely in his sights.

WR – It took three weeks but DeAndre Hopkins is over $8,000 and he should be. He co-leads the league in targets at 37 which is a 35.9% target share with the Cardinals. The aDOT is 6.6 but with the amount of targets, that’s not something to worry about in the least, especially on DK. He also leads the team with three red zone targets and has the most receiving yards in the NFL. He’s someone who I don’t even look at cornerback matchups that much, because it doesn’t particularly matter.

Andy Isabella paid off in a monster way this past week, but we (I) got extremely lucky with that call. He played under 30 snaps, fourth among receivers on his own team. I don’t particularly understand that with Christian Kirk out, but we need to recognize that’s how the Cardinals coaches treat him. He’s still worth a GPP shot without Kirk, but that’s about it. Kirk himself is moderately interesting as a deep threat but this passing game is so concentrated right now that I don’t want a piece of it outside Nuk.

*Update* Hopkins and Kirk are both game time decisions and Hopkins hasn’t practiced all week. Kirk has been limited but if they’re both our Isabella vaults up the value receiver ranks. The Cardinals won’t have a choice but to play him with both receivers out at that point.

TE – There’s rarely a time where Dan Arnold is a big piece of the game plan. With so many mouths to feed and Kyler’s ability to run it in, I can’t justify playing a tight end with a 7.8% target share and zero red zone targets.

D/ST – The Carolina offensive line has given up eight sacks, but that doesn’t exactly jive with the 15.4% pressure rate given up. Arizona has generated a 21.8% pressure rate and turned it into 11 sacks, which is fourth in the league. The turnovers are lacking with just two fumble recoveries so far and I’m looking at them like a slightly overpriced unit for this slate.

Cash – Kyler, Nuk

GPP – Drake, Edmonds, Kirk or Isabella

Panthers

QB – It appears that Teddy Bridgwater is morphing back into “Checkdown Teddy” with being just 23rd intended air yards per attempt. The offense that planned to feature Christian McCaffrey was always going to have plenty of short targets involved, but this isn’t the best sign for Bridgewater’s fantasy appeal. The good news is he’s eighth in accuracy but only 15 red zone attempts isn’t doing him any favors. His receivers are doing good work because Bridgewater is seventh in passing yards this year, despite the 14th most attempts. He has a talented cast and is cheap. You hope he’s playing catchup all game but he’s not my favorite option in this range. I’d only use him in a game stack myself.

RB – Coming into last week, I was fairly hesitant a Mike Davis getting the volume worth playing him at his salary. I was 100% wrong, as he touched the ball 21 times, racked up 90 yards and scored. The yardage isn’t going to blow you away but if we can get 21 touches for under $6,000, it’s a good play already. It’s better on DK where he’s already tied for second in receptions among running backs. Davis played 76% of the snaps and is roughly about 20% of the target share. Arizona has already been tagged for the fifth-most yards receiving by running backs. Davis is mis-priced by around $800 in my view and is viable in all formats.

WR – After an offseason where every analyst seemed to love D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson continued to be his equal for the third straight week as far as production. Anderson has a much lower aDOT of 8.5 compared to 13.5 for Moore, and has six more receptions. He also has the lead in red zone targets with four. Both players have played most of their snaps on the outside, but Cardinals corner Patrick Peterson isn’t someone to fear anymore with a 2.20 fantasy point per target on 13 targets.

One facet that Moore has over Anderson in spades is air yards. Moore is sixth in the NFL in that metric, and has a 49% share of his team’s air yards. That’s second in NFL so the breakout game really does seem right around the corner here. The Cardinals losing safety Budda Baker to a thumb injury isn’t going to help that secondary one bit. I believe that Anderson is slightly safer for cash, but after three pretty quiet weeks Moore is an explosion play waiting to happen. Curtis Samuel is the fourth man in the pecking order and doesn’t do much for your roster.

TE – Ian Thomas has been a total non-factor with just a 4.7% target share and no red zone targets. There’s not realistic reason to play him.

D/ST – This unit is so devoid of talent that it’s hard to get behind them. Their pressure rate is under 15% and they have two sacks all season long (32nd in the league). Four of the six turnovers have been fumbles, and one of the interceptions was a bad throw by a rookie quarterback. Even with Murray being a little careless with the ball, it’s a tough sell for me.

Cash – Davis, Anderson

GPP – Moore, Bridgewater

Ravens at Washington, O/U of 45.5 (Ravens -13)

Ravens

QB – The final product didn’t look good but Lamar Jackson was a few inches away and a couple key drops away from putting up a big game Monday. As it stands, he didn’t pass for 100 yards and if that worries anyone, so be it. Jackson and the Ravens still have to answer if they can win a big game, especially if they trail but this game doesn’t project to be that. Jackson is at his normal price and we might get a slate where people aren’t eager to roster him coming off a poor island game.

Jackson is still just five yards off the rushing lead among quarterbacks, behind only Kyler. He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown yet which isn’t likely to continue for much longer. He leads the team in red zone attempts with a 42.9% share and that’s not counting his passing numbers. He sits fifth in intended air yards per completion and Washington enters this game banged up. Rookie lineman Chase Young is questionable and that could effect the pass rush. An unpopular Jackson has to be appealing in GPP, if nothing else.

RB – I’m not sure how you can possibly want to play any of these running backs right now. We can typically handle and try to project two-headed monsters in a backfield. The Ravens are rotating three backs in about the worst way possible. Let’s break this down for touches –

Mark Ingram – 26 attempts, 4 RZ, 4 targets, 2 RZ targets, 36.7% snaps

Gus Edwards – 18 attempts, 1 RZ, 0 targets, 26.7% snaps

JK Dobbins – 10 attempts, 2 RZ, 5 targets, 0 RZ targets, 37.2% snaps

I mean….what are we supposed to do with that? I tend to doubt the Ravens need to throw the ball a lot, so I’m not sure Dobbins is the answer. Ingram is too expensive in my eyes in a game that could blow out fairly easily. Mike Davis is the far superior play in my view with a much higher floor/ceiling combo. My “favorite” might well be Edwards. He’s running back minimum and he could get some run in a blowout game. Since he’s not being used in the passing game, his role appears mostly set. It’s best to just fade this situation in everything but MME. Any back that gets under 40% of the snaps has a dangerously low floor.

WR – With the Ravens being one of the lowest volume passing attacks (tied for last), Marquise Brown is the lone play I’m targeting and even then, he’s a GPP only play. The metrics certainly don’t look bad. He has the team lead at a 24% target share and 36.1% of the air yards. The issue is he’s averaging just six targets a game, which is impossible to trust in cash games. He’ll see a mix of Kendall Fuller and Ronald Darby so there’s some upside against Darby, who can turn to toast on any given play. He’s allowing a passer rating over 99 and 1.90 points per target so far. Miles Boykin is the only other receiver into the double digits for targets but offers little ceiling unless he catches a touchdown (he does have two end zone targets).

TE – Woof, Mark Andrews had a tough scene on Monday night. He had multiple drops and just overall played very poorly. The good news is he leads the team with end zone targets, red zone targets and only has one fewer target than Brown. His 17 total targets don’t rank well among tight ends but he’s third in air yards which makes up some of the difference. Washington has given up three touchdowns, tied for second-most to tight ends already. Andrews falls into the same category as Jackson. He’s a great GPP play that folks might not want to go after. One bad game doesn’t change the role or talent.

D/ST – Baltimore is the highest salaried defense this week and it’s tough to argue that. Washington is short their best offensive lineman and have given up 10 sacks, tied for fourth-most. Even after getting Mahomes’d, they’ve given up under 19 points a game and have two takeaways per game. If you spend up, this is a great place to do it.

Cash – Jackson, D/ST

GPP – Andrews, Brown

Washington

QB – Dwayne Haskins is the cheapest starter on the board but I can’t see a reason to play him this week. Haskins is dead last in on target rate at 66%, not to mention a bad throw rate of 27%. He already has five turnovers total, is under 210 passing yards per game and hasn’t even climbed over a 57% completion rate. Aside from the Chiefs game, Baltimore has only allowed two passing touchdowns and nearly 400 of the 849 passing yards allowed came from that game as well. Haskins continues to be a hard pass.

RB – Against a lot of other teams, I’d be looking to play Antonio Gibson. He continues to take over the backfield and is up to 31 carries on the season. Peyton Barber is next with 21 but Gibson has 140 rushing yard to just 36 for Barber. He managed to get three targets last week so we’re hoping that involvement continues. The problem is the matchup, since the Ravens are top 10 in rushing yards allowed to running backs. They’ve only given up one touchdown combined to backs, so we need to keep an eye on Gibson and understand that his week is coming.

WR – As much as I love Terry McLaurin, this spot is tough as well. He owns a 25% target share and 33.9% of the air yards, but the Ravens corners aren’t a fun matchup. Having a total of 25 targets is solid and he has the talent to burn Marcus Peters or Jimmy Smith on a double move but the salary is unappealing on DK. There’s a plethora of cheaper receivers that have my eye and I would only have McLaurin in MME formats. Dontrelle Inman dodged a serious wrist injury, but barely five targets a game doesn’t do a lot against a tough defense.

TE – Logan Thomas doesn’t have the production that we love, but he’s got a lot of other metrics that lead to being a great fantasy tight end. He’s on the field 83% of the time and runs a route on over 90% of drop backs for Haskins. Earning a 24.6% target rate is fantastic too, but he’s only scored a 12/124/1 line through three games. With the lead in red zone targets and tied for end zone targets, he’s still a prime value at the position. Baltimore has allowed the fourth-most DK points to the position. That rank got helped by tackle Eric Fisher and fullback Anthony Sherman catching a touchdown instead of Travis Kelce Monday. Yes, I did bet Kelce to score. Why do you ask?

D/ST – I’m…sort of interested? I mean, Washington does have the second-most sacks on the year but it’s tough to get home on Jackson. Their price really helps and they’re worth some chances in GPP, but not much else. I’d feel less inclined to play them if Young is out.

*Update* Young is out so I’ll pass

Cash – Thomas

GPP – Gibson, D/ST

Chargers at Buccaneers, O/U of 43 (Buccaneers -7)

Chargers

QB – It’s been a pretty admirable start for Justin Herbert’s career rough two games. He’s flirting with a 70% complexion rate and is 10th in on target rate, a plus for a rookie. The 7.1 intended air yards per attempt isn’t anything special but when you have a back like Austin Ekeler, you let him do the work. Herbert has even hit the 300 yard bonus in both games and is 24th in yards despite one fewer game than every quarterback in front of him.

Herbert has been pressured over 23% of the time and the front seven for the Bucs does pose a threat. They’re blitzing over 43% and have 12 sacks already as well. That’s helped their rank against the position with the fourth-fewest yards allowed and more interceptions than touchdowns. I would stay away from Herbert in this one, traveling to a tough spot.

RB – One change that’s been notable with Herbert under center is the targets for Ekeler. He’s recorded 15 total targets and 11 came just last week when the Chargers were in catch-up mode through a good bit of the game. Ekeler now trails only Kamara for receptions among running backs. Additionally, Ekeler is still 12th in the league in carries so this is the volume that everyone had been hoping for in the offseason.

The receiving work might be super important in this game. Tampa’s weakness against the backs is the receiving game. They’ve surrendered 24 receptions, tied for the third-most in the league. Only three teams have allowed more yardage as well. Tampa has been nasty on the ground with the third-fewest yards given up. Ekeler is too expensive to play just for receiving work, and this is not a Joshua Kelley game to me. Just think that Kamara is $900 more in the far superior spot. I don’t think LA wins and it’s a terrible matchup for him, with just five targets in the passing game.

*Update* With the weather looking awful, I’m a little more willing to play Ekeler. If the passing game is struggling, he could see double-digit targets.

WR – After a disappointing Week 1, Keenan Allen has been a monster the past two weeks. He’s racked up a ridiculous 29 targets for 20 receptions, over 200 yards and a score. Herbert loves him and with the rookie throwing to him, Allen has a 36.7% target share and 46.5% of the air yards. That’s a massive share and there’s no real reason to think it’s stopping. His price is just a hair under where it should be to my eyes.

The flip side of that coin is Mike Williams has been invisible. In two weeks, he has all of five targets for a 6.3% share. For perspective, Jalen Guyton has the same amount of targets and basically the same air yards. With Herbert, it’s been a three man band for the passing game and Williams doesn’t have a backstage pass.

*Update* Willams is out and I wish the weather was better because Allen could GOAT. We’ll see what Sunday brings us.

TE – The third member of that band is Hunter Henry. He’s got 15 targets as well with Herbert and a perfectly fine 8.3 aDOT. The one aspect missing so far is is the red zone work, as he’s had zero targets in that portion of the field. I don’t think he’s the most spectacular option at his price, since the upside is potentially limited. For instance, Hockenson is my preferred play at only $200 more. Tampa has only allowed 12 receptions for 139 yards to the position. They’ve face Noah Fant and Jared Cook in two of three games, so that mark does carry a little bit of weight.

D/ST – Tom Brady is the least pressured QB in football and the Chargers pass rush has only generated six sacks with just two turnovers. They also just lost corner Chris Harris so they are down yet another member of their starting secondary. The price is just right in the middle but I’ll likely pass.

Cash – Allen

GPP – Ekeler, Henry, Herbert

Buccaneers

QB – The price continues to be really appealing for Tom Brady. He’s looking more comfortable in the system with each passing week and scored 23.9 DK this past week in a game that wasn’t all that competitive. Tampa has come down to 13th in passing attempts which is a change from last year. However, they are a lot better than last year and don’t need to throw quite as much.

Brady is only 14th in on target rate so far, which is something that I bet will continue to climb the next 13 weeks. He’s also 12th in intended air yards so a huge game does feel like it’s within the realm. The main issues are going to be A. can the Chargers hang in to force a ceiling game and B. how does the absence of Chris Godwin hurt the ceiling? Brady is fine in all formats, but isn’t a major target right now for me.

RB – Sigh….this backfield has been tilting so far. Every week it’s been someone different, with Ronald Jones taking the lead on snaps again in Week 3. He out-snapped Leonard Fournette 35-25 on Sunday and held a 15-9 touch advantage. On the season, Jones is now enjoying a 13 carry lead to go along with an 8-5 ratio of carries in the red zone. Even noting the work in Week 3, neither back was able to score double-digit DK points. With these two splitting carries week-to-week and LeSean McCoy hoarding the targets, no back seems like an optimal play.

*Update* Fournette is out and while I can’t trust RoJo in cash, he should have a ton of work to himself and is way too cheap for his potential role. I do worry we get a McCoy game because that would be just our luck.

WR – Now we get to the fun part because Mike Evans is pretty cheap without Godwin in the lineup. Charger corner Casey Hayward waits on the other side and he’s been sharp so far this year. He’s been targeted 23 times but is giving up under a point per target. The volume might just be too much to ignore at this price. Godwin has been in and out of the lineup so far but has a 12.4% target share and 12.7% of the air yards. It’s been a spread out offense so far with no receiver earning over 17.1% of the targets so far (Evans does lead).

It’s been an adjustment for Evans with his aDOT going from 15.1 in 2019 to 8.6 this year. I can’t say it’s a huge surprise but the upside isn’t exactly the same unless he scores. Evans has a better chance of doing that this week, with three red zone targets for Godwin out of the lineup. I feel perfectly fine with Evans in any format and Scotty Miller is a fine salary play if he’s healthy. As it is, he owns the highest share of air yards in this offense at 26.5%.

TE – The question this week is what you’re buying for the tight end usage. After the week was spent discussing the role for Rob Gronkowski and how he was just here to play tight end, his snaps went up over 90% and he drew seven of his 11 targets on the season. O.J. Howard dropped to a season-low 49% of the snaps but he’s normally only around the 55% mark. With Godwin out, I can see a lot of two tight end sets in this game. Howard still has the red zone lead on Gronkowski and that could have been the squeaky wheel getting the grease style game. Also, Howard is cheaper and might be a touch easier to fit.

D/ST – I really like the play for the defense at their salary. They’ve been a wrecking crew, racking up 12 sacks and getting pressure over 24% of the time. Their blitz rate is second highest in the NFL behind Pittsburgh and I really believe they force a couple mistakes from a rookie QB.

Cash – Evans, D/ST, Howard

GPP – Brady, Miller, Gronkowski

Seahawks at Dolphins, O/U of 53.5 (Seahawks -6.5)

Seahawks

QB – It’s Russell Wilson’s world and we’re just hanging out in it. He technically could have 15 touchdown passes if D.K. Metcalf wasn’t a goof, but the 14 he does have is the NFL record for the first three games of a season. I would argue that he should be the most expensive option at the position and when he’s not, he’s a bargain right now. Only Rivers has a higher completion rate than Wilson but those players are plying different sports right now. Wilson is eighth in intended air yards and leads the league in on target rate. This isn’t even counting the 30 yards he’s averaging on the ground. Lastly, Miami has already given up the fourth-most DK points per game to the position even though they’ve only surrendered four touchdown passes. Giddy. Up.

RB – DK did a solid job in pricing because if Chris Carson misses this game, Carlos Hyde is not just a plug and play option. He’s over $5,000 and that has to make you think a little bit. Hyde only has 16 carries on the season and 25.9% of the snaps. Carson is third in targets on the team, which does help a little bit. Seattle is only 22nd in rush attempts per game and we should expect Travis Homer to be involved as well. I’d just as soon fade Hyde even if Carson is out and find the $400 for Mike Davis.

*Update* Carson looks like he’ll be active but I’d be concerned about re-injury or the Seahawks being careful with him.

WR – One of the more awesome parts about Russ Cooking is we know exactly who to play with him, making him easy to stack (not including salary). Both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have combined for about a 52% target share and a massive 77% of the air yards. Lockett does own the lead in targets at 29 but Metcalf has a sizable lead in air yards at 47%. That’s translated to a 17.2 aDOT for Metcalf so far, fifth among receivers who have at least 10 targets.

What’s a little weird is Metcalf does not have a red zone target and all of his touchdowns have come from outside the 20. Both players come with immense upside every slate, this one included. The Miami secondary is not good and injured right now. Lockett is the cash play, Metcalf is the GPP play since he should face Xavien Howard (1.70 point per target) but I’ll have them both in at least a couple lineups.

TE – Dallas was able to get a pass rush on Wilson and that led to Greg Olsen being a little bit more involved in Week 3. Miami has shown the ability to get pressure at a 25% rate so it’s possible he could replicate his six targets from last week. I don’t love the 77 air yards on 11 targets since he’s not a primary red zone target with just two. There’s better paths to take even with a very affordable salary.

D/ST – Seattle might well be without Jamal Adams, in addition to multiple other members of their secondary. Not only is the price tough to swallow but they are banged up in a major way. I will happily play the Bucs at the same price.

Cash – Russ, Lockett

GPP – GoatCalf, Olsen, Hyde

Dolphins

QB – Dollar for dollar, I believe that Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the best plays on the board this week. Seattle has given up the most passing yards in the league at 1,319. The next closest team? Atlanta…at 1,088. Only the Falcons have allowed more DK points per game because they are tied for the league lead in touchdowns allowed. Fitzpatrick is fifth in on target rate this season, 82.3%. The raw yards don’t look great due to matchups against the Patriots in Week 1 and not throwing a ton against Jacksonville. That’s not going to be the case this week.

Seattle is the second-highest scoring team in the league. Their defense has faced the most passing attempts because they score so much in addition to it being a weakness. The Beard is sixth in completion rate and has a 7.3 intended air yards per attempt, 20th in the league. He is ridiculously cheap and should be throwing 40+ times in this game. He’s likely to be my cash game QB to allow me whatever else I want.

RB – I think he’s only in consideration if Adams misses, but suddenly Myles Gaskin is the man in the Dolphins backfield. He’s just outside the top 20 in carries and averaging over 12 per game. His 16 targets means even if this game plays fast and the Dolphins have to air it out, he should stay involved. Jordan Howard doesn’t even have a target and Matt Breida has two. Gaskin is over a 67% snap share and has relegated the other two to irrelevancy. For all their issues against the run, Seattle has been tough on running backs on the ground. Only the Steelers have allowed fewer rushing yards so they are the definition of a pass funnel. Adams plays a big role in that defense so if he’s out, Gaskin could be really sneaky if his receiving role gets overlooked.

WR – Unsurprisingly, Seattle is the worst team to the receiver position. They are averaging 79.2 DK points against them every game. Dallas is the next closest team at 52.7. Not only are the Seahawks the worst, they are the worst be a country mile. No other team is over 750 yards allowed to receivers, except Seattle at 1,136. If we like FitzMagic, we have to like some of his receiving options as well.

DeVante Parker and Preston Williams have really been neck and neck so far. They have 17 and 14 targets, they have 24% and 22% of the air yards but Parker holds the edge in receptions at 14 to just five for Williams. This is really the perfect game to change that and Williams is so cheap that I’ll have exposure all over the board. Parker comes at a steeper price but there’s no reason to not play him either. Seattle corner Tre Flowers has gotten smacked for a 2.10 points per target and a 13.4 yards per reception. We’ll see how the injuries shake out, but the Seahawks secondary could be without 3-4 starters from Week 1 already. This is a such a smash spot on paper, even Isaiah Ford is on the map. He’s garnered a 15.8% target share and has double-digit receptions already.

TE – If I seemed a little lackluster on the receivers, it’s because of Mike Gesicki. Don’t be fooled by the red “6th” on the DK matchup. Seattle has faced Hayden Hurst, New England tight end and Dalton Schultz so far. Gesicki has spent 69% of his snaps in the slot so far, leads the team in targets, air yard share a 30.8%, red zone targets and end zone targets. He’s been the best player in the passing game and even though he’s over $5,000, the salary saved with Fitzpatrick makes this a prime stack for the week.

D/ST – Even though Russ is getting pressured at a top five rate in football, Miami is likely to give up at least 30 points. They’d need multiple turnovers and sacks to pay off even the lowest price and I won’t go that route.

Cash – Fitzpatrick, Gesicki, Parker

GPP – Williams (close to cash), Ford, Gaskin

Jaguars at Bengals, O/U of 49 (Bengals -3)

Jaguars

QB – The last time we saw Gardner Minshew, he was leaving a bad taste in everyone’s mouth with an 11.2 DK point game against Miami. Don’t discount D.J. Chark missing that game. The Jags can’t afford to be without their number one receiver and just not miss a beat. Minshew is still completing 73.8% of his passes on an 82.9% accuracy rate, fifth in the league. Minshew is right about average for intended air yards at 15th and he’s 19th for intended air yards per completion.

Getting Chark back will help, but the Bengals have actually been fairly solid to opponent passing games. Not only are they top-six in DK points given up, their defense overall is a top 10 DVOA unit. There’s better options in my eyes, though Minshew is capable of a three touchdown game every week in potential garbage time.

RB – Many of us (including myself) didn’t really know who James Robinson was before the Jags released Leonard Fournette. We all know now, as Jacksonville was being totally honest when they said Robinson was part of the reason Fournette was released. He has 64.2% of the team’s rushing attempts at 43 (tied for 12th in the league) and has earned a 10.5% target share. Robinson has five red zone carries and the team only has six total, so he’s the man where it matters most.

One of the reasons I’m liking Fitzpatrick so much outside of his actual matchup is because his salary allows you to fit so much. Robinson is an excellent play since the biggest weakness for the Bengals defense is against running backs. Only the Texans have given up more rushing yards to the position and the four touchdowns are tied for the third-most. Robinson is likely a Core Play this week.

WR – I mentioned the Bengals being a top 10 DVOA defense and it has shown up against the receivers. They’ve allowed the fifth-fewest DK points to the position and just two scores for 402 yards. Bengals corner William Jackson has allowed a touchdown and 2.00 points per target, which doesn’t jive with the overall rank. Darius Phillips has been better with just six receptions allowed on 10 targets for 91 yards.

There’s a good chance that Chark is back but the targets have been really spread out so far. Granted, Chark missed a week but he only has seven targets in the two games he did play. The ball is being spread to Keelan Cole, Laviska Shnault and even Chris Conley. Chark is the alpha but it’s not the best spot and the targets haven’t been massive. I don’t think any player from this corps is must play this week.

TE – Tyler Eifert doesn’t have a huge target share with just 10 through three games, but he does have the red zone to equalize things. He leads with four red zone targets and three end zone targets. It’s fairly easy to see he’s touchdown or bust. He’s scored once for 12.6 DK and his other two games have been under 4.0 DK. He’s the same price as Logan Thomas and Jimmy Graham is $300 more. Both those players have much higher upside than Eifert.

D/ST – I’m a little tempted by Jacksonville. The production isn’t quite there with just three sacks, but the pressure rate is in the top half of the league at 24.2%. The Bengals have given up the most sacks in football already so I can see Jacksonville adding to that mark. I just wish they weren’t $3,000.

Cash – Robinson

GPP – Minshew, D/ST

Bengals

QB – If DK keeps pricing him at the lower end of $6,000, I’m going to keep playing Joe Burrow. He plays in the fifth-fastest offense in football, he’s ninth in passing yards on the second-most attempts and he’s sporting a 5:1 TD:INT ratio through three games. Honestly, what’s not to like with this kid? Provided he can stay upright, he looks like the absolute real deal and has two games above 23 DK already.

He does rank 28th for on target rate, but some of that can still be charged to his missed connections with A.J. Green. There’s going to be bumps in the road for a rookie but with the volume you get, it’s easy to live with some missed throws. Burrow ranks third in attempts inside the 20 and fourth in attempts inside the 10, great for touchdown upside. The Jags have already allowed 762 passing yards and seven passing touchdowns. Burrow is in another great spot.

RB – Joe Mixon is a big question mark on this slate. He’s playing in the same fast offense and he has the sixth-most carries in the league with seven receptions thrown in. Yet, the production has been putrid at under 10 DK points per game. His offensive line is not good at all and he’s only grinding out 3.2 yards per carry. He is so cheap though it’s tough to not like him to some extent. Running backs don’t get this type of volume and just produce bad game after bad game, especially one as talented as Mixon. I have to give Jacksonville a little credit. They’ve faced the sixth-most attempts on the ground but only sit at 257 yards given up. They have surrendered the fifth-most receptions, so Mixon checks in as a great GPP play that hasn’t got it going yet.

WR – By the numbers, Tyler Boyd is priced accurately and is the play from the receiving corps. He has almost caught up to Green for the target lead and he easily leads the team in receptions at 21. Boyd also has racked up 230 yards, with Green being he next closest at 116. The aDOT of 8.3 is more than fine as well. What gets interesting is the potential emergence of Tee Higgins, who popped off for two scores last week.

His workload has increased every week to the point where he played the most snaps of any receiver last week. He also now co-leads in red zone targets and is second on the team for end zone targets. He’s already second on the team in air yards, despite being targeted just 15 times. If he’s on the way up, Higgins is far too cheap. He’s moving all over the field, playing just 20% in the slot. Both Tre Herndon and C.J. Henderson for the Jaguars are at 1.20 points per target or higher. I rank the receivers Boyd, Higgins and Green for this week with salaries included.

TE – Drew Sample broke my heart last week with one reception for one yard. I was ready to just assume he blocked all day and had no opportunity but that actually wasn’t the case. He played over 60 snaps, ran 34 routes and was out in the slot or further 15 times. He just didn’t get the ball whatsoever. It makes sense to put together Higgins coming on as a prime reason for Sample heading down in involvement, so I don’t see myself going back to the well this week.

D/ST – I can’t do it, even with the flaws Jacksonville has. Cincinnati has a pressure rate under 15% with just an 11% hurry rate on the quarterback. Minshew has been pressured just an average amount at 22.8% so this play doesn’t make a ton of sense.

Cash – Burrow, Boyd

GPP – Higgins, Mixon, Green

Browns at Cowboys, O/U of 56 (Cowboys -4.5)

Browns

QB – Could we actually get a game where Baker Mayfield throws the ball a little bit? After Week 1 where they got beat down, Mayfield has thrown 23 passing attempts in both of the next two games. This game could force him to let it loose a little bit and it’s a great spot to do it. Cleveland doesn’t play fast with just the 25th offense in pace, but Dallas is first and can hang points. They rank eighth coming into this one.

Mayfield is only 14th in play action passing attempts and 14th in yards at 167. That’s surprising with how good their running game has been but that’s the way it’s gone with this offense. Mayfield is only 28th in passing yards but that comes with the 27th rank in attempts. The Cowboys are the third-worst team to the position and tied for the most touchdown passes given up. You have to pick a game script here. If you think Cleveland has to run and gun a bit to keep up, Mayfield is a value. If you think they ground and pound the Cowboys, it’s best to skip him again.

RB – When you sit seventh in attempts and fourth in rushing yards on the season, you have to be in play just about every week. Nick Chubb is $7,000 flat and there’s really no reason he shouldn’t be. He’s not without his flaws, as Kareem Hunt has more red zone carries by one and targets by an 11-3 margin. Chubb has made the most of his red zone chances with four rushing scores already and he’s ripping off nearly a 6.0 yards per carry.

Dallas has already allowed the 10th most rushing yards to backs on the season and Chubb is in a prime spot. If they can, Cleveland is likely to run the ball a ton in this game. Just like Mayfield, picking a game script is key. If they have to pass, Hunt is likely the better choice. Chubb won’t be totally uninvolved and if the Browns can control the game, he’s got 100+ yards and at leas a touchdown in his sights.

WR – If Odell Beckham can’t get it done here…. The Cowboys are down two linebackers (another checkmark for Chubb) and multiple corners. On a normal season that didn’t involve a nearly historically bad Seahawks defense, Dallas would be the worst team against receivers. OBJ likely squares off against Trevon Diggs, who has given up 235 yards on 23 targets so far. As a team, they’ve given up over 600 yards and seven scores (most in football). Beckham has over 43% of the team’s air yards and has a 28.2% target share. The aDOT is 14.2 and this is the game for him. I’m on the fence for cash games, but $5,800 is too cheap for the ceiling in this game.

I sort of like Jarvis Landry, but I don’t believe he has nearly the same ceiling and we might want to come up $700 for Beckham. Landry is under 70% of the snaps and has just 13 targets on the season with just 16.7% of the air yards. He does have the lead in receptions at 12 but has yet to see a red zone target. With the Cowboys down Chidobe Awuzie, the passing game has potential that he really hasn’t seen yet.

TE – I just can’t with Austin Hooper. I mean, he’s just been such an afterthought in this offense. His target share is under 13% and he has one red zone and end zone target. Hunt has more targets than he does. He’s not even that cheap so I’ll take my chances and full fade him without much of a thought.

D/ST – With Cleveland generating a 22.3% pressure rate and a 13.7% hurry rate, I sort of understand the argument. Prescott has only been brought down six times even though they have missed Tyron Smith and La’el Collins recently. I’ll likely skip the Browns here.

Cash – Chubb, Hunt

GPP – Beckham, Mayfield, Landry

Cowboys

QB – Dak Prescott is always going to be in play since he’s the league leader in passing yards and always has the ability to run the ball in for a score as well. What’s a bit surprising is Dak leads the league even though he’s 21st in on target rate (he does lead in attempts). Until Dallas stops being the fastest offense in the league, it’s hard to find reasons not to play Dak. Even at his salary, 3x is only about 22 DK and he’s been under that once, Week 1. His defense is not great and they are still 18th in rushing attempts, speaking to the pace they are playing at. Cleveland is in the bottom 10 against quarterbacks in DK points with eight passing scores allowed already. Dak is a fine play in all formats.

RB – I’ve mentioned the pace for Dallas multiple times because it might seem like I’m only about the passing game this week and that’s really not true. Ezekiel Elliott ranks third in carries across the league and is just under 20 a game. He trails only Kamara in targets for running backs and is tied for third in receptions. Even in a crowded offense, Zeke is second in targets. It comes as no surprise, but Zeke has 15 red zone carries which is far and away the lead on the team. Much like Dak, Zeke is a fine play and is under $8,000 for once.

WR – I’m sorry but I’m flat out not buying the Cedrick Wilson game meaning anything going forward. He played under 30% of the snaps and there’s no real reason to chase him since he had a combined seven snaps the first two weeks. The only way that changes is if CeeDee Lamb happens to miss this game. He was a little banged up in the Seattle game but it doesn’t appear Lamb will miss this week right now.

We have to assume that Amari Cooper will see Browns corner Denzel Ward through a significant chunk of this game. Ward has been targeted 18 times but only allowed seven receptions for a 1.00 point per target. On those seven receptions, he’s allowed under 50 yards so maybe it’s a Michael Gallup game again. Greedy Williams could make his debut after a shoulder injury has held him out the first three weeks. In 2019, he allowed a 1.40 point per target so he would be the slightly easier matchup. Gallup has 30% of the air yards in the Dallas offense and is 10th in the NFL. I’d rank them Gallup, Cooper, Lamb for this spot.

TE – Color me shocked that Dalton Schultz didn’t catch another nine passes in Week 3. Look, he’s going to be a part of this passing game but there are so many mouths to feed it’s hard to get excited. In fairness, Schultz has carved out a 14.4% target share but that’s with a 10 target game under his belt. Half of his 20 came in one game, and I’m always wary about that. Cleveland is poor to the position, with three scores already allowed. The only good tight end they’ve played has been Mark Andrews and the Bengals tight ends ripped them. Schultz is in play but not likely a target for me.

D/ST – Dallas is just missing too many pieces for me to take seriously, especially at the price.

Cash – Dak, Zeke, Lamb

GPP – Gallup, Cooper, Schultz

Vikings at Texans, O/U of 54.5 (Texans -4.5)

Vikings

QB – I can’t ever really find a reason to play Kirk Cousins. He sits 29th in attempts on the season, four attempts behind Justin Herbert. That’s the same Herbert that has played one fewer game than Cousins. He’s 26th in passing yards and is on the wrong side of a 5:6 D:INT ratio. I mean, this man is averaging 207 yards per game. I can’t possibly get behind playing him this week. The 21.4 DK points he scored last week seems like his absolute ceiling. That’s technically about a 4x score but the ceiling just doesn’t match other options.

RB – Someone explain what in the world this price is for Dalvin Cook. He’s the exact same price as last week despite a 29.9 DK point game from Cook. The Texans are the only team who has given up over 500 yards rushing to backs already this season with three touchdowns. My goal might well be to fit Kamara, Cook and a value back that we haven’t hit yet. It would be tough to not get after James Robinson in a great spot, but Cook is far too cheap here. This isn’t a game that should get away from the Vikings, leading to a full workload for Cook.

WR – One aspect we need to figure out is how real the Justin Jefferson game from last week was. Jefferson’s snaps were the career high mark, just under 80%. He’s kicked into the slot almost 49% of the time so far which lines up with how Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs meshed last year. Jefferson does have a 24.2% of the air yards but it’s still under 200. The aDOT is 12.1 but I still worry about the volume here. Given the few opportunities in this offense, the floor is so low for both he and Thielen. Even last week, Thielen needed a touchdown to save his day from not being under six DK points. I would rather fade if Jefferson is going to be at all chalky and Thielen just doesn’t appeal to me that much.

TE – Just like the receivers, I have no interest in Kyle Rudolph. He has six targets on the season. Even at a low price you need a touchdown and he’s still likely to be under 10 DK points.

D/ST – If the Vikings had something resembling the full strength of their defense, I might be interested. They are down a star linebacker, a star lineman and multiple cornerbacks. Minnesota has all of three sacks on the season so even with the Texans giving up he highest pressure rate in the league and 13 sacks, I’m going to pass.

Cash – Cook

GPP – Thielen, Jefferson

Texans

QB – We don’t always want to base everything off three games, because if we did Deshaun Watson would be pretty overpriced. He’s not putting up a ton of stats with Nuk in Arizona, sitting with just four passing touchdowns and one rushing through three weeks. The on target rate hasn’t been anything special either, just 75.8% for 23rd in the league. He is 10th for intended air yards, which leads us to think hopefully better days will be ahead.

The gameplans haven’t helped him a whole lot yet. He’s 22nd in attempts with only 95 total. Houston is 27th in passing attempts so far, which makes perfect sense when you sign a quarterback to a monster extension. I mean, you already traded his best receiver away so I guess this is par for the course. Houston is a least league average in pace but Watson has all of nine attempts in the red zone. That’s also 27th. About the only positive for Watson is Minnesota has given up the third-most passing yards in the league. He’s faced a gauntlet so far, if it doesn’t happen this week we need to sound some alarms.

RB – The question with David Johnson is just of he’s going to be efficient enough to roster this week. The volume has been here as much as it can be for a 0-3 team with 35 carries. Heck, last week he averaged 1.8 yards per carry and sill got 13 attempts. Duke Johnson might be back this week which could cut into the work just a bit, but not enough for me to be worried about. Da. Johnson is priced under $6,000 but he’s really just a guy so far. He’s a great GPP play with the other backs in great spots in this range, but I can’t see myself playing him. Minnesota has been ripped on the ground as well with over 400 yards allowed, but I’m not sure I’m clicking Johnson this week.

WR – One route that I’m interested in for GPP is to stack the receivers. We talked earlier the Vikings are likely to miss some of their corners from Week 1, and that was easily a weak spot even before injuries. Both Mike Hughes and Cameron Dantzler sat at 2.80 points per target before injuries. Holton Hill is better but is at 2.00 flat.

This is a great spot for Will Fuller, rebounding in Week 3 after a goose egg in Week 2. He actually trails Brandin Cooks in targets at an 18-15 rate and air yards by 30 yards, but I do prefer Fuller. He recorded no stats in Week 2 so it’s like he missed a game. He is still the number one receiver in this offense. Randall Cobb is third in targets, but I’d prefer to swing for upside with Fuller and Cooks. I don’t think mixing in a double stack here is the worst idea. We’d be shooting to be on the front edge of a Houston passing game explosion.

TE – I’d roll the dice with Jordan Akins ahead of Kyle Rudolph at the exact same price. He’s not a target hog in this offense, but that happens when it’s a low volume unit. Akins is the lead dog at the position with a 78.2% snap rate to 44.2% for Darren Fells. The Vikings have allowed the seventh-most yards to tight ends but no touchdowns yet. That’s got to change at some point.

D/ST – Kirk Cousins isn’t that far behind Watson in pressure rate at 34.4% and the Texans do have seven sacks. They are under a 20% pressure rate on a 35% blitz rate, eighth-highest in the league. They’ve faced Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger to start the year. They’re better than the 1.7 DK points per game they average.

Cash – Fuller

GPP – Watson, Cooks, Akins, Johnson, D/ST

Giants at Rams, O/U of 48 (Rams -12.5)

Giants

QB – Wow, what an egg laid by the Giants last week. San Francisco was playing the second straight East Coast game (they did stay on the East Coast, but still). They were practically a JV team, down to their second-string players in many positions. Yet Daniel Jones and the Giants couldn’t even muster up a fight. Jones himself continues to just be hounded by turnovers, already accounting for six this year and he hasn’t scored a touchdown of any sort since Week 3.

The Rams haven’t exactly shut down quarterbacks so far with 819 passing yards allowed. It should be noted that they’ve faced Dak Prescott and Josh Allen already, not an easy time. I didn’t forget Carson Wentz, I deliberately left him off the list. Jones himself is buried at 27th in on target rate and 17th for intended air yards. The only thing that could save him is he’s fourth in red zone attempts, but has a 9-20 performance. I’ll find $300 for Fitzpatrick.

RB – I believe this is going to be changing, but he running back situation for the Giants was sort of a mess last week. Devonta Freeman was brought in as a free agent with some money on the deal, so he’s going to be the man to play. We just don’t know if it’s this week. He only played 15 snaps last week and had five attempts. That was only one behind Wayne Gallman for the lead in touches for the backs, and that’s a sad state of affairs right there. I’m not ready to dive into this dysfunctional of an offense where the floor is under five DK points.

WR – If I don’t like the quarterback, I’m not likely to want the receivers either. Jalen Ramsey of the Rams hasn’t been elite with a 1.60 points per target given up, but can you say you feel good about Darius Slayton? I certainly can’t. Slayton is the clear leader in air yards for New York with a 34.7% mark while no other player is over 14.4%. Slayton only has 12 receptions despite 22 targets for the team lead and has a tough spot.

Golden Tate has lived in the slot but the aDOT of 6.8 isn’t anything spectacular. To make that work, you need a ton of targets and Tate is averaging six per game. He should match up against Troy Hill, who has been targeted 25 times and allows a 1.90 point per target. If Tate scores, he should pay off his salary. Just remember that the Giants have scored 12.7 points a game, 31st in the league ahead of only the Jets.

TE – I’ll admit I’m lost with Evan Engram. He’s tied for sixth in targets among all tight ends. That’s the volume we always love. He’s 14th in receptions with no scores and has a grand total of 96 yards on those 20 targets. That’s abysmal. He’s the TE25 in PPR settings! That’s about rock bottom for a healthy Engram. It’s not all on Jones either as 14 of his 20 targets have been deemed catchable. He’s still inside the top 10 in pricing and he’s not someone I’m looking at strongly here.

D/ST – They just got mauled by Nick Mullens, Jerick McKinnon, Jeff Wilson and rookie Brandon Aiyuk. No thank you.

Cash – None

GPP – Tate, maybe Engram

Rams

QB – Jared Goff might only rank 20th for on target rate, but he’s completing about 70% of his passes and averaging close to 290 passing yards a game so far. Only Dak Prescott and Drew Brees have had more of their passing yards come from YAC from the receivers. However, that’s not a bad thing. Goff is the ball distributor and leads the league on play action attempts. Only Josh Allen has more yards in that play type, so everything is working for the Rams offense. They are seventh in the league in points and Goff is driving that bus. New York might be about middle of the road in passing yards allowed, but they also just got shredded by Nick Mullens. Goff’s price is a hair high just because I don’t believe he’s going to have to push the envelope in this one.

RB – The best way to get exposure to this offense is an underpriced Darrell Henderson. With Cam Akers not practicing with a rib injury, Henderson has seized the reins in this backfield. He’s had 36 touches combined the past two games and is at a 5.7 YPC. The second-year player seems to have a much better grasp of the system in 2020. After Week 1, Henderson has out-carried Malcolm Brown 32-18 and has the edge in red zone carries 8-3. Even targets are slanted to Henderson at 6-2. This is a great example of being able to deal with a two-headed monster in the backfield. Sure, Brown will get some touches. Henderson is the man we want in every facet and is underpriced to a severe degree in this role and this matchup.

*Update* Akers is out, full steam ahead on Henderson

WR – The Giants have four members of their secondary on IR and three more that are questionable. The duo of Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods should be able to have their way with just about anyone on that side of the field. Kupp plays the slot far more than Woods, so that likely leaves Woods on James Bradberry a bit more. Considering Bradberry has allowed 193 yards and two touchdowns on 24 targets, I wouldn’t shy away from Woods.

In fact, he’s actually cheaper on DK which is interesting. Kupp holds the slight advantage in targets at 21-19 but they both have two red zone targets. Both aDOTS are under 6.0 but Woods does have the slight rushing upside too. He has seven attempts to Kupp’s two. I slightly prefer Woods on DK just for price, but you can’t go wrong with either player here. The only concern is the same as Goff – do the Giants put up enough of a fight to force a ceiling game?

TE – I’m having a tough time getting behind Tyler Higbee as a play. Yes, he has monster upside. He showed it against the Eagles with three touchdowns. However, he’s totaled 15 DK points in his other two games combined and we don’t have to go too far to understand why. He’s not running a whole lot of routes with only a 56.7% rate. That ranks 26th among tight ends and isn’t a great sign for week-to-week playability. Combine that with just a 12.9% target share and Higbee is GPP only. The Giants have only allowed 123 yards to tight ends, but Jimmy Graham is the best one they’ve played so far. Higbee’s price is too high for me.

D/ST – The Rams are right with the Ravens as far as the best spend-up option. We know that Jones coughs up the ball routinely. The only small knock is the Rams aren’t getting a ton of pressure at 19.8%. They have seven sacks so I don’t think the pressure rate is super important here. We know that turnover upside is massive and the Rams could score a defensive TD.

Cash – Henderson, Woods, Kupp

GPP – Goff

Bills at Raiders, O/U of 52.5 (Bills -3)

Bills

QB – If it wasn’t for Russell Wilson, Josh Allen would be the front-runner for MVP right now. He has been beyond what anyone could have thought with over 1,000 passing yards and a 10:1 TD:INT ratio. Sure, he needs to hold onto the ball a little more as far as fumbles since he has three. That’s minor compliant with his play to this point. The rushing has actually come down a little bit after Week 1 with just 27 yards combined the last two weeks. It doesn’t matter with how he’s throwing the ball. Allen is fourth in on target rate and fifth in air yards. He’s earned that lofty salary.

RB – With Zack Moss looking like he’ll be back in the fold this week, we’re back to not really wanting to play either him or Devin Singletary. With the pricing difference, I’d rather just take Moss and hope he scores once or twice. Moss is only 10 carries behind Singletary for the team lead and only one carry behind for the red zone lead. Singletary does hold a sizable lead for the target share at 15-4 but that’s not enough to want to pay $5,900 for him. Singletary has only played 66% of the snaps to 45.3% for Moss and that’s skewed with the game missed. Moss would be my favorite, but I likely continue to avoid it since Allen has six red zone rushes himself.

WR – With the chance that John Brown could miss this game, that leaves us with a value choice and a top shelf choice. Stefon Diggs is under $7,000 and already leads the team with a 25% target share. He and Brown are in a virtual tie for air yards at about 29% and Diggs is being used in the red zone with a team-leading five targets. It’s hard to see those numbers going down with the absence of Brown.

You can turn to Cole Beasley, who is in the slot about 81% of the time. Beasley saw seven targets and turned it into 100 yards, so there is some safety there. He’s already at a 17.9% target share with Brown in. Beasley is likely the comfort blanket for Allen in this game. We also saw Gabriel Davis burst onto the scene last week and he’s barely above minimum. He only saw four targets but he played 74% of the snaps and has a week to get into the game plan. He’d likely see Trayvon Mullen on the other side, who has allowed a 1.60 point per target. He could be a great way to save some salary this week, though Beasley is the better cash play.

TE – The fact that Tyler Kroft caught two touchdowns last week is just randomness of football. There’s no real need to go after he or Dawson Knox. Kroft does have four red zone looks but he has five total targets. He is the stricter definition of “touchdown or bust” tight end. I suppose Knox could earn more of a role if Brown is out, but it would be very thin ice to stand on. He only has six targets though two games and one red zone look.

D/ST – Buffalo is a fine defense, but they haven’t been quite as good as last year. They’re giving up over 25 points a game but they do have six sacks. I don’t always love playing defenses against the Raiders because they’re safe with the ball. The Rams at $200 more vs Daniel “Turnover” Jones just makes so much more sense.

Cash – Allen, Diggs, Beasley (if no Brown)

GPP – Moss, Davis (if no Brown)

Radiers

QB – I really almost never click the button next to Derek Carr’s name. There’s just such limited upside as evidenced he’s been under 18 DK points in two games and has yet to exceed 22.6. He’s got the second best on target rate in the league but he’s 24th in intended air yards. He just doesn’t push the ball down the field and his receivers are banged up again. Buffalo has been surprisingly leaky against QB’s so far with the fourth-most passing yards given up. Still, they’ve only allowed five touchdown passes and I don’ think Carr score more than the normal 18-22 range.

RB – Buffalo has actually slipped to 24th in defensive DVOA but they have been good to the running backs so far. They have only allowed a total of 356 yards on the ground and through the air with three total scores. That’s been good for 11th against the position but I can’t argue that Josh Jacobs won’t get the touches. Even in a pretty horrible spot against the Patriots, he still had 19 touches. If he had found the end zone, his day would have been much more palatable. We honestly won’t get Jacobs under $7,000 all that often so he’s well in play for GPP with 78 total touches already through three games.

WR – Last week, we exploited the slot with Cooper Kupp as a way to avoid Tre White and it worked out very well. Hunter Renfrow isn’t nearly as good as Kupp, but he plays the slot almost 73% of the time so far this year with three red zone targets. Taron Johnson patrols that area for Buffalo and he’s allowed 18 receptions on 28 targets for 250 yards and a score. That’s translated to a 1.80 point per target and Renfrow shapes up to lead the Raiders receivers. Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards are both doubtful and Nelson Agholor is…..well, Nelson Agholor. Renfrow turned nine targets last week into a 6/84/1 line. He has similar upside this week and is a really cheap play for a Raiders team that is likely playing from behind.

TE – Nobody should be surprised that the Patriots shut down Darren Waller. They always make the effort to take away your best weapon. He gets a bit of an easier time based on points against this week, but be a little careful. Most of the production against the Bills came from Mike Gesicki going bonkers. However, linebackers Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds were out that game. Milano is not on the injury report and Edmunds is questionable. If they’re both in, I’d leave Waller more for GPP. If Edmunds is out, you can move Waller into cash games. He easily leads the team with 28 targets and four red zone looks.

D/ST – Allen might fumble the ball a bit, but there is zero upside here. Vegas has the fourth-worst pressure rate and just three sacks all year.

Cash – Renfrow

GPP – Jacobs, Waller

Patriots at Chiefs, O/U of 53 (Chiefs -7)

Patriots

QB – This could well be the late day hammer game with Cam Newton and his offense traveling to Kansas City. Cam was pretty quiet last week with just 12 DK points and under 164 passing yards. The running backs did all the work, but this game shouldn’t follow suit. I’d be surprised if the script didn’t follow more of the Seattle game, where there’s plenty of points and Newton has to throw a good bit. Newton really hasn’t had to push the ball very much yet, as he’s 28th for intended air yards. His accuracy leaves something to be desired as well sitting at 24, but he makes up for it being third in rushing yards among QB’s. With the price drop and the projected game script, Newton is in play in all formats.

RB – James White is back with the team and he has to be the favorite play out of the backfield. The monster Rex Burkhead game was partly just due to circumstance and White is the man when it comes to the passing game. It’s a little difficult to go over snaps. White only played one week and the Patriots were in control of the whole game. Now that they face a more formidable opponent, you would have to assume White and Burkhead do no worse than split the snaps. If that happens, White should take the target lead out of the backfield. To his credit, Burkhead does have 16 targets but I’m just not thinking that was the plan. I truly believe it’s buyer beware with him. KC has only faced 16 targets from the backs but have given up 174 yards, seventh-most.

WR – With Newton not needing to throw the ball a whole lot so far, the receiver production has been volatile. Julian Edelman has had one monster game and two very poor games, but this one should tilt to the good side. Edelman is playing mostly in the slot like usual and has 53% of his team’s air yards. That is the highest mark in the league and he’s the only player with over a 50% share. He will likely face some Tyrann Mathieu out of the slot, which is no easy task. I still think he gets his and am totally fine in any format.

On the outside, N’Keal Harry will square off with Rashad Fenton who has been targeted 14 times, but has only allowed eight receptions for 88 yards. Harry is the leading target in the red zone as well with six targets for a 35% share. The air yards aren’t impressive but 24% isn’t terrible with Edelman hogging everything. He is cheap enough to take a stab and the wild card is Damiere Byrd. The only time he’s shown up is the Seattle game, but he leads with an 89.8% snap share.

TE – Ryan Izzo has five targets on the year. That’s about all I can say there.

D/ST – I don’t play defenses against Patrick Mahomes, especially over $3,000.

Cash – Cam, Edelman

GPP – White, Harry, Byrd

Chiefs

QB – Mahomes and his weapons (I’m talking directly to Eric Fisher and Anthony Sherman) destroyed the vaunted Ravens defense on Monday night and there’s no real reason to let the Patriots scare you here. Mahomes isn’t even $7,500 this week and that’s just a mis-price. He shouldn’t be under $8,000 on any slate and New England has lost some important pieces in that defense. When they’ve faced a good offense, they got scorched. Mahomes is already fifth in passing yards and he’s thrown nine touchdowns with no picks, even adding a rushing score. Play him at will in this matchup.

RB – The volume has been incredible for Clyde Edwards-Helaire as he sits fourth in carries and tied for third in targets. He’s also fifth in red zone carries, so he’s getting everything we could have hoped as a rookie. His price has come down $1,000 since the last time we saw him on a main slate and if James Robinson winds up being very popular, Clyde is an incredible pivot right off him. Even in a very tough spot against Baltimore, he ground out 18.4 DK without a touchdown. The crowded offense is a concern for the scoring but he volume is among the fantasy elite and the price is too low.

WR – Now comes a fun matchup. Tyreek Hill should see the majority of Pats corner Stephon Gilmore, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year. Now, Gilmore doesn’t look great by the numbers this year. He’s allowed 14 receptions, 210 yards and a TD. The core game from Metcalf but under 90 yards came from him. Gilmore is averaging 2.10 points per target so far and he might have a tough time with the speed of Hill. He owns 33.4% of the air yards in this offense so he’s an absolutely elite GPP play this week.

Sammy Watkins really seems cheap as well here with a 74.6% snap share, including missing some time in the Chargers game. He’s third in targets and leads in red zone targets. Watkins does draw what looks to be a tougher assignment with J.C. Jackson. He’s allowed a 1.90 points per target but has only been targeted 14 times. With Kansas City, I’m not sweating the matchups all that much. MeCole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson are both around 50% of the snaps and can’t be trusted in anything but large-field GPP.

TE – There’s nothing wrong with playing Travis Kelce, but I’m not super likely to pay up unless it’s in a stack. He does lead the team with a 23% target share and is second in air yards at about 20%. The Patriots giving up the fifth-fewest DK points per game to tight ends does carry some weight. They’ve faced Gesicki and Waller, but the Chiefs offense is a far more varied attack than the other ones. Kelce is still a good play, but not needed in cash at all.

D/ST – If I’d play either defense, it’s the Chiefs. They do have the fourth-highest pressure rate and they blitz 38.9% of the time, which could confuse Cam a little here and there. It could also just flush him out of the pocket, so I’ll find other options.

Cash – Mahomes, CEH

GPP – Hill, Kelce, Watkins

Core Four (Cash Game Based)

Kamara, Henderson, Fitzpatrick, Renfrow

Renfrow is the salary saver in this lineup and I’m torn for my third running back spot. It’s down to Robinson or Cook, and then it depends on how to build the receiving corps after that. Renfrow opens things up in a great game script and stays away from White. One thing that sticks out this week is the amount of games that are over 50 for the over/under. It should be a fun week.

Game Stacks

Seahawks/Dolphins – Russ, DK, Lockett, Fitzpatrick, Parker, Gesicki, Williams

Saints/Lions – Kamara, Golladay, possibly Michael Thomas, Brees, Jones, Stafford

Patriots/Chiefs – Mahomes, Hill, CEH, Edelman, Kelce, White, Watkins, Cam

Vikings/Texans – Watson, Fuller, Cook, Thielen, Cooks, Jefferson, Cobb

Browns/Cowboys – Dak, Beckham, Gallup, Zeke, Chubb, Hunt, Lamb, Cooper, Baker

Jaguars/Bengals – Burrow, Boyd, Higgins, Robinson, Mixon, AJG, Minshew

Team Stacks

Bills – Allen, Diggs, Beasley or Brown – Runback with Renfrow

Cardinals – Kyler, Nuk, Drake – Runback with Davis or Moore

Ravens – Jackson, Andrews, Brown – Runback with Thomas

Buccaneers – Brady, Evans, Howard maybe RoJo or Miller – Runback with Allen

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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