NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 3

NFL Game by Game Breakdown: Week 3

Week 2 treated us very well as a lot of things went right once again! It would have helped if Derrick Henry has done some work but you can’t get it all right. If your lineup made it through the day without an injury, you were likely in a good spot. We’ve got 13 games to get through so let’s get kicked off for NFL Game By Game Breakdown: Week 3!

Raiders at Patriots, O/U of 48 (Patriots -5.5)

Raiders

QB – He is the butt of many jokes, but Derek Carr isn’t the worst option on some weeks. He doesn’t turn the ball over and he’s got more weapons this year, even if he’s overthrowing them. Carr rebounded from a slow start to throw for over 280 yards and three touchdowns on Monday night, but the matchup is still on the difficult side. Just because Russell Wilson can shred the New England defense doesn’t mean Carr can do the same. He’s just 26th in intended air yards but he is fourth in on target rate. My fear is what happens if the Patriots neutralize Darren Waller? Can Carr put up a good game if they do? Those are questions better left answered on someone else’s roster.

RB – Did you know that Josh Jacobs is currently second in targets on the Raiders? Waller is a monster, with a 38.7% share and 24 overall but Jacobs has nine, Henry Ruggs has eight. That leaves Jacobs tied for seventh in targets and tied for fifth in receptions. When you add in the second-most rushing attempts on the season, you have a volume monster.

He is the RB4 in salary but it’s still only a little over $7,000. Despite a matchup that features a New England defense that has only allowed 184 yards on the ground, he feels slightly cheap. He ground out 13.5 DK against the Saints and that was without scoring. Only Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry and Christian McCaffrey have more red zone carries than Jacobs early on. He could actually be fairly sneaky if the Raiders can keep this one close traveling on a short week.

WR – I wouldn’t get too suckered in by the green in the matchup column here for the receiving corps. Not only has no receiver from the Raiders stood out yet, New England is better than they looked Sunday night by a long shot. I still don’t mind taking some shots here and there with Ruggs. He’s got speed for days and he’s playing a decent amount in the slot, almost 38% of the time. Patriots corner Stephon Gilmore has played just 6.8% of his snaps in the slot, so Ruggs could avoid him a little bit. With an aDOT of 18.1, it’s not a secret where the Raiders are targeting him. Every other receiver is at five targets or fewer, and are a tough sell. I suppose Hunter Renfrow could take on a bigger role if Waller gets stifled, but I’m not sure there’s any upside there.

*Update* Ruggs is out, but I’m still quite leery of tangling with the Patriots in New England with any weapon depending on Carr.

TE – Waller absolutely dominated Monday night, scoring 31 DK points while catching 12 passes for 103 yards and a score. I’m hard pressed to believe he gets close to that this week. New England is going to make him a focal point of their defense, for right reasons. We saw Waller cook safety Malcolm Jenkins on multiple occasions, so Bill Belichick might well use a safety and linebacker here. He’s been so good taking away a team’s primary weapon over the years, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Waller is held in check. I’ll likely stay off him and wait for another week.

D/ST – Not a chance against the Patriots and a resurrected Cam Newton.

Patriots

QB – His team may have lost but Cam Newton reminded the world when he’s healthy, he is a stud quarterback in this league. He’s already the QB5 in salary and it’s interesting when looking at the salaries this week. The top five options are inside the top eight in rushing yards for QB’s. Perhaps DK is finally catching up on how much of a Konami code rushing yards are for QB’s. To be fair, every single one is also averaging over 30 DK points per game so far as well and four are in the top eight in passing yards. Anyways, let’s get back to Cam.

His completion rate is 71.4% and he’s already leading the position in rushing attempts. On top of that, he’s logged 11 red zone rushing attempts which is 64.7% of the chances. With his upside on the ground and passing potential against a weaker Raiders secondary, Cam is in play in all formats. If we spend up, I do want to get to Russell Wilson but we’ll get to him.

RB – It’s early in the week to know if James White will play after the passing of his father in a car accident. As far as on the field, White is the only back I’m interested in if he’s active or it’s Rex Burkhead. If you’re playing a back for the Patriots, they need to be able to catch the ball. Cam is the goal line back so the touchdown equity is just not going to be there for anyone in this backfield. When James was out Sunday night, Burkhead played 71% of the snaps and saw six targets. He did nothing with his six rushing attempts with just two yards, but he is running back minimum. If we get double-digit touches at this price, we need to at least consider him.

*Update* White will not be active for this game, so Burkhead is at least in play in GPP. The issue is if Vegas can’t keep up, it hurts the PPR upside and he likely doesn’t get red zone work.

WR – Through two weeks, Julian Edelman is dispelling some notions that he’s just a short range receiver. His 12.9 aDOT is fairly impressive, especially since N’Keal Harry sits at 5.5 yards so far. Both these receivers are tied for 18 targets a piece, but Edelman holds the 223-99 edges in air yards. It shows in the production as well since Edelman sits at 236 yards and Harry is only at 111. The difference in production is worth the difference in salary as Edelman is clearly the man to target of the receiving corps as the main piece.

The wildcard is Damiere Byrd. He actually leads the receivers in snaps at 118 and played a significant role Sunday night. After a Week 1 where he wasn’t targeted at all, Byrd was targeted nine times in Seattle. The game script is important to note as this game was very competitive and saw New England playing from behind in the second half. Still, Byrd is minimum priced and is at least in play for GPP if nothing else. The aDOT is 10.3 so there is some potential here.

TE – The Patriots offense has not used Devin Asiasi at all year as far as targets go and Ryan Izzo sits at four targets after two games. With Cam being the battering ram at the goal line, the “hope for a TD” angle doesn’t even have a high chance of success. New England is also 23rd in passing attempts per game so there’s not much of a reason to go this route.

D/ST – The price really isn’t all that bad and I can’t say I have a major problem with them. Some of their losses on the defensive side were shown on Sunday night, but the talent levels between Russ and Derek Carr are significant. Carr also doesn’t turn the football over much since he’s allergic to taking chances down the field. The Pats were gifted an interception for a score Sunday and played Ryan Fitzpatrick Week 1. They’ve only sacked the QB three times so far. They’re just average for me.

Cash – Cam, Edelman

GPP – Byrd, Harry, Burkhead or White

Bears at Falcons, O/U of 47.5 (Falcons -3)

Bears

QB – It’s never a good sign when an NFL quarterback isn’t completing even 60% of his passes. That is Mitchell Trubisky, in what is a make or break year. His own receiver is on Twitter liking tweets about seeing just a handful of catchable balls. Even with all the flaws in Trubisky’s game, and they are legion…I’m not sure I can turn away from this matchup.

The Atlanta Falcons are a train wreck defensively so far. I get it to some extent. They’ve played Russ and Dak Prescott, a tough start for any defense. Still, they’ve allowed the second-most passing yards and completions. They’ve yet to intercept a pass and have allowed five passing touchdowns. Some of their DK points given up came from Dak running it in three times, but this is still a poor defense by every metric. If Trubisky can’t have a solid game here, he may as well pack it in. I’m hesitant, but Trubisky is actually cash viable at this salary.

RB – Speaking of cash viable, David Montgomery needs to be squarely in the conversation as well. Still under $6,000, he’s the RB17 in PPR heading into Week 3. He’s 16th in carries and that was missing some snaps in Week 2 after a scary looking injury that turned out to be nothing major. He’s quietly ripping off a 5.0 YPC and has 55 yards on just four receptions. Montgomery has also hit pay dirt just once so far so he could have some type of positive regression coming. The YPC and contributing in the passing game is what Chicago thought they were getting with this draft pick last year.

Atlanta has already allowed the fourth-most receptions to running backs, continuing a trend of the past few seasons. Not only does that bode well for Montgomery, you can look at Tarik Cohen as well. I will admit I’m at a bit of a loss as to why they gave him an extension and then played him just 21 snaps for six touches Sunday, but nobody has accused Matt Nagy of being the best coach ever. He’s a risky GPP play that could take one to the house.

WR – Allen Robinson sits at a disappointing 18.6 DK points through two games but it’s certainly not all his fault. He’s suffering through poor QB play yet again, and sits seventh in air yards across the league right now. The 28.1% target share is great, but some of them just need to be catchable. Robinson leads in red zone targets for the Bears as well with three and it doesn’t appear that Anthony Miller is in the good graces of the coaching staff right now.

Coach Nagy mentioned his drop no less than three times in his press conference, which is not a great sign. He’s actually in danger of being passed in snaps by Javon Wims and he’s played fewer snaps than Darnell Mooney right now. You can’t feel comfortable with him outside of GPP. Mooney and Wims have 10 targets between them, so I’m not exactly looking that direction either.

TE – Now that Jimmy Graham has a game where he only saw one target, I feel more comfortable fading him across the board. He saw seven in Week 1 and three red zone targets, but that seems to be an anomaly. I suppose you can make the argument for him. After all, Dalton Schultz ripped the Falcons apart on Sunday. That moved the Falcons to the second-worst team to the position. Maybe in MME formats you sprinkle in a share but he’s not a primary target with the volatility of the target share.

D/ST – I have no interest in playing defenses against the Falcons offense right now. Atlanta is only allowing the seventh-least sack percentage and that used to be an Achilles heel. With the set of receivers they have and Mat Ryan, it’s foolish to get after them in my eyes. Four of their five sacks came against the Giants which I’m not sure we should weigh all that heavily. Chicago is only getting an 11% pressure rate so far this year.

Cash – Trubisky, Montgomery, Robinson

GPP – Miller, Graham

Falcons

QB – There’s not a quarterback in the league that is getting much less publicity than Matt Ryan right now. He’s thrown for the second most yards and easily sits atop intended air yards. The completion rate is almost 68% and he has a 6:1 TD:INT ratio. Of course, he’s not going to give you much of anything on the ground but you don’t need it. He’s got a ton of weapons and I’m not letting the Bears scare me. They are the fifth-best team as far as DK points allowed but that’s come against Matt Stafford without Kenny Golladay and Daniel Jones. He should come in a little less popular than the top five QB’s in salary which would be a nice bonus.

RB – The husk of Todd Gurley is getting the volume we love but he’s not doing a thing with it. Racking up 35 carries is great news through two games, but the game script couldn’t have gone better for him on Sunday and he could barely muster up six DK points. The lack of involvement in the passing game is scary as well. With Ryan sitting second in attempts, it’s alarming that Gurley has five targets and zero this past week. Given the salary, I’d much prefer to play Montgomery on the other side of the ball and continue to not be interested in Gurley. He’s going to need to score a TD almost every game to make him worth playing.

WR – If the first two weeks are any indication, Russell Gage continues to be a great value. He’s drawing a 23.8% target share and the 8.7 aDOT is actually a good thing. Gage is the intermediate target in the passing game while Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley work the deeper parts of the field. Since Atlanta is so pass heavy, they can support three receivers every game. Gage actually had a TD pass dropped by Julio, who had a rough go on Sunday.

Julio seems to be perpetually questionable but he was limping around pretty good this past game. As long as he’s active, I might actually prefer Ridley at this point. He’s on pace for 32 touchdowns, after all. In more seriousness, Ridley leads in red zone targets on the Falcons and only Aaron Jones has more this year. Julio is always going to get the majority of the coverage and Ridley has more freedom to do the damage. All three receivers are in play without a doubt this week. I rank them Ridley, Gage, Julio given the salaries involved.

*Update* Julio is now a GTD. Gage becomes a dynamite salary saver in theory, but I’m not sure losing Julio helps them immensely. More of the defensive focus shifts to Ridley now and Gage might move out of the slot a bit more.

TE – The hard part is figuring out what to do with Hayden Hurst. The stats look great, but he had a 42 yard touchdown that Dallas just decided to not cover. That’s over 33% of his receiving yards so far this year, although the eight targets was a step in the right direction. Past the broken play, he only had a 4/30 line and that wouldn’t get it done at his price. The Bears have allowed 120 yards and a score so far, but I do prefer other tight ends on this slate.

D/ST – This is a hard pass, even with Trubisky on the other side. If they were cheaper, I could maybe buy into playing them. All three of their turnovers came from Dallas having butter fingers in the first quarter. They have four sacks through two games with just a 14.6% pressure rate. I’ll make a strong effort to play the Pats, for instance.

Cash – Ryan, Gage, Ridley

GPP – Hurst, Julio

Bengals at Eagles, O/U of 46 (Eagles -5)

Bengals

QB – It seems like a long time ago, but Joe Burrow was wildly impressive last Thursday night. He threw the ball 61 times without an interception on a short week with no preseason. If the Bengals can keep him upright, he should be a pretty strong value here. The accuracy can use some work at just a 71.3% on target rate, but one thing that hasn’t gone well so far is his connection with AJ Green.

Out of the 37 incompletions so far for Burrow, 14 have come on targets intended for Green. That just simply won’t stick so the completion rate right under 62% should be coming up. Burrow is third in red zone attempts and fourth in attempts inside the 10, exactly what we want looking at a quarterback. Only two quarterbacks have more intended air yards and the Eagles have given up four passing touchdowns already. There’s a chance this could be the most talented quarterback they’ve faced so far and I really like Burrow in all formats.

RB – I’m writing this on Tuesday and Joe Mixon is already messing with my head. Plenty were frustrated at how much work Gio Bernard got in the last game but Mixon still did get 20 touches. That’s nothing to sneer at, especially since his price has fallen to $5,900. He’s already down almost $1,000 in two weeks, despite 40 total touches. Philly has averaged a little over 100 yards per game on the ground given up in two games. That’s a bit out of character for them and they’ve given up three scores to running backs. I think this might be a good buy low spot for Mixon that has the reputation of being an awful spot (still might be, two games is minuscule sample), but it’s a GPP play only.

WR – The receivers are pretty easy because Tyler Boyd is the cash play and Green is the GPP play. So far, Green has six end zone targets. The next closest is Calvin Ridley who is tied with Mike Gesicki at four. Green also leads the league in air yards by 56 over DeSean Jackson. Unless you think Green is just completely and utterly washed, he is one of the best candidates to blow up with Philly already over 300 yards given up to receivers. Green has also played under 70% of the snaps. Philly is also 12th in yards per attempts surrendered, so it seems like a matter of time before the dam breaks.

Boyd is the safer option and just keeps quietly chugging along. He’s second on the team in targets and has caught 11 out of 13 looks so far. The 6.2 aDOT is perfectly fine for a receiver in his role and in PPR settings, he’s easy to get behind at this price. Boyd is playing almost 80% of his routes in the slot, which explains the bit of an easier chemistry with Burrow early. Philly corner Darius Slay is allowing 1.20 fantasy points per target but hasn’t been targeted much. That could change Sunday and he should matchup with Green, as he only has an 11.9% slot rate this year.

TE – I’m not sure how real he Eagles rank against tight end is since Tyler Higbee shredded them for three touchdowns, but Drew Sample is one of the premier values at tight end this week regardless. The tight end position has combined for 21 targets already, and C.J. Uzomah is done for the year. Sample already leads the team in red zone targets with four and has an end zone target. It’s clear this is a spot that Burrow is leaning on and I have no issues with Sample in any format.

D/ST – There’s not much of a route for success here for the Bengals to my eyes. They have generated a good amount of pressure at over 27% but they aren’t converting it with just two sacks. They also have just one interception so far so even though Philly is highly flawed, I won’t be using them that much.

Cash – Boyd, Sample, Burrow

GPP – Green, Mixon

Eagles

QB – I’m not entirely sure you could have drawn up a worse start for Carson Wentz. You really can’t even just throw your hands up and say he’s been pressured constantly. That might have been true for Week 1, but the overall pressure rate for Wentz is 20.2%. That’s not excuse for a 2:4 TD:INT ratio even two games in, plus a lost fumble. To make matters worse, his completion rate is under 60% and the on target rate is 27th.

At least in the early going, the Bengals have been the third-best team as far as DK points given up to the quarterback. They’ve only allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards but they’ve also faced just the second-fewest attempts. With so many options for quarterback, I’m not running towards Wentz until Philly gets some issues sorted out.

RB – Of those issues, running back is no longer one of them. Miles Sanders returned to the lineup and immediately accounted for 23 touches while playing 77% of the snaps. There’s no concern about the hammy at this point and the Bengals just got destroyed on the ground by the Browns. No team has given up more rushing yards to this point and Cincy has been scored on five times by running backs already. Sanders is still a bargain for his volume and could be a staple in my lineups.

WR – Between Jalen Reagor and DeSean Jackson, they have a combined 13 slot snaps this year. These two are playing outside almost the entire game and Jackson is second in air yards, as we mentioned earlier. The production just has not been there at all. D-JAx has 18 targets to just eight for Reagor, but they only have 13 receptions put together. Jackson also carries the lowest aDOT at 17.6, which seems almost counterproductive at this points. Wentz is not completing enough throws, why keep chucking it downfield like this?

Eventually, the passes will start falling but this is another spot the Bengals have excelled at early. They’ve only allowed the seventh-fewest yards to receivers and just one score. Additionally, they are the third-best team in terms of DK points given up. Jackson is a GPP play, Reagor is a real dart throw.

*Update* Reagor is out with a torn UCL in his thumb

TE – Maybe it shouldn’t be a surprise with Wentz starting slow, but Zach Ertz has been miserable to kick off the 2020 campaign. The targets are there with 14, second-most on the team but that’s turned into eight receptions for 60 yards. Thank goodness for the touchdown in Week 1, because it’s been little else otherwise. He’s behind the slot rate that Dallas Goedert is showing at a 30.7% rate. Goedert also leads the team in targets with a healthy 8.2 aDOT. On the one hand, you’re getting the targets leader for a team for $4,900. On the other, the Eagles offense is dysfunctional at best. I’m leaving the pass catchers to GPP this week.

D/ST – Where’s the upside here to go after the Eagles defense? They’re allowing over 30 points per game, averaging two sacks per game and have one turnover forced. Burrow has been sacked six times but he’s leading the league in attempts. That’s not an egregious rate. I’m not super interested in either defense here.

Cash – Sanders

GPP – Goedert, Jackson, Ertz, Wentz

49ers at Giants, O/U of 42 (49ers -4)

49ers

QB – My goodness the 49ers are beat up. At this point, we’re not expecting Jimmy Garoppolo to suit up with an ankle injury. That would mean Nick Mullens would start and I guess is technically in the running for a GPP spot at such a low price. He does have eight starts under his belt and honestly, he wasn’t abjectly terrible. The completion rate was over 64% and the TD:INT rate was 13:10. He has a great offensive coach in Kyle Shanahan but he’s also operating a pop gun offense with the injuries. New York has allowed five touchdown passes and the argument is 3x is only 15 DK points. I’m going to disagree on the 3x rule this time. Even 20 DK could put you behind the field at that position. You had better nail the rest of your roster if you use Mullens, making him GPP only and risky at that.

RB – Go ahead and give me all the Jerick McKinnon this week. I will say, DraftKings did a relatively solid job of pricing, when they though Tevin Coleman would play. That now doesn’t look like it will happen and McKinnon is going to be the main back. Not only have the Giants allowed 218 yards on the ground, teams have added another 71 yards through the air. McKinnon at $4,900 in a split would have been a question. Without a major split is much easier, and he’s averaging over 10 yards per touch. The explosion looks like it’s still there.

Do not be surprised if Jeff Wilson tilts you off the planet either. In 2019, he had 60 carries and 16 came in the red zone. In 2018, he had 66 attempts and 11 came in the red zone. He will get some run when it matters most I’m betting. If you think he scores multiple times, you could throw him in since San Fran will be looking to run it, protect a backup QB and get off the East Coast.

*Update* There are rumblings that Wilson could get more work than I thought. If going for a minimum back, I’d much prefer him to Burkhead.

WR – I don’t love the price, but I wonder if Kendrick Bourne gets some extra love with Mullens at the helm. When Mullens started eight games in 2018, Bourne wound up leading the 49ers receivers in targets. The rest of the corps is rookie Brandon Aiyuk, Mohamed Sanu who played 13 snaps and Trent Taylor. This is a situation I’m steering clear of outside of Bourne. There’s just far too many unknowns.

TE – San Francisco is saying that George Kittle will be ready to play, but I don’t believe he’ll be in many of my lineups. First, I’m not terribly excited to pay for the highest salaried tight end on his slate. With Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce on the Monday night showdown, Kittle is the only tight end over $6,000. It’s more believing he’s not going to be fully healthy. In 2018, he had 136 targets, 88 receptions, almost 1,400 yards and five scores. Provided Kittle is active, Jordan Reed is likely out of play. He only played 10 snaps in Week 1 and was targeted twice.

*Update* Kittle is out, so Reed is in play. He’s not the free square price he was and has a downgrade at QB, so he’s not a must play.

D/ST – The 49ers defense is missing Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, Richard Sherman, Dee Ford and Jason Verrett is questionable. Even playing he turnover machine that is Daniel Jones, I’m not interested at what is still a premium price. They are way too expensive for my blood given the injuries.

Cash – McKinnon, Reed

GPP – Mullens, Bourne, Wilson

Giants

QB – I’d like to think this is an exploitable spot for Daniel Jones and the Giants offense but I’m not convinced I can get there yet. Turnovers continue to plaque the former Duke Blue Devil, with four already compared to just two touchdowns. The good news is the Niners are beyond banged up and making their second consecutive cross-country trip to a stadium they complained about. Perhaps that’s enough to get Jones back towards the 19.4 DK points he scored in the opener.

He’s just 18th in accuracy for on target throws at 77.3% and 18th in intended air yards. Losing the best player on this offense isn’t going to help, and the pressure rate is 23.4%. There’s a lot of mediocrity baked into the metrics for Jones. If you play him, you’re banking on a San Francisco let down spot and maybe Jones does some work on the ground. He is still averaging over 21 yards per contest rushing.

RB – Oi, this spot is going to get no love from me. Like the other spots for backup running backs, DK priced Dion Lewis and Wayne Gallman to right around $5,000. That wouldn’t have been comfortable to start, and then the Giants signed Devonta Freeman. He’s practicing with them Wednesday and is eligible to play on Sunday. Now, I don’t expect him to have a monster role immediately but he’s going to chip away at Lewis and Gallman. Saquon Barkley had some tough times finding running room. I can’t imagine the other three will fare better.

WR – I want to see how the week goes, but Darius Slayton could once again emerge as a premier target on this slate for value receivers. He was quiet in Week 2 but all three options including Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard were active. Slayton is still the only receiver in triple digits in air yards and is tied for the team lead in targets at 15. He also leads in red zone targets while playing mostly outside. That’s not a big surprise given the skill sets of Shepard and Tate. If Shepard is ruled out, with Slayton and Tate are bargains. I would still prefer Slayton for the red zone work and upside for $400 more, especially since the 49ers will for sure be missing Sherman.

*Update* Shepard is on IR, leaving Slayton as my clear favorite and Tate as a very solid value.

TE – I will admit I’m not sure what to make of Evan Engram. He’s seventh in targets and target share for his team for tight ends, which is great. Engram is tied for second in red zone targets but yet he is 17th in air yards among his position. He checks in as the TE8 for salary and I’m going to have a tough time clicking his name with the other options around him. It’s not the best metric given who the 49ers have faced, but they have allowed one reception and five yards to tight ends so far. That’s not the reason I’m fading Engram, but it’s kind of crazy to see given we’re in Week 3.

D/ST – The Giants defense might be in the sweet spot. They are under $3,000, possibly facing a very depleted offense including a backup and have mustered six sacks and three turnovers so far in two games. They’re only giving up 21.5 points per game and are generating a pressure rate over 19% with a blitz rate just over 23%. As of Tuesday, there sure looks to be worse options on this slate.

Cash – D/ST, Slayton, Tate

GPP – Jones, Engram

Texans at Steelers, O/U 45 (Steelers -4)

Texans

QB – It’s only been two weeks but it sure looks like Deshaun Watson is missing DeAndre Hopkins. Only Russell Wilson has been pressured at a higher rate than Watson and he’s tied for the league lead in being sacked. Wilson is first in on target rate while Watson sits 19th, and he’s under 530 passing yards through two games. That’s 12th so it’s far from terrible but it’s just not exactly what we were expecting.

It’s kind of funny to see Hopkins and Stefon Diggs get traded and their new offenses be thriving while the old ones flounder. To Watson’s credit, he’s still pushing the ball downfield for the 12th most passing yards but given the matchup and receiver issues, I’m not likely to play Watson much if at all.

RB – David Johnson is getting his second straight tough matchup and the Steelers are still one of two teams to hold running backs to under 100 yards rushing so far. Melvin Gordon was one of my least favorite plays last week and if he hadn’t scored a receiving touchdown, he would have scored single-digit DK points. Banking on your running back to score a receiving TD just to come close to value is a bad play. That’s especially true when the offense he’s in is currently 30th in plays per game.

WR – I can’t imagine people are going to be too pumped to go right back to Will Fuller after a goose egg last week. The matchup didn’t help, but neither does this one. He’s still just two snaps behind Randall Cobb for the team lead, and his aDOT looks perfectly fine right now. It’s 12.9 which is right in line with Brandin Cooks at 13.1. Cobb is the slot receiver, with almost 70% of his snaps coming from that spot. That means Fuller should see plenty of Joe Haden. Cobb will have to deal with Steve Nelson, so Cooks might be the best choice almost by default.

TE – I’m not always the biggest fan of using players against he Steelers, but Jordan Akins might be pretty sneaky. Pittsburgh had some issues against Noah Fant and Akins has caught all nine of his targets. If Cobb is being mostly handled in the slot, Akins should be the security blanket for Watson. Pittsburgh can get after the quarterback and tight ends have rolled up a 9/96/1 on them already.

D/ST – I don’t play defenses against the Steelers when they’re at home. They’ve scored 26 points per game so far, which is in the top half of the league. Pittsburgh has also only given up three sacks so far and Houston is only getting a 15.6% pressure rate.

Cash – Akins

GPP – Watson, Cooks, Fuller

Steelers

QB – My thoughts on Ben Roethlisberger really aren’t that different than last week. The metrics show he’s still not cutting the ball loose, sitting in the high 20’s in intended air yards and around the same spot in accuracy. There’s going to come a day when those metrics change for the better and in the meantime, Ben has scored 22 DK in back to back weeks. If he can do that while not being fully unleashed, the bigger games are not far away. He only has one turnover and five touchdowns already as well. He’s fine for cash but is more of a GPP target.

RB – It’s back to the James Conner show, and I will still contend it’s not the best decision. Even though I will cite it at times, YPC isn’t he best stat to use. Conner averaged 6.6 YPC Sunday, which is great until you realize a 59 yard scamper came to put the game on ice. He was at 3.1 YPC for the 15 carries before that. That’s not going to cut it over the long run. However, I mentioned this in Discord Tuesday. It’s one thing to think Benny Snell deserves more work. Maybe he does. It doesn’t matter because the Steelers don’t think he does. End of discussion for fantasy. Conner is the man in this backfield for Week 3, and he’s overpriced in my eyes even though Houston has given up the third-most rushing yards.

WR – Hello, Diontae Johnson. This man is a target machine in the Steelers offense and his price simply didn’t come up enough yet. The list of players that have more targets than Johnson is DeAndre Hopkins and Darren Waller. *Checks Notes*…no that’s it, that’s the list. He’s soaking up a 31.9% target share which is fourth in the NFL and is higher than Antonio Brown achieved in 2016-18. Now, I’m not telling you that Johnson is an AB style talent at all. But the target share is massive and he’s not only barely $5,000, he’s cheaper than JuJu Smith-Schuster by $1,200!! Take advantage before DK catches up.

That isn’t to say ignore JuJu, but he is clearly the GPP target given his salary. The aDOT is just 4.1 while Johnson’s is a little higher at 6.3. JuJu is also the red zone leader in targets with two, but that shouldn’t be the deciding factor with only five red zone targets for the team right now. The gap between James Washington and Chase Claypool got closer in snaps this past week. Claypool played five more and Washington played six fewer. It’s something to keep an eye on after Claypool flashed for an 88-yard touchdown. They are nothing more than darts for now but we want to be on the front end of Claypool possibly emerging.

TE – For a red zone player, Eric Ebron sure isn’t showing it yet. He has zero looks in the red zone and only seven targets overall, just three more than Vance McDonald. Houston has held Kansas City and Baltimore combined to eight receptions, 90 yards and 1 target. Considering those two teams house two of the best tight ends in the league, I’ll pass on Ebron this week again.

D/ST – Pittsburgh has the highest scoring average on the slate, so it’s not hard to see why they are $4,000. The pressure rate is over 42% and the blitz rate is an astounding 61.4%. No other team is over 50%. While I think Watson does manage to burn the blitz a few times for some points, he’s in danger of getting sacked 5+ times in this one and turning the ball over. If you spend up, this is a great spot to do it.

Cash – Ben, Johnson, D/ST

GPP – JuJu, Conner, Claypool, Washington

Titans at Vikings, O/U of 48.5 (Titans -2.5)

Titans

QB – The top five of on target rate is quite the mix. First and fifth make sense since it’s Russ and Tom Brady. Gardner Minshew is second, Josh Allen is fourth (!!) and Ryan Tannehill is third at 85.5% so far. He might only be 22nd in intended air yards but he’s top 10 in completion rate and has yet to turn the ball over. Tannehill absolutely scorched the Jaguars but one fear did come true – volume. He only threw 24 times, which can be tough to rely on. If you’re not throwing for there or four scores, 24 attempts isn’t likely to get the job done. Given that Tannehill is still under $6,000 and Minnesota has already given up the sixth-most passing yards with a 5:1 TD:INT ratio, Tannehill is in play in all formats. Between the new contract and watching Adam Gase ruin another franchise, life is good for Tannehill right now.

RB – Oh, Derrick Henry you fickle man. After bulldozing the NFL at the end of last year, he’s had an….uninspiring start. It’s very weird. He leads the league in attempts, percentage of his team’s attempts, tied for the lead in red zone attempts and is second in rushing yards. Despite all that, 13.8 DK points per game feels super hollow. Maybe it’s because he hasn’t scored and he’s only caught three passes. If you’re not doing at least one of these, it can be tough to post monster games. This is a perfect spot to bounce back. He burned a LOT of people last week, and the Vikings just lost linebacker Anthony Barr. Even with him, they have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards. It’s a good week for Henry to find the end zone for the first time.

WR – Bone bruises in the knee typically cost players more than one week, so my hope for A.J. Brown isn’t there quite yet. It’s a real shame because the Vikings are ripe for being taken advantage of by the receiving corps. Granted a lot of it was from Aaron Rodgers but they have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to the position. Are you sensing a pattern yet for Minnesota’s defense? Corey Davis and Adam Humphries were both fine this past week, with a touchdown each and at least five targets. Combining for 11 of the 24 targets isn’t all that bad. Both are in play with no Brown, and Humphries is especially cheap.

*Update* Brown is out as we mostly expected, so Humphries and Davis make sense. The volume remains the lone concern, since Minnesota is now down multiple cornerbacks as well.

TE – The mountain of a man known as Jonnu Smith can share the end zone with Henry at any moment right now. He’s already collected three scores on 12 targets. That’s definitely not going to sustain through the season, but he does lead the team with three red zone looks and two end zone targets. What’s super interesting is his aDOT is only 3.8. Tennessee is just getting the ball in his hands and letting him do some work. The 86 yards of YAC on 120 total receiving yards is a touch deceiving since a lot came on a blown play, but still. It speaks to the athleticism he has and his growing role in the offense. With all the pass catchers, you need serious efficiency on such a low number of passes.

D/ST – Tennessee is a premier streaming option, but I’m not sure if I’m paying the premium for them in DFS. You can, don’t get me wrong. The Vikings passing game looks like a DISASTER right now. Having said that, the Titans themselves have just two sacks and three turnovers. The pressure rate is under 20% and you’re banking on Minnesota’s passing game still being awful. I’d rather find $100 for Pittsburgh or just go lower.

Cash – Henry, Tannehill, Smith, Humphries

GPP – D/ST, Davis

Vikings

QB – I wanted to put, “LOL, no” and move on but that’s not fair. Kirk Cousins looks completely lost right now. He’s the QB29 in fantasy points right now and has twice the interceptions to touchdowns, not to mention under a 59% completion rate. It’s like he and Josh Allen just switched bodies for this season. Only Baltimore has attempted fewer passes, and that’s by one attempt and because they’re winning in blowouts.

To his slight credit, Cousins is 11th in intended air yards through two weeks. The bad news is he’s 22nd in on target rate and is getting pressured the fifth-most in football. Cousins now lacks the weaponry to deal with pressure or when things go wrong, and it’s showing in a major way. I can’t buy much of a reason to play him at a loaded position. Justin Herbert is 2.6 fantasy points behind Cousins with one fewer game.

RB – Considering how poorly Minnesota’s offense looks so far (20th in points per game), it’s impressive Dalvin Cook is averaging close to 20 DK points per game. He only has 26 carries this season through two games and the game scripts just have not cooperated. Cook only has five red zone rush attempts but he’s cashed those in for three red zone touchdowns.

I think one of the most disappointing aspects is only four targets. Cook had 63 last year so his pace is basically cut in half right now. That’s very odd considering they had to replace 94 targets from Diggs. If the game scripts don’t improve and he’s not involved in the passing game, why pay this much for him? It’s hard to get on board with the options around him.

WR – Well, this can be quick. Adam Thielen is the only receiver that is really worth considering. He owns 52% of the team’s air yards and is the only player that has earned more than seven targets so far. Thielen only has nine catches and he’s plying under 13% in the slot. That should leave him on Malcolm Butler for a good chunk of the game, who has allowed four receptions for 36 yards so far. Being the WR5 in salary leaves him as a volume play but that is about the best I can muster up. There are much better options on paper, but the volume keeps Thielen in the cash considerations.

TE – When I said Thielen was the only receiver with more than seven targets, that included the tight ends. Both Kyle Rudolph and Irv Smith are under three DK points per game right now. They have combined for four receptions, zero red zone targets, zero end zone targets and 35 yards receiving. That’s not worth playing solo, let alone when it’s split between two tight ends. Tennessee has been victimized by tight ends with 150 yards given up and two touchdowns, but it’s a really tough sell from the Minnesota side. I’d go Rudolph if choosing with his 15.2 aDOT and a couple more snaps.

D/ST – Thanks, but no thanks. Tennessee doesn’t turn the ball over hardly at all. Minnesota has no corners, is missing their best pass rusher and just lost a linebacker. There’s just no piece that really fits here. On top of that, the Titans have allowed just one sack per game.

Cash – Thielen

D/ST – Cook, Rudolph

Washington at Browns, O/U of 44 (Browns -7)

Washington

QB – Much like Mullens, Dwayne Haskins looks appealing for the salary he’s going to save you but there’s still an opportunity cost at the position. Haskins hasn’t yet thrown an interception but he’s also averaging just 200 passing yards a game and Washington ranks 24th in attempts per game. That is a BAD mix for fantasy, even in what appears to be a solid matchup on paper. Cleveland has faced the second-most passing attempts and given up the fourth-most yards, but that style of volume isn’t likely to happen in this game. Even in a game where Washington trailed almost instantly last week, Haskins only threw 33 times. That would rank 22nd if he stayed at those attempts all year. Haskins ranks 33rd in on target rate and 15th in intended air yards. At least he’s trying to push it downfield, but his score could kill you at 12-15 DK.

RB – There’s now a clear player in this backfield to target and it’s Antonio Gibson. He took over the lead in snaps and carries for Washington last week and has averaged over 4.0 YPC. That’s not terrible for this offense, although it should be noted that they lost offensive lineman Brandon Scherff. That’s not going to do this offense any favors. Still, Gibson has three red zone rushing attempts and has 20 yards on those attempts. The receiving end of his game hasn’t gotten off the ground yet. He’s only been targets four times but he’s caught three of them. It’s a matter of time until he puts a game together. The Browns have been tough on the ground, allowing the third-fewest rushing yards so far so maybe we wait for another week.

WR – This is quite the interesting spot for Terry McLaurin. He’s the co-leader in targets and leads in air yards. He’s caught 12 of his 17 targets but he’s going to draw a tough assignment. Denzel Ward has only been targeted once so far through two games and he’s given up a reception for 12 yards. With McLaurin only having a 19% slot rate, he likely sees Ward on the majority of snaps. McLaurin is talented enough to warrant GPP consideration at a great price, but I wouldn’t go further than that. Cardinals corner Patrick Peterson hasn’t allowed a reception so McLaurin’s production last week came on other members of the secondary. Dontrelle Inman and Steven Sims are eating into each other too much. They are third and fourth in targets in a low volume passing attack.

TE – We love the volume of targets for Logan Thomas even if the production didn’t follow on Sunday. He’s seen eight and nine the first two weeks, tying him with McLaurin for the team lead. He leads the team in red zone targets with three and end zone targets with two, so the scoring upside is certainly there. This is a great matchup as well, since the Browns have been wrecked by the position so far. They’ve allowed the second-most receptions and the sixth-most yards with three scores. Only the Saints (say hi to Darren Waller) have given up more DK points per game. He was a bit of a disappointment last week but I have zero issues going right back to Thomas this week.

D/ST – This unit is always in play as long as they are healthy. Sure, the Browns are only allowing Baker Mayfield to be pressured 13.6% of the time. Only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have been afforded less pressure in the pocket. Even so, Washington has gotten pressure 24.7% of the time and have the league lead in sacks at 11. Pittsburgh is he only other team in double-digits already. The price is very solid and they are in play for all formats.

Cash – D/ST, Thomas

GPP – McLaurin, Gibson

Browns

QB – We shouldn’t be shocked but Cleveland finds itself near the bottom of the passing attempts ladder this year, leaving Baker Mayfield as just a guy on this slate. Mayfield is 10th in intended air yards but he’s all the way down to 26th in actual passing yards with just a 3:2 TD:INT ratio. Since the Browns are heavy favorites, we shouldn’t expect Mayfield to chuck it all over the yard. He’s been really inaccurate so far as well, ranking 32nd in on target throws. Much was made of the play action scheme that he would be running, but he’s only attempted 17 passes in that play type. That’s 13th in the league and has accounted for 121 yards. Even at a cheap salary, I prefer Tannehill, Trubisky and possibly one other option.

RB – The tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt were on full display last week and they should be again this week. Chubb holds the edge in snaps and rushing attempts, along with red zone carries at 4-2. Hunt is more involved in the passing game, with six receptions to two for Chubb and more targets. Even in total touches, they are neck and neck. Chubb has 34 total touches while Hunt is at 29. This is all to illustrate that both backs are in play every single week. Hunt has carved out 37% of the rushing attempts and a 14.3% target share. Washington has controlled the running game so far with just 145 rushing yards allowed to backs and only 39 yards receiving. Even still, the Browns are ninth in attempts so far and trail only Green Bay in rushing yards per game. Cleveland has ripped off over 175 yards per game on the ground. Hunt is a little easier to fit via salary so I prefer him. Both backs are cash viable, especially on DK where Hunt gets the full PPR scoring.

WR – It was nice to see Odell Beckham get into the end zone on a 43 yard bomb, but he really didn’t do anything else. He’s such a confusing player. He leads the team in target rate (28.6%), air yards (12th in the NFL), percentage of air yards (40.8%) and yet has all of seven receptions for 96 yards. If that one big play doesn’t connect, he’s string at 8/53/0 after two games. It’s just so bizarre that he hasn’t been able to make much work consistently in Cleveland. I don’t particularly want to play him at his salary with the floor that’s involved.

Usually that means I’m playing Jarvis Landry and I don’t have a major issue with it. He’s still chugging along with over 60% of his snaps coming in the slot and an 18.5% target share. The problem there is 18% of a low volume passing offense has equated to nine targets through two games. Unless you see Washington making this one competitive, it might be best to avoid the receivers from this game altogether. If you don’t get the volume, you need scores or efficiency. OBJ brings nothing to the latter part, and Landry has zero red zone targets so far.

TE – Only the Browns could hand out a massive contract for a player and then target him six times through two games. That’s where we’re at with Austin Hooper and he’s fourth on his own team in targets. If you remember back to the Week 1 breakdown, this was a fear. All four of the top targets from the 2019 passing game were back. What role was Hooper going to get? Right now, it appears like it’s not going to be much. Washington’s ranking against the position got thrashed against the Eagles and likely isn’t quite this bad. I don’t see many reasons to play Hooper.

D/ST – The salary here is what absolutely kills me. If they were down near the $3,000 range, I could buy that with the turnover potential from Haskins and missing a key cog in the offensive line. Cleveland is getting pressure on the quarterback, sixth-most in the league. They are also tied for second for QB hurries, so they have potential for sure. I just hate the price.

Cash – Hunt, Chubb

GPP – Landry, D/ST, Beckham

Rams at Bills, O/U of 47.5 (Bills -2)

Rams

QB – It’s not a usual thing to see the Bills around middle of the pack in passing yards given up. They’re up to 19.8 DK points given up to the position after finishing 2019 with a 13.8 mark. It’s a significant jump, and we have to figure out if it’s a hiccup or a trend. What’s a little worrisome is they’ve faced Sam Darnold and Ryan Fitpatrick and have only forced one interception and allowed three touchdowns. They only allowed 15 all of last year.

Having said all that, Jared Goff checks in as a pretty sneaky play this week. He’s not someone you go heavy with, but he’s more talented than the first two quarterbacks the Bills have faced and his coach is far more gifted offensively too. Goff is 30th in intended air yards but his receivers are doing work since he’s ninth in passing yards. Goff is one of four quarterbacks with over 300 yards in YAC already. The Bills are blitzing at a 44% rate so if Goff can get the ball out, his receivers can carry him to a pretty big day. It helps he’s only being pressured 17.2% of the time.

RB – The Bills look much more like expectations in the run game, where they’ve only allowed 133 rushing yards to the running backs. They have been bit a little through the air for 11 receptions for 84 yards and the backfield for the Rams should be more condensed this week. Cam Akers suffered a rib injury and could be unavailable, while Darrell Henderson went up to a 42% snap rate. He made the most of his touches with 121 total yards and a score. My issue is he’s not overly cheap and should still be sharing work with Malcolm Brown, who missed some time with a thumb injury last week. Henderson does have four red zone rushes compared to six for Brown, but Brown has almost double the rush attempts. I’m not likely to play one, but Henderson would be my choice.

*Update* Akers is out

WR – He might be the most expensive of the group, but I much prefer Cooper Kupp in this spot. He’s playing a 48.7% slot rate which is going to leave him off Bills corner Tre White almost half the time. White is one of the few corners I actively avoid, and Robert Woods should see more of him. White has only played in the slot 3% so far so it seems clear that Kupp has the “easiest” path to a good fantasy game. The targets are condensed with Kupp at 11, Woods at 13 and Van Jefferson at eight. Jefferson is only in the slot 22% so Kupp holds the edge there as well. Additionally, Kupp has the lowest aDOT of these three options so with the Bills blitz rate, he really seems like the best fit.

TE – Part of the reason the Bills have let up some passing yards is because Mike Gesicki lit them up last week. Tyler Higbee is coming off a monster game of three touchdowns, but he also only saw five targets. He’s third on the team in targets but does have 21% of the air yards for the team. Buffalo has allowed the third-most receiving yards to the position and the ninth-most DK points. I really don’t care for the price point but I wouldn’t take Higbee out of play. This game could be pretty high scoring and Higbee could be a key part of it.

D/ST – I’m sort of surprised to say this, but I’m a little leery about playing the Rams defense against this Bills offense right now. Josh Allen leads the league in passing yards and they are seventh in points per game. The Bills QB has only been sacked four times and is only being pressured 16.9%. With only two turnovers by Allen, I’ll find another path defensively.

Cash – Kupp

GPP – Goff, Henderson, Higbee, Brown

Bills

QB – Ladies and gentlemen, your passing yards leader heading into Week 3 is Josh Allen. He’s completing over 70% of his passes, sits fifth in on target rate and has seven total touchdowns. Allen has passed for over 300 yards in both games so far and is doing all this work with only two red zone rushes. I can’t find enough good things to say about Allen right now and the trade for Stefon Diggs is paying off in spades.

The Rams have been stout against the quarterback so far, holding Dak Prescott and Wentz to 16 DK points per game, with a 1:2 TD:INT ratio passing. If that scares folks off Allen, so be it. I don’t think he’s a needed play in cash, but he’s in play in all formats again and could be quite the pivot off the two options priced ahead of him.

RB – The split between Devin Singletary and Zack Moss continued for the second straight week. Singletary holds a small advantage in carries at 19 while Moss is at 17. The red zone work is strongly slanted to Moss with seven red zone attempts to three for Singletary. They do both at least have two red zone targets and Singletary does own the overall target lead at 10 – 4.

It’s a tough deal to try and figure out. They both have strengths and weaknesses to hone in. As long as Moss is cheaper, I’ll take my chances that he scores but either player could have a big game at any moment. Miles Sanders proved last week that the Rams can be had in the running game to some extent and both players are pretty affordable. They’ll also be pivots off some chalkier options we’ll get too.

*Update* Moss is a surprise inactive, so Singletary is far more in play without him. I’m not head over heels, but there’s nothing overtly wrong with him.

WR – At cost, John Brown is certainly the easier option to fit in the lineups. Diggs has definitely carried the water for DK points so far, but the metrics point us to these players being closer than we may think. Brown only trails by six targets and they are tied with red zone targets at three each. The air yards aren’t that different either with Brown only being 20 yards behind in that facet. Both players have an air yards% over 33, so they are the 1A and 1B so far in this offense.

Brown has only played 11 snaps in the slot compared to 25 for Diggs. Jalen Ramsey has only played 2.9% of his snaps in the slot but it’s interesting to see what he’s yielded so far. Ramsey has given up 12 receptions on 17 targets for a 1.50 fantasy point per target. Maybe Allen doesn’t test him but Ramsey hasn’t exactly lived up to reputation the first two weeks. I prefer Brown just for salary, but I might double stack in GPP with Allen.

TE – There’s really no logic behind playing Dawson Knox. Not only did he miss the first practice of the week with the effects of a concussion, but he’s just not involved in the offense at all. He’s a distant fifth in target share and has under 3% of his team’s air yards. I’ll skip him for most of the year as things stand.

*Update* Knox is out

D/ST – It’s not often that I don’t particularly like the Bills defense, but this week is one of them. The salary doesn’t make a lot of sense to me with the other options around them. The Bills do have a solid pressure rate at 23.1% and six sacks and two turnovers. The Rams also only have two turnovers so far so this isn’t the spot for them at $3,400.

Cash – Allen, Brown, Diggs

GPP – Singletary

Panthers at Chargers, O/U of 44 (Chargers -6.5)

Panthers

QB – I’m torn on the Teddy Bridgewater play this week. On the one hand, his job isn’t going to be easier without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. He is 14th in on target rate but that’s still 80%, which is more than solid. He’s shedding the “Checkdown Teddy” moniker so far with the ninth-highest intended air yards through two weeks. The 17 DK point average for him isn’t actually that bad since he’s got three turnovers to just one touchdown. Being fourth in total passing yards helps and the Chargers look like a solid matchup. However, they’ve given up the second-most rushing yards and a score on the ground. LA has only given up the 12th fewest passing yards and only two scores, including a game against Patrick Mahomes. Of all the super cheap QB options, Bridgewater is my favorite but I may not dip that far down at all.

RB – It’s a little early in the week to figure out who’s going to be chalk at running back, but Mike Davis could be an option. He played 33% of the snaps last week after CMC left the game and gobbled up targets with eight, third on the team. On DK, that might be enough to warrant a play even if the rushing production isn’t really there. After all, he got all of one carry. Curtis Samuel had four and ripped off 26 yards on those carries. It’s not known yet if Samuel will maintain his involvement but if he gets even eight carries, we need to be interested at $4,000. I don’t believe Davis is all that great but if he’s in the receiving role, we have to pay attention. This is a play that I’m happy with in cash if it’s needed, but would likely fade chalk in GPP.

*Update* Samuel has said he expects the bulk of his work to be at receiver

WR – I find myself really liking Robby Anderson as a pivot in this offense at the Davis price point. He’s only played 19 snaps in the slot and only trails D.J. Moore by four targets on the year. These two receivers have combined for 78% of the team’s air yards, with Moore at 47%. Moore has played even less in the slot and I would think corner Casey Hayward is going to draw the bulk of the coverage. Hayward is under 1.00 fantasy point per target while Chris Harris has only been targeted once. I usually avoid Hayward and would take my chances with Anderson. He has good chemistry with Bridgewater and continues the trend of players performing after leaving the tutelage of Adam Gase.

TE – Ian Thomas has played 84 snaps and has a 2.7% target rate with….two. He’s yet to be targeted in the red zone and has yet to be involved in the offense at all. Even with CMC missing, that’s just 12% of the targets so far. Thomas just isn’t worth a play by any metric we look at.

D/ST – About the only positive thing you could say is the Panthers will face a rookie quarterback on his second start. This unit is dead last in pressure rate at only 4.6% and has zero sacks. With only two turnovers and 32.5 points allowed per game (and it would have been MUCH worse if the Bucs receivers could catch), there’s no real reason to go after them here.

Cash – Davis, Anderson

GPP – Moore, Samuel, Bridgewater

Chargers

QB – DK did a solid job pricing Justin Herbert because if he was around $5,000, the play becomes easier. At almost $6,000, we actually have to decide here. He looked excellent when he got pressed into duty at literally the last second on Sunday. He was on target on 80.6% of his throws which is top 12 right now. If he averaged the same intended air yards as he did last week, he’d be around 10-12 in that category as well. Herbert was not just a game manager when he got his chance, which is encouraging at his price point.

Carolina has only allowed the second-fewest DK points because A. the Bucs receivers and backs dropped three TD’s for Tom Brady last week and B. the Raiders ran the ball down their throats. That later part is a concern here. The Chargers are leading the league in rushing attempts per game and could grind out this game. Herbert does have upside in that facet as well with 18 yards rushing and a score in his first game. With the volume being iffy, I would leave Herbert for GPP but couldn’t complain if that’s the QB you run with in cash.

RB – We talked about the Cleveland tandem both being in play and the exact same thing is in play for the Chargers. Both Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley are tied for fifth in carries with 35 each. Kelley has also doubled up Ekeler in red zone work at an 8-4 ratio, taking up 57% of the red zone attempts. Not only is it a surprise that the ratio of carries is dead even, I’m shocked to see Ekeler only getting five targets to three for Kelley in two weeks. Carolina has continue to be weak against the run from 2019, yielding the sixth-most yards already. Additionally, they lead with six touchdowns given up after 27 last year. Over the last 18 games, they have surrendered 33 touchdowns on the ground. If Davis and others are chalk, Kelley might turn into my favorite pivot. Ekeler is totally viable in all formats as well.

WR – At least for one week, Keenan Allen was happy with a rookie quarterback. He led the team in targets with 10 and air yards with 106. This isn’t to say he was poor in Week 1 but with a rookie signal caller, it’s nice to know he focuses on the top receiver on the team. Mike Williams on the other hand only saw four targets but at least had a 16.0 aDOT to go with it. If you believe that the Chargers will ground and pound, Williams can’t be that exciting. The price point is solid for him and a long TD pays it off instantly, but you saw the floor last week. Allen has a safe floor and likely the higher ceiling this week.

TE – It really seems like Hunter Henry is underpriced on this slate. He saw eight targets with Herbet last week and sits tied for fourth in targets at the position. Henry is the TE11 in scoring because he hasn’t found the end zone yet. Still, being the TE10 in salary seems odd. With the targets among the position, it’s only a matter of time until he has a nice ceiling game. With eight targets in each game so far, consistency shouldn’t be a giant worry. He’s a solid option in all formats even though Carolina has given up under seven DK points per game. That’s a metric to pay attention to with a game against Waller on the resume.

D/ST – We have to consider the Chargers defense in all formats this week. They have the fifth-best pressure rate in football but have only hit home four times. They’ve also only allowed 18 points per game, which is tied for third-best in the league. That’s great news since safety Derwin James was lost in camp.

Cash – Kelley, Ekeler, Allen, Henry, D/ST

GPP – Herbert, Williams

Jets at Colts, O/U of 43.5 (Colts -10.5)

Jets

QB – Goodness the Jets suck. It’s not all Sam Darnold’s fault but it’s nearly impossible to build a case to play him. He’s without his top running back and could be without his top three receivers in this game. No quarterback is going to succeed with the deck stacked against him, especially with a terrible coach. Darnold is 28th in intended air yards, total passing yards but he is 15th in on target rate. I think he’s better than he’s shown statistically, but this is DFS and we need the production. Of all the cheap quarterbacks, Darnold is my least favorite after seeing Kirk Cousins last week.

RB – If you’re going after a running back from this team, it’s going to be GPP only. Knowing that, you may as well go for broke and play La’Mical Perine. He only played nine snaps but he showed explosiveness with almost 20 yards on just three carries. Frank Gore is just totally underwhelming at this point and Perine at least has some potential. I’m not strongly advocating to play him since the Colts have only allowed 142 yards so far and DeForest Buckner has been a great addition to that defense. Perine is definitely an MME play.

WR – By every possible account we have, it sure looks like Jamison Crowder and Breshad Perriman will be out this week. That leaves Chris Hogan, Braxton Berrios and Josh Malone as the three healthy receivers on DK for the Jets. Berrios was the star for this corps in Week 2 with eight targets, 32% of the air yards and a touchdown. If he’s going to see this kind of role, he is a viable salary saver. That’s really the best I can say about a player that has a career 12 receptions. Hogan also had eight targets and led in air yards, but these are gross plays. Someone has to catch the ball I suppose but I don’t have to like it.

*Update* Crowder and Perriman are out

TE – You could make the same argument for Chris Herndon, except he’s not on the field all the time. He’s barely cleared 70% of the snaps so far and has blocked almost 40% of the time on Darnold’s drop backs. If you look at DK scoring, we don’t get points for blocks. Herndon has 11 targets which isn’t all that bad but it terrifies me that he’s staying in to block so much. I will pass with other cheap options on this slate, like Sample and Thomas.

D/ST – For how awful that offense is, the defense isn’t playing all that bad. They are seventh in pressure rate and have six sacks, a respectable number so far. Three turnovers isn’t horrible either but they are giving up almost 30 points. Facing a Colts offense that has one of the better offensive lines isn’t a good match for them either. They’ve only given up two sacks and are averaging almost 120 rushing yards per game. In GPP, the Jets are so cheap you can shoot with them but don’t expect very much.

Cash – None, Berrios and Hogan are closest

GPP – Perine, D/ST

Colts

QB – If you want a nice helping of mediocre for fantasy, Philip Rivers is your man. The Colts are 15th in pass attempts per game, and Rivers is on the wrong side of a 2:3 TD:INT ratio right now. I severely doubt he has to throw a lot in this game, and you saw last week when the game script played along he had 25 passing attempts. It’s not going to do you any good for DFS real often a that volume, especially when he’s 17th in intended air yards. To his credit, he is seventh in on target rate but this game really doesn’t seem like one where he has to push the envelope. Rivers is a pretty easy fade for me, although the Jets have allowed over 24 DK points per game. Rivers could thrash this secondary but only if he needs to.

RB – The balance of power in the Colts backfield didn’t take very long to transfer. I assumed that Nyheim Hines would maintain some of the role we saw in Week 1 after Marlon Mack went down. Apparently, all Jonathan Taylor needed was a week of practice as the number one because he dominated touches and snaps this past week. Hines was third behind Jordan Wilkins in snaps and touched the ball exactly once. By contrast, Taylor had 28 touches and six red zone attempts. The Jets have already gotten tagged for 225 rushing yards and two scores on the ground, along with 14/88/1 through the air. Don’t overthink this one, Taylor should be $7,000 and 28 touches is elite volume behind a great O-line.

WR – I’m focusing more on what Week 2 shows us because Parris Campbell is now missing and the game script should be closer to last week than Week 1. Last week saw rookie Michael Pittman co-lead in targets with six and he got a red zone look. He accounted for 21% of the team’s air yards, which was third behind T.Y. Hilton and Mo Alie-Cox. Pittman also went over 90% of the snaps while Hilton played under 60%. Both Hilton and Pittman have great matchups and Hilton has 38.6% of the team’s air yards on the season. He also leads with two end zone targets, it just hasn’t translated yet. I think both are best served for GPP since the volume should continue to be lower than we like for these players.

TE – We would need Jack Doyle to sit again, but Alie-Cox could be in play here. I blew him off but Rivers loved him, targeting him six times and the tight end responded with a 100+ yard receiving game, the first of his career. He had 35% of the air yards for the Colts last week too, so he was getting some attention down field. A red zone target followed him and at under $4,000, you could do worse. He’s just not my favorite option in this range.

*Update* Doyle now looks like he’ll play

D/ST – How can they not be in play, even at the highest salary on the board? New York is pulling receivers off the street at this point and their receiving tight end can’t go out on routes because he has to block. The Colts have generated the fourth-highest pressure rate on just the second-lowest blitz rate. That is a great combo to attack, and they’ve turned the ball over three times with seven sacks, tied for third-most. About the only negative is they lost safety Malik Hooker, but that’s not enough to worry me.

Cash – Taylor

GPP – Rivers, Pittman, Hilton

Lions at Cardinals, O/U of 55 (Cardinals -5.5)

Lions

QB – This game is really interesting because it’s only a half point behind the Seahawks game for the O/U but I’m betting the ownership isn’t going to be all that close. Matthew Stafford has somehow scored almost the exact same 17.2 DK points in each game so far, and that’s been without receiver Kenny Golladay. Stafford is seventh in intended air yards, which is a great sign without his top receiver. Additionally, he’s managed to still be in 10th in passing yards through the first two weeks. The on target rate doesn’t look spectacular but sitting 12th in air yards per attempt mitigates that a bit. The downfield targets are some of the most valuable for a quarterback.

The Lions have done a great job of not letting Stafford get pressured at just 25th in the league, 17.6%. The Cardinals look like a tough matchup but step further back. They’ve faced Haskins and Jimmy G with no healthy receivers. This is easily the best passing game they’ve faced in the first three games, and they’ve given up a 3:0 TD:INT ratio. Stafford is a great GPP play this week when compared to the chalkier Seahawks game.

RB – It appears that getting game script correct is going to be imperative to choosing a Detroit running back. When they were leading against the Bears, Adrian Peterson had 14 carries but this week he only had seven. Week 2 was when they were getting housed by the Packers so rookie D’Andre Swift got targeted five times for 60 yards. Now, the snaps aren’t going to look good for any of them. Kerryon Johnson hasn’t been over 32% and they are always going to split. The bad news is the red zone work has been split in a big way as well. Peterson has four, Johnson has three and Swift has two. With the high over/under, I do favor Swift but we need to remember Golladay is back. Swift is in play, but I’d pass on others.

WR – So far, Quintez Cephus and Danny Amendola have combined for 37% of the targets and almost 50% of the air yards. Amendola will still maintain some of his role, but Golladay is walking into a massive role like he had last year. He won’t take all of that production, which is why I still like Swift. The fear would be that he could be limited after missing the first two games but $6,200 is not that expensive for a healthy Golladay. Cardinals corner Patrick Peterson hasn’t been great this year either. He’s allowing a 126.6 passer rating when targeted and over 2.0 fantasy points per target. Don’t sweat him with Golladay or Marvin Jones. He’s tied for the target lead without Golladay and his job gets easier with him in. Last season, Jones only had four fewer red zone targets than Golladay so don’t come off him completely just because he’s the number two.

*Update* Golladay is officially questionable

TE – The Cards have already shown immense improvements against the position from last year. They were a sieve, but early they are the 11th best defense to tight ends. T.J. Hockenson has a 12.7% target share but only one red zone look so far. Further, he’s only accounted for 6.9% of the air yards on the team so far. I don’t love his involvement in the passing game so far and I would prefer to stick with the receivers in this game.

D/ST – The Lions have the seventh-worst pressure rate so far and has only got home to the quarterback twice. They have forced no turnovers yet and have a formidable task in front of them with the Arizona offense. I have no interest here.

Cash – None that are needed

GPP – Stafford, Jones, Golladay, Swift

Cardinals

QB – Kyler Murray is the first quarterback in the history of the league to pass for over 500 yards and run for over 150 in the first two games of the year. He’s certainly priced more appropriately this week than last, but that doesn’t mean he’s any less in play. It just means he’s not likely to be the cash chalk that he was last week. Detroit is about mid-pack to the QB but I believe Murray might be about the closest replica of Lamar Jackson in the league. He’s already snagged the lead for rushing yards for quarterbacks and has DeAndre Hopkins at his disposal. The Lions lack the corners to stop the passing game, and the rushing floor is rivaled by a select few. He’s 14th in intended air yards and can be even more accurate, ranking just 21st in on target rate. Murray is a great play in all formats.

RB – It’s really hard not to love Kenyan Drake after seeing Aaron Jones wreck this defense last week. Drake is underpriced in part because he’s yet to find the end zone more than once. He’s getting plenty of work, sitting inside the top five in carries on the season although Chase Edmonds is stealing a little bit of the passing work. Edmonds leads in targets by a 9-4 rate but Drake has been on the field for 65% of the snaps or more in both weeks so far. Drake also has more red zone rushes than anyone on the team, including Murray. Now, that’s not to say Murray can’t hurt Drake a bit. If Murray doesn’t have touchdown runs of 22 and 21 yards, maybe Drake has more than one touchdown. Detroit only trails the Bengals in yards given up to backs on the ground, and they’ve yielded three scores. Drake is an elite play for me this week.

WR – Hopkins is the most expensive receiver on this slate, but that’s what happens when you lead the NFL in targets. Nuk hit pay dirt last week and is hogging 35.7% of the target share through two weeks. The Lions have no corner that scares me in the least, so I won’t tell you Hopkins is a bad play regardless of format. I wish we had been able to see Davante Adams at full strength last week.

The interesting portion of this offense is Christian Kirk. He’s only had nine targets so far but he’s accounted for 36.2% of the team’s air yards and is the clear deep ball threat. If he’s unable to go with an injury, Larry Fitzgerald becomes more viable as a salary saver. Fitzgerald already has 12 targets, second on the team and the loss of Kirk could funnel him a couple extra. The replacement for Kirk’s role would be Andy Isabella, who can fly and get deep. He’s got 58 air yards on just two targets so far this year.

*Update* Kirk is out, so Isabella is worth a shot in large field, MME GPP entries.

TE – Arizona does have a tight end in Dan Arnold, but he has all of six targets through two games. He doesn’t have a red zone look and that’s where Murray’s legs would scare me the most. Arnold isn’t getting a lot of plays called for him close to the end zone.

D/ST – The Cards are tied for third in sacks already and maybe that’s why the price is a little high for my liking. Stafford has been brought down five times but I just wish Arizona was a hair cheaper. They’ve only forced two fumbles and the O/U really doesn’t have me too interested. Sure, they’ve only given up 17.5 points per game but I refer you again to who they’ve played and the circumstances so far.

Cash – Kyler, Drake, Nuk

GPP – Isabella, Fitzgerald

Cowboys at Seahawks, O/U of 55.5 (Seahawks -5)

Cowboys

QB – The Seattle defense hasn’t contained much of anything yet and this is one of the games of the week for fantasy. Featuring the highest O/U on the slate, Dak Prescott should pull some ownership after helping the Cowboys to a massive comeback win last week. Three rushing scores is unlikely to repeat but so far Prescott has been dealing as a passer. Despite sitting 17th in on target rate, Prescott has the third-most passing yards and the sixth-highest intended air yards. Seattle is the only team over 800 passing yards given up so far, but they have faced the most attempts. They still rank as the fourth-worst team for yards per completion and we just saw Cam Newton light them up beyond belief. This game is very stackable, and Prescott is absolutely a great option to do it with.

RB – I don’t think we need to spend the most time on Ezekiel Elliott. He’s third in the league in carries, tied for first in red zone attempts and is eating up over 75% of his team’s rushing attempts. I likely prefer other backs as I want to go with the passing game here, but if Zeke is one of the less popular plays for this game, that’s just a bonus. The Seahawks have allowed the fewest rushing yards to running backs of any team, but Zeke is matchup proof.

WR – Now we get to the fun part, the receivers for Dallas. Amari Cooper is still the lead dog by targets with 27.4% and 36.3% of the air yards. Rookie CeeDee Lamb has carved out 17.9% of the targets and is the slot receiver at a 90.8% slot rate thus far. That has left Michael Gallup with only 10 targets, fifth on the team. However, he should not be overlooked in this game. He owns 27.9% of the air yards and if he’s coming in less popular than Lamb (very likely), he’s an elite GPP pivot. These three and Zeke are carrying 68% of the target share and I actually expect that to go up as the season moves on. The Seahawks have given up 731 yards to receivers so far, easily the most in the league. The next worst team is the Falcons at 524 yards. I’m not great at math, but that’s a 200 yard difference. In large field GPP, Dak with the triple receiver stack is different and can be done. Ask Atlanta from Week 1.

TE – One of the reasons I can get behind the triple stack for Dallas is because I do not believe that Dalton Schultz is going to see another 10 targets in this game. He went from backup to a position that wasn’t heavily used in the passing game to the leading target? That’s highly doubtful to continue. He also led in red zone targets and while I think he could have some role (especially if the Dallas defense can’t figure some things out), I just have a hard time seeing the repeat. Seattle is top-five against the tight end, but they haven’t faced much yet.

D/ST – I’m just not touching either defense from this game, let’s make it pretty easy. They are averaging five DK points combined, Seattle is the only team over 22% in pressure rate and they have five sacks between them. Additionally, there’s four turnovers between the two. We have more appealing options, even though there can be turnovers and sacks in a high-powered offensive game.

Cash – Dak, Zeke, Cooper, Lamb

GPP – Gallup, Schultz

Seahawks

QB – Much like Zeke, we don’t need a lot of time here. Russell Wilson is fifth in passing yards, first in accuracy, first in passing touchdowns with nine, fifth in rushing yards among the position and has one turnover (that was 100% on Greg Olsen). I would play him against any defense right now, and the Cowboys just got ripped apart by Atlanta and Matt Ryan. Oh, and all this has come with Seattle ranking 25th in passing attempts per game. I’m not screaming, you’re screaming in frustration. Just let Russ be the offense, this isn’t that hard.

RB – I’m more comfortable with Chris Carson now that he’s played over 60% of the snaps in a game. Carson only has 23 carries through two games and has been splitting a good bit of work with Carlos Hyde overall, but that seemed to reverse Sunday night. Carson got 17 carries and that’s what we need at this price point. It’s a nice bonus that he’s third in target share on the team and he’s not that bad of a receiver. If he can get a head of steam in any facet of the game, he’s hard to stop. Carson also does lead the team in red zone carries but it is just three. The view is jus like Zeke – I don’t have any issues with Carson, but I prefer the passing game on this side as well.

WR – The featured image gives it away, but I’m not sure I love a player more than DK Metcalf this week. He’s top 15 across the league in air yards and has accounted for 48.2% of Seattle’s air yards. The target share is a healthy 23.3% and he has the most snaps of any receiving option. Dallas has given up the sixth-most yards to receivers along with three scores. Both these defenses are bottom-five in yards given per completion, so this is why we’re leaning on the passing games here.

Tyler Lockett is a pretty good receiver as well and he leads in overall targets on the team. He’s got a 33.6% air yard share and has he exact same matchup Metcalf does. Byron Jones is in Miami so there’s no corner that I fear. The Patriots have a great secondary and it didn’t matter in the least on Sunday.

TE – This isn’t a position that’s been very involved so far. Olsen wasn’t targeted after his drop for the interception and Will Dissly is A. questionable and B. has three targets all season. You need a touchdown from Olsen to be worth it and he has all of one red zone target. Anything can happen in a shootout but this is an unappealing option.

D/ST – Refer to a little further above.

Cash – Russ, Metcalf, Lockett

GPP – Carson

Buccaneers at Broncos, O/U of 43.5 (Buccaneers -6)

Buccaneers

QB – Brady has to be fairly annoyed after last game. His total is super deceiving and there was a higher comfort level in the offense in Week 2. He’s inn line to have a fully healthy Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for the first time, which is not a bad thing. Brady is sixth in accuracy and 16th in intended air yards. The Tampa offensive line has done great work keeping him upright with the lowest pressure rate in football, just 10.7%. Denver is right around middle of the pack in DK points given up and Brady is pretty cheap. I just wonder how many times he throws in this game as they are heavy favorites and only 16th in attempts as it is. Brady is fine, but not a primary target.

RB – I thought we had one more week of Ronald Jones last week but that was not to be. Leonard Fournette took over the snap count lead, had more carries and now has more targets. While LeSean McCoy is going to be the passing down back, Fournette is the man to play in this backfield. He has six targets himself and two of them are in the red zone, to go with three red zone carries. The Broncos have actually yielded the seventh-most rushing yards to backs but just one touchdown, saving their ranking a little bit. Fournette is strictly GPP for me but he’s the only back worth targeting since Coach Bruce Arians blamed Jones for a fumble last week.

WR – I’m still going to prefer Chris Godwin now that he’s ready to go since he’s playing the majority of his snaps from the slot. Godwin sits at a 69% rate compared to under 35% for Mike Evans and Godwin is just a hair cheaper. They both have a near identical aDOT of 9.5 for Evans and 9.4 for Godwin. The red zone targets are equal as well, which is very unhelpful. The Broncos have deployed Essang Bassey in the slot about 53% of the time and he’s allowing a 70% catch rate and a 1.20 points per target. That’s enough for me to head Godwin here.

TE – Well so much for the Brady and Rob Gronkowski reunion. Gronkowski has been an absolute disaster. He’s gotten more snaps than O.J. Howard but Howard has the target lead at 9-4, including three red zone targets to lead the team. Howard also has 18.6% of the team’s air yards. That’s slightly misleading with the injuries to receivers but Howard has a healthy 10.9 aDOT that shouldn’t change too much. The Broncos have allowed two scores to the position but under 100 yards. Howard is GPP, but not a priority.

D/ST – I do like playing the Bucs defense if you spend up. They’ve allowed just 22.5 points per game, have six sacks and four turnovers already. Both Drew Lock and Jeff Driskel are in the top 10 in pressure rate, so the Broncos offensive line have had a bit of a rough time protecting their quarterback. The front is the strength of this unit and we could see some Broncos mistakes.

Cash – Godwin, Evans, D/ST

GPP – Howard, Brady, Fournette

Broncos

QB – I have to give Driskel a bit of respect here because even in the face of the amount of pressure he dealt with, he scored almost 20 DK points. Defenses can have trouble with backup quarterbacks in the middle of a game, but then the next one can prepare for him. Driskel has 315 career attempts with a completion rate under 59% and a 12:7 TD ratio. I can’t build a case for him without Courtland Sutton even at salary.

RB – Poor Melvin Gordon. He’s got the backfield to himself with Phillip Lindsay out of action, but faces the second straight very difficult spot. Tampa has allowed just the fourth-fewest rushing yards to backs, but through the air is a serious weakness. Only one team has allowed more receptions and only one other team has allowed more receiving yards. Gordon only has six targets (tied for fifth on Denver) but he could see more work with Sutton out. With names like Hunt, Mixon and Montgomery around him, Gordon could get overlooked again this week and on DK has enough receiving upside to be a GPP target.

WR – Sutton only has played part of one game, so it’s hard to get an accurate read on his role. He only had six total targets but had 106 air yards, good for 13.2% of the total. It stands to reason that rookie Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are going to be the main cogs in the passing game outside Noah Fant. What is interesting to see is Kamler’s air yards through one game. He’s already third with 14.4% of the team’s total. At bare minimum, he’s quite the salary saver and just one play could pay off his salary in spades. He had seven targets last week as well, so it’s not like it’s only one or two targets. Jeudy leads the team in total targets and is at a solid price point. He’s played almost 70% of his snaps in the slot where he should see a good bit of Bucs corner Sean Murphy-Bunting. He’s allowed a 133.7 passer rating and over three points per target. Either player is a fine GPP target, but I won’t trust Driskel for cash.

*Update* Jeudy is questionable, but he did practice in full Friday

TE – Fant has been excellent through the first two games and sits second in targets on the Broncos. He’s tied with Gordon for the red zone target lead at two and he has two touchdowns on the season. Tampa has been stout against the position so far with under 90 yards allowed and no touchdowns. However, Fant, Jeudy and Hamler are the passing game for the most part. I prefer other options but Fant likely isn’t that popular.

D/ST – Denver only has two sacks on a pressure rate that is under 22% and with the Bus O-Line doing work, I’m not all that interested. The Broncos have only managed two turnovers as well and are sorely missing linebacker Von Miller.

Cash – None

GPP – Jeudy, Gordon, Hamler, Fant

Core Four (Cash Game Based)

Metcalf, Drake, Diontae, Sanders

I moved McKinnon out of the Core because of the rumors of Wilson being more involved. Additionally, I trust Stix when he says Sanders is 60% meaning he’s chalk we should absolutely eat in cash. It turns out he will be a staple in my cash lineups.

Game Stacks

Cowboys/Seahawks – Russ, Metcalf, Gallup, Lockett, Lamb, Cooper, Dak, Zeke, Carson

Lions/Cardinals – Kyler, Nuk, Drake, Jones, Golladay, Stafford, Swift, Kirk/Isabella

Bears/Falcons – Ryan, Ridley, Gage, Montgomery, Robinson, Julio, Trubisky, Hurst

Bengals/Eagles – Burrow, AJG, Boyd, Sanders, Mixon, Sample, Jackson, Goedert, Ertz

Rams/Bills – Allen, Brown, Diggs, Kupp, Higbee, Goff, Henderson

Team Stacks

Steelers – Big Ben, Johnson, JuJu, Conner

Patriots – Cam, Edelman, Byrd, Burkhead

Titans – Henry, Tannehill, Smith

Chargers – Herbert, Kelley, Ekeler, Allen, Henry

Let’s get after it this week my friends! 

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