Adam Strangis MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.18
Welcome back to MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Tuesday 8.18! I’m Adam Strangis and I’m covering for Brian while he’s on vacation the next couple weeks. Tonight, we have another solid slate on DraftKings with big prizes to take down so let’s get started with our top MLB DFS picks for today’s slate!
For those of you new to Picks and Pivots, the goal of this MLB DFS article each and every day is to provide you a “First Look” overview of the slate where we use DraftKings pricing as a baseline to help us get started. Rather than simply write out the “top plays,” this article will focus on slate strategy and roster construction with a GPP mindset to help you get started on your initial builds. Without further ado, let’s dive into today’s slate!
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Starting Pitchers:
SP1
I’d like to start off by thanking Ross Stripling for absolutely nothing last night. It’s the Mariners dude. My word. Alright, let’s get down to business where we have some aces to choose from. You can make a compelling case to use a lineup with both and that’s what I’m looking to do with Yu Darvish and Carlos Carrasco.
Through 24 IP, Darvish is rocking a 30% K rate and just a 4.4% walk rate. The WHIP is just 0.75 in the early going to go along with a massive 16% swinging strike rate. That ranks seventh among starting pitchers this season. The projected Cardinals lineup does have six LHH in it but Darvish has held them to a .208 wOBA and whiffs 27.3% of them. It’s not a giant concern in this spot. Five of those six have K rates over 21% anyways.
SP2
For the part of Carrasco, he draws the MiLB-esque Bucco lineup. Against RHP this season, the Pirates are dead last in average, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, wOBA and wRC+. Not bottom 10. Not bottom five. DEAD. LAST. The K rate is still at 24.5% overall and Carrasco sits at a 32.3% K rate himself. His 52.9% hard contact rate and 1.61 HR/9 aren’t my favorite metrics ever but the cupcake matchup is too good to pass on. It’s rare that I spend up on both pitchers but I’m really behind that idea on this slate.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Stacks and Bats:
If you plug in two ace pitchers, you’re looking at $3,700 per player and likely wondering where I’m going with this. Fortunately, we have two stacks that fit perfectly together positionally and salary-wise. We kick it off with Red Sox LHH. Yes, the Sox are really having a rough go of it but Phillies starter Zach Eflin has always bled production to LHH. In 2019, 319 LHH hit him for a .356 wOBA, .859 OPS and a 2.17 HR/9. He’s faced 21 LHH so far and they have a .623 wOBA and two bombs already. Plugging in an under-priced Rafael Devers along with Mitch Moreland and Alex Verdugo gives us a nice base. All three are over a .210 ISO and a .340 wOBA vs RHP.
We still need some big savings so we turn to a Picks and Pivots standby – the Los Angeles Dodgers. Seattle starter Marco Gonzales has a K rate under 19% along with fly ball and hard hit rates well over 40%. AJ Pollock, Chris Taylor and Kike Hernandez all have wOBA’s over .330 and the first two have ISO’s over .220. They fit beautifully with our two aces tonight.
MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Wrap up
Hopefully I channeled Brian today with the double ace/Dodgers approach because I believe that’s how he would go after this one. The lower tier pitching is really tough to find someone I love. Seeing as we can fit two offenses with firepower potential, I don’t see much of a reason to not throw two aces tonight. The potential is there for both to be in the top five scorers of the night.
Stick around in Discord today and let’s talk some baseball!
Let’s get it tonight my friends!
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